Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Tadi gw lagi ke dr. Bukan CL Kemarin nadahin di 2775 karena deket support. Kata MBAH PGAS batal, ya udah Tlpn Broker sell 8225 :P Tapi PGAS sdh mentok chart MBAH dan ada GAP 2675 :) (cerita nya nakut2in :P ) Mbah, Bilangin ANTM dan Hajatan BUMI batal juga dong ...BD Contra MBAH nih .. Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -Original Message- From: Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish(tm) -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000(R) -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Boss REI dah mulai selingkuh selingkuh trading selingkuh dari 2 istrinya ptba antm :) On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 6:54 AM, Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com wrote: Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan…. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish™ -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas. __
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Dulu waktu belum stock split ada yang pernah bilang, valuasi PGAS 25 rebong. Agak bombastis memang. Tapi gara-gara itu saya gak pernah cutloss PGAS. Waktu IHSG terjun ke laut juga harganya gak jeblok-jeblok amat. Mungkin pegang PGAS kudu lebih sabar daripada pegang PTBA ya, Pak. Satu lagi yang kudu sabar tapi menjanjikan adalah JSMR. Moga-moga aja keduanya happy end, mengikuti PTBA-nya Pak Rei ke 20 rebong, hehehe. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -Original Message- From: Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish(tm) -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000(R) -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Emang target kita 3000 kan? Hehehe, Ga nyangka kalo mau nge gas lagi, apalagi ada TP baru 4000 dari JP Morgan. Saya kemaren sempet jual di 2950 karena saya pikir uda sampe target. Emang dibagi rejekinya segitu, yah kita syukuri aja de, rejeki yg kita peroleh. Salam Mh Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® -Original Message- From: Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish(tm) -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000(R) -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
RE: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Yang harga bawah minggu lalu saya jual 2850, Senin saya masuk lagi ave di 2900, besoknya begitu turun ke 2825 langsung CL. Cengli lah rugi 3 point, toh kemarin udah cuan. Ya begitulah trading, memang berat untuk disiplin. Udah disiplin CL tapi harga malah balik arah. Nggak usah disesali, namanya belum rejeki. Lain kali pasti dikasih lagi sama Yang Di Atas. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 1:03 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Tadi gw lagi ke dr. Bukan CL Kemarin nadahin di 2775 karena deket support. Kata MBAH PGAS batal, ya udah Tlpn Broker sell 8225 :P Tapi PGAS sdh mentok chart MBAH dan ada GAP 2675 :) (cerita nya nakut2in :P ) Mbah, Bilangin ANTM dan Hajatan BUMI batal juga dong ...BD Contra MBAH nih .. Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _ From: Rei Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 +0700 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail. mailto:yudiz...@gmail.com com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan.. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _ From: obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM To: obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _ From: Kurniadi Oen Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 Subject: FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Model revisited: We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. Gas supply is likely to be adequate: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. Ability to cover rising gas cost: One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) Risks to our view and PT: (1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Oh tenang pak...sedikit koq...kan iseng2 boleh :-) Ptba Antm tetap malah nambah On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 1:05 PM, Pak AA pakaa2...@gmail.com wrote: Boss REI dah mulai selingkuh selingkuh trading selingkuh dari 2 istrinya ptba antm :) On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 6:54 AM, Rei highwaysta...@gmail.com wrote: Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan…. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish™ -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas. __
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Sekarang I pasang ranjau saja. Tiap subuh order Buy di daerah GAP aja deh.. Siapa tau dapet. PGAS, SGRO :P Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -Original Message- From: Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 13:14:50 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Yang harga bawah minggu lalu saya jual 2850, Senin saya masuk lagi ave di 2900, besoknya begitu turun ke 2825 langsung CL. Cengli lah rugi 3 point, toh kemarin udah cuan. Ya begitulah trading, memang berat untuk disiplin. Udah disiplin CL tapi harga malah balik arah. Nggak usah disesali, namanya belum rejeki. Lain kali pasti dikasih lagi sama Yang Di Atas. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 1:03 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Tadi gw lagi ke dr. Bukan CL Kemarin nadahin di 2775 karena deket support. Kata MBAH PGAS batal, ya udah Tlpn Broker sell 8225 :P Tapi PGAS sdh mentok chart MBAH dan ada GAP 2675 :) (cerita nya nakut2in :P ) Mbah, Bilangin ANTM dan Hajatan BUMI batal juga dong ...BD Contra MBAH nih .. Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _ From: Rei Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 +0700 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail. mailto:yudiz...@gmail.com com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan.. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _ From: obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM To: obrolan-bandar@ mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _ From: Kurniadi Oen Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 Subject: FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Model revisited: We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. Gas supply is likely to be adequate: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. Ability to cover rising gas cost: One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) Risks to our view and PT: (1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Emang kalo pasang ordernya subuh dapet antrian pertama? Kalo pake HOTS malah dapet antrian buncit tuh, statusnya bakalan SENDING sampai 5 menitan. Mending masukin pas di jam 9.30 manual Q: Cumi-cumi mempunyai delapan kaki atau delapan tangan? On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 1:19 PM, Ruz7 indeksbei3...@gmail.com wrote: Sekarang I pasang ranjau saja. Tiap subuh order Buy di daerah GAP aja deh.. Siapa tau dapet. PGAS, SGRO :P Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Yudizz *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 13:14:50 +0700 *To*: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject*: RE: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Yang harga bawah minggu lalu saya jual 2850, Senin saya masuk lagi ave di 2900, besoknya begitu turun ke 2825 langsung CL. Cengli lah rugi 3 point, toh kemarin udah cuan. Ya begitulah trading, memang berat untuk disiplin. Udah disiplin CL tapi harga malah balik arah. Nggak usah disesali, namanya belum rejeki. Lain kali pasti dikasih lagi sama Yang Di Atas. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish™ -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 1:03 PM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Tadi gw lagi ke dr. Bukan CL Kemarin nadahin di 2775 karena deket support. Kata MBAH PGAS batal, ya udah Tlpn Broker sell 8225 :P Tapi PGAS sdh mentok chart MBAH dan ada GAP 2675 :) (cerita nya nakut2in :P ) Mbah, Bilangin ANTM dan Hajatan BUMI batal juga dong ...BD Contra MBAH nih .. Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Rei *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 +0700 *To*: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject*: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan…. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish™ -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com]*on Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Amin pak Ricky! Semoga semua happy ending... On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 1:06 PM, Ricky Wakiman ricky.waki...@yahoo.co.idwrote: Dulu waktu belum stock split ada yang pernah bilang, valuasi PGAS 25 rebong. Agak bombastis memang. Tapi gara-gara itu saya gak pernah cutloss PGAS. Waktu IHSG terjun ke laut juga harganya gak jeblok-jeblok amat. Mungkin pegang PGAS kudu lebih sabar daripada pegang PTBA ya, Pak. Satu lagi yang kudu sabar tapi menjanjikan adalah JSMR. Moga-moga aja keduanya happy end, mengikuti PTBA-nya Pak Rei ke 20 rebong, hehehe. Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -- *From*: Rei *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 12:54:38 +0700 *To*: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject*: Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan…. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish™ -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
[ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000® -Original Message- From: Kurniadi Oen kurniadi...@gmail.com Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh • *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. • *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. • *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. • *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
RE: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan.. Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI BerbullishT _ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ruz7 Sent: Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000R _ From: Kurniadi Oen Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 Subject: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 Subject: FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh * Model revisited: We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. * Gas supply is likely to be adequate: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. * Ability to cover rising gas cost: One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. * Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) Risks to our view and PT: (1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
Re: [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh
Hohoho cl nya di Pgas toh? Saya tadi jual 2825 setelah terima e-mail Mbah, jaga2 aja...eh malah 3025! Memang gak hoki dah...yg penting sdh cuan walau dikit buat ngopi2 doang :-) Pak, ptba ke berapa nih? Japri aja deh gak usah via milis hehe On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 11:49 AM, Yudizz yudiz...@gmail.com wrote: Hehehe, kegocek ya..?? Kemarin gue habis CL malah naik kenceng, edan Regards, Yudizz Powered by BEI Berbullish(tm) -- *From:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto: obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Ruz7 *Sent:* Wednesday, June 03, 2009 11:38 AM *To:* obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* [ob] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh Curngg Powered By FREN BondBerry. (Bayar Pake Daun). Indeksbei3000(R) -- *From*: Kurniadi Oen *Date*: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 11:31:06 +0700 *Subject*: [bei-investorclub-jkt] JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh [1 Attachment] -bussyeeet deh pgas target price satu tahun dinaikkan jadi rp 4400 ,mana udah dijualin murah2 *Subject:* FW: FW: JP Morgan - Perusahaan Gas Negara; Raise PT to Rp 4400/sh *Model revisited: *We revisit our model and incorporate the following new assumptions into it: (1) Raise FY09E volume from 705MMScfd to 750MMscfd and change LT volume forecast. (2) Adjust the long-term gas selling price upwards. (3) Adjust the long-term cost of gas to incorporate the gas from LNG facilities. (4) Extend the PT time horizon from Dec-09 to Jun-10. (5) Adjust beta for the valuation from 1.118 to 1.102. *Gas supply is likely to be adequate*: One concern among investors is that PGAS gas supply could potentially run out by FY12E. However, we view that there is potential that PGAS could secure new gas contracts in the form of Lematang (50MMScfd), Jambi Merang (85-100MMScfd), and Suban phase 3 of Conoco Phillips (300MMScfd). In the worst scenario that PGAS failed to secure the large supply such as Suban phase 3, its LNG receiving terminal projects could provide 300MMScfd of gas which could replace supply from Suban. *Ability to cover rising gas cost: *One could argue that the cost of gas could rise as the new contracts are signed and the LNG gas will be priced at international level. Historically (since FY00) selling price has risen by 9.2% CAGR while cost of gas has risen by 3.7%CAGR. With this, we believe PGAS should be able to pass on higher cost of gas to its customers. Our channel check has indicated that there is a high likelihood that PGAS will be able to pass on the high purchase price of LNG to PLN. Note: Only LNG diesel can be used to supply peak hour grid, and LNG is cheaper than diesel despite commanding higher price than that of pipe gas. *Raise PT to Rp4,400 and maintain OW: *We continue to be bullish on PGAS on the back of 31.9% CAGR in profit growth from FY08-FY13E; we have extended and raised of June-10 DCF based PT from Rp3,000 to Rp4,400. (Risk free rate =11.5%, risk premium = 5.5% and terminal growth rate = 7.0%) *Risks to our view and PT: *(1) Lower than expected distribution volume, distribution margin and transmission fee. (2) Higher than expected cost of gas.
