Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
*Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya...@gmail.com wrote: -- *From: *Sonny John sonny.j...@e-samuel.com *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock GS Rating Current Px * *12 Month Target Px ** * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell**Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510 ** Idr **2,800* ** *Key Summary Points:-* · * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, “Global: Energy: Oil—Recovery and relapse, v2”). · * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia’s new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. · * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. · * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. · * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China’s small mines restarting operations. - *Latest Research* ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities and/or damages for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of the entities concerned.
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya...@... wrote: -- *From: *Sonny John sonny.j...@... *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock GS Rating Current Px * *12 Month Target Px ** * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell**Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510 ** Idr **2,800* ** *Key Summary Points:-* · * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: OilRecovery and relapse, v2). · * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. · * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. · * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. · * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations. - *Latest Research* ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities and/or damages for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of the entities concerned.
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
*I think so. Selling up to 2800? [?]* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo.com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya...@... wrote: -- *From: *Sonny John sonny.j...@... *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock GS Rating Current Px * *12 Month Target Px ** * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell**Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510 ** Idr **2,800* ** *Key Summary Points:-* · * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oil—Recovery and relapse, v2). · * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. · * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. · * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. · * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations. - *Latest Research* ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities and/or damages for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of the entities concerned. + + + + + + +
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!!--- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.com wrote:From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.comSubject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell BumiTo: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comDate: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM
I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote:
itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI
--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "It's Elaine!" elainesui83@ ... wrote:
*Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?*
On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:
- -
*From: *"Sonny John" sonny.j...@. ..
*Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700
*Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on
Bumi and Adaro.
*Stock GS RatingCurrent Px *
*12 Month Target Px ** *
*Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell **Idr **2,850
**Idr **2,300*
*Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510**
Idr **2,800*
**
*Key Summary Points:-*
· * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities*
Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices
(88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated
since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we
raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl,
respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September
24, 2009, "Global: Energy: Oil—Recovery and relapse, v2").
· * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion*
Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal
coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's
new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early
2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in
export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers
may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal
supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely
to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus.
· * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance*
Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal
coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability
of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently
thermal
coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below
the
historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual
average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in
2009E
to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral
stance.
· * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi*
Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings
growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate
Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt
load
and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral.
· * **Risks*
Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the
global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing
coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect;
downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations.
- *Latest Research*
ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf
Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD.
CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission
is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying,
review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or
the information contained in it is strictly prohibited.
The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender
that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its
subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances
of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries
does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities and/or damages
for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of the entities
concerned.
- -
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: OilâRecovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. ·    * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations.   - *Latest Research*  ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD.   CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
biji duren apa biji semangka? --- On Wed, 10/21/09, troyan troyan...@yahoo.com wrote: From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 7:09 AM Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ ... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. ·    * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
adro jadi decoy hari ini nyuruh orang pindah barang biar gampang dipungut..kira2 masuk kemana u already know lah heheheDario Amran--- Pada Rab, 21/10/09, Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@yahoo.com menulis:
Dari: Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@yahoo.comJudul: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell BumiKepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comTanggal: Rabu, 21 Oktober, 2009, 2:04 PM
4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!!--- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.com wrote:
From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.comSubject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell BumiTo: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.comDate: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM
I think so. Selling up to 2800?
On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote:
itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI--- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, "It's Elaine!" elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote: - - *From: *"Sonny John" sonny.j...@. .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700
*Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock GS RatingCurrent Px * *12 Month Target Px ** * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300* *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510
** Idr **2,800* ** *Key Summary Points:-* · * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, "Global: Energy: Oil—Recovery and relapse, v2"). · * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing
completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. · * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view
on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. · * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its
low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. · * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations.- *Latest Research* ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD.
CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances
of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries does not take any
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Biji kenari kayanya Hehe... *kaboerr -Original Message- From: Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@yahoo.com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:10:20 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi biji duren apa biji semangka? --- On Wed, 10/21/09, troyan troyan...@yahoo.com wrote: From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 7:09 AM Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ ... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Sebenernya gak penting banget apa semangka, apa duren, apa kenari. yang penting comfort. gitu lho... :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Joe Martin milis.s4...@... wrote: Biji kenari kayanya Hehe... *kaboerr -Original Message- From: Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@... Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:10:20 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi biji duren apa biji semangka? --- On Wed, 10/21/09, troyan troyan...@... wrote: From: troyan troyan...@... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 7:09 AM  Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ ... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM àI think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote: àà- - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock àààààààààààààGS Rating àààààààCurrent Px ààà* *12 Month Target Px àà* àààà* * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ) àààà**Sell àààààààààà**Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 ààà* *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) àààà**Buy àààààààààà**Idr **1,510 ààà** Idr **2,800* * àààààààà* *Key Summary Points:-* ÷ ààà* **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilââ¬Recovery and relapse, v2). ÷ ààà* **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ÷ ààà* **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Emang mendingan beli ADRO sih...kemarin ADRO dapet utangan US$800 juta bunga cuma 7.6%...BUMI ngutang US$1.9 M bunga 19% (jauh amat spreadnya padahal sama2 dollar)... laba operasional BUMI bakalan banyak buat bayar utang (jangan2 owner BUMI juga kreditornya cuma pake nama house asing kayak CS , CIC , Samuel or whatever )...laba bersih bakalan makin kecil ..PERnya tambah mahal ...dividen tambah dikit .. From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:09:13 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ ... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. ·    * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo.com wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesu...@... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. ·    * **Risks* Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
HAYO disini yang switch bumi ke adro sapa acung kan jempol --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Joe Martin milis.s4...@... wrote: Biji kenari kayanya Hehe... *kaboerr -Original Message- From: Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@... Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:10:20 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi biji duren apa biji semangka? --- On Wed, 10/21/09, troyan troyan...@... wrote: From: troyan troyan...@... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 7:09 AM  Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ ... wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM àI think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote: àà- - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock àààààààààààààGS Rating àààààààCurrent Px ààà* *12 Month Target Px àà* àààà* * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ) àààà**Sell àààààààààà**Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 ààà* *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) àààà**Buy àààààààààà**Idr **1,510 ààà** Idr **2,800* * àààààààà* *Key Summary Points:-* ÷ ààà* **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilââ¬Recovery and relapse, v2). ÷ ààà* **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ÷ ààà* **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis
RE: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Hai EL, Artinya EL sudah tahu duluan report ini 3 bulan yang lalu? Cool.. From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of It's Elaine! Sent: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:40 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya...@gmail.com wrote: _ From: Sonny John sonny.j...@e-samuel.com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 Subject: FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. Stock GS Rating Current Px 12 Month Target Px Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)SellIdr 2,850 Idr 2,300 Adaro (ADRO.IJ) Buy Idr 1,510 Idr 2,800 Key Summary Points:- . Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oil-Recovery and relapse, v2). . No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. . Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. . Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam at Neutral. . Risks Upside risks to our views and price targets include a disruption in the global coal supply chain (e.g., from bad weather, port congestion) causing coal prices to spike or China coal demand being stronger than we expect; downside risks include China's small mines restarting operations. * Latest Research ASEAN Metals Mining Coal 21 OCt.pdf Goldman, Sachs Co. Member SIPC/NASD. CONFIDENTIALITY: The information contained in or attached to this electronic transmission is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended for the named recipient(s) only. If you are not the named recipient, you are hereby notified that any distribution, copying, review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of this electronic transmission or the information contained in it is strictly prohibited. The information expressed herein may contain the private views and opinions of the sender that does not constitute the formal views and opinions of PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries, and should not in any ways be construed as the views, offers, or acceptances of these entities, unless specifically stated. PT. Danareksa (Persero) and its subsidiaries does not take any responsibilities nor accepts any claims of liabilities and/or damages for statements which are clearly the sender's own and not made on behalf of the entities concerned.
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
yah, gimana decoy bisa efektif, base camp gak dibumihanguskan at once :) - Original Message - From: dario kurniawan To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, October 21, 2009 2:11 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi adro jadi decoy hari ini nyuruh orang pindah barang biar gampang dipungut..kira2 masuk kemana u already know lah hehehe Dario Amran --- Pada Rab, 21/10/09, Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@yahoo.com menulis: Dari: Vincent Chase chase.vinc...@yahoo.com Judul: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Rabu, 21 Oktober, 2009, 2:04 PM 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.com wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesu...@gmail.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ ... wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote: - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.j...@. .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock GS Rating Current Px * *12 Month Target Px ** * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)**Sell **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300 * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ) **Buy **Idr **1,510 ** Idr **2,800* ** *Key Summary Points:-* · * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oil—Recovery and relapse, v2). · * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. · * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Djokro Wijaja stocksuc...@... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@... wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: OilâRecovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth trend as its low-priced legacy contracts expire. Meanwhile, we rate Bumi Resources as Sell due to rising capital costs, its increasing debt load and declining ROIC. We initiate on Straits Asia and Bukit Asam
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Bumi dah mau melejit bijinya dah keteken keras From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:23:08 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Djokro Wijaja stocksucker@ ... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@. .. wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings
RE: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
jend. arto dah mulai jualan adro nya 1560-1550 ya.. pindahin dong jendral.. To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com From: andre...@yahoo.com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:28:03 -0700 Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Bumi dah mau melejit bijinya dah keteken keras From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:23:08 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Djokro Wijaja stocksucker@ ... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@. .. wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny..john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Mijet aja dah, kaga usah dagang hari ini *matiin notebook, kaboe pijet... Sori bro andre kejapri... -Original Message- From: Andre Andre andre...@yahoo.com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:28:03 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Bumi dah mau melejit bijinya dah keteken keras From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:23:08 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Djokro Wijaja stocksucker@ ... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@. .. wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Wakkakakaak Jadi inget sambel goreng ati Ini sambel goreng biji Pi all. -Original Message- From: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 07:23:08 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Djokro Wijaja stocksuc...@... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@... wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
...bg dari sudut buaya? kok spt nya BUAYA nya diem aja..? masih tidur gak yah? --- Pada Rab, 21/10/09, troyan troyan...@yahoo.com menulis: Dari: troyan troyan...@yahoo.com Judul: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Tanggal: Rabu, 21 Oktober, 2009, 2:23 PM Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Djokro Wijaja stocksucker@ ... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@. .. wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny.john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20% of oil on an energy-equivalent basis, which is below the historical average of 26% (the historical range is 14%-51%). On an annual average basis we see coal as a percentage of oil declining from 25% in 2009E to 17% in 2011E. We are initiating coverage on the sector with a neutral stance. ·    * **Stock selective approach; Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi* Adaro is our top pick, given attractive valuations and a strong earnings growth
Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi
Melejit juga biji BUMI From: Joe Martin milis.s4...@gmail.com To: Ob obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:32:52 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Mijet aja dah, kaga usah dagang hari ini *matiin notebook, kaboe pijet... Sori bro andre kejapri From: Andre Andre andre...@yahoo. com Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:28:03 -0700 (PDT) To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Bumi dah mau melejit bijinya dah keteken keras From: troyan troyan...@yahoo. com To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Sent: Wed, October 21, 2009 2:23:08 PM Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Keknya udah pernah nyoba ya ? :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, Djokro Wijaja stocksucker@ ... wrote: Service nya di celup baskom aer anget + garem hehehehhe . Habis itu di iris tipis tipis campur cuka + lada dan di goreng sampe gosong . heheheheh . Canda yah :)) On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 2:09 PM, troyan troyan...@. .. wrote: Bisa aja sih 2800, tapi ane sih udah jualan :D ya kalo naik lagi mungkin belum rejeki ane, yang penting cukuplah untuk service biji :D --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com, Vincent Chase chase.vincent@ wrote: 4800 KOMPOR MODE ON!!! --- On Wed, 10/21/09, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: From: It's Elaine! elainesui83@ Subject: Re: [ob] FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com obrolan-bandar% 40yahoogroups. com Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2009, 6:55 AM  I think so. Selling up to 2800? On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 1:46 PM, troyan troyan...@yahoo. com wrote: itu karena dia mau jualan ADRO yang udah beli dr 3 bulan lalu dan mau beli BUMI --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com, It's Elaine! elainesui83@ wrote: *Wow it took 3 months for this one to be avail to public?* On Wed, Oct 21, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Sanjaya mysanjaya.hd@ ... wrote:   - - *From: *Sonny John sonny..john@ .. *Date: *Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:17:40 +0700 *Subject: *FW: Goldman: Buy Adaro, Sell Bumi Please see latest GS research on ASEAN Metals and Mining (Coal), and on Bumi and Adaro. *Stock              GS Rating        Current Px    * *12 Month Target Px   *     * * *Bumi Resources (BUMI.IJ)     **Sell           **Idr **2,850 **Idr **2,300    * *Adaro (ADRO.IJ)     **Buy           **Idr **1,510    ** Idr **2,800* *         * *Key Summary Points:-* ·    * **Rising oil prices are positive for coal equities* Historically, thermal coal prices have been highly correlated to oil prices (88% over the past 10 years), and so have coal stock prices (87% correlated since 2003). We are positive on the outlook for oil, and last month we raised our 2010E and 2011E oil price forecasts to US$90/bbl and US$110/bbl, respectively, on stronger demand projections (our report from September 24, 2009, Global: Energy: Oilâ€Recovery and relapse, v2). ·    * **No major supply destruction, some projects nearing completion* Despite the downturn, there has not been any major reduction in thermal coal capex and in fact several projects are nearing completion. Australia's new third coal port terminal (NCIG) is expected to ship first coal in early 2010E, with a full ramp-up by 2011 (representing a 30% expansion in export capacity). Meanwhile, we estimate that Indonesian coal producers may increase capacity by 40% by year-end 2010E. Our global thermal coal supply-demand estimates indicate that the supply surplus in 2009E is likely to narrow in 2010E due to stronger demand, but it is still in surplus. ·    * **Coal price upcycle may lag oil, initiate with neutral stance* Given our positive view on oil prices, we are forecasting higher thermal coal prices over 2009E-2011E. However, with a stronger supply availability of coal, we believe that the coal price cycle may lag oil. Currently thermal coal prices are 20
