Rightist pollsters bend to reality as Chavez victory nears
From www.counterpunch.org Anti-Chavez Pollsters Panic Fix Numbers; Reinvent Venezuela By JUSTIN DELACOUR As the August 15 referendum on whether Hugo Chavez should continue as president looms in Venezuela, anti-Chavez pollsters have begun reluctantly issuing polls showing Chavez in the lead. In June, the Washington-D.C. based polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Inc.--working on behalf of the opposition--conducted a poll showing that 49 percent of Venezuela's registered voters would support President Chavez versus 44 percent that would vote to recall him. Another June poll by the Venezuelan firm DATOS--also commissioned by the opposition--gave Chavez 51 percent of support, against 39 percent who would vote against him. Recently Chavez challenged other Venezuelan polling firms aligned to the opposition to release the results of their latest polls. Venezuelan Information Minister Jesse Chacon has claimed to have copies of these polls--which favor Chavez--and has threatened to publish them if the polling firms do not come forward. One should not mistakenly conclude that these polls vindicate the anti-Chavez pollsters as unbiased.Rather, in the hour of truth, some pollsters--after having long engaged in highly biased polling designed to demoralize the government's supporters and to embolden the opposition--will issue less biased polls in a last-ditch effort to salvage their own credibility in the face of impending defeat. In early February 2003, the anti-Chavez Venezuelan polling firms Datanalisis and Consultores 21 held a joint press conference in Caracas claiming to be neutral partiesin the country's deeply polarized political conflict. Just over two weeks before the press conference, I reported that Datanalisis' President Jose Antonio Gil Yepes had told the Los Angeles Times in July 2002 that Chavez has to be killed.I pointed out that a simple glance at Datanalisis' website revealed the kind of blatant political partisanship that one normally does not associate with respectable polling operations(as this report goes to print, Datanalisis' website has been running John Kerry's Chavez-bashing misstatement at the top of their newscolumn for over a month). Since I first reported on Datanalisis' blatant partisanship and biased polling, Gil Yepes has mysteriously disappeared as a public spokesperson for his company (although he occasionally pops up brandishing a letter from L.A. Times correspondent T. Christian Miller, who now supposedly claims that the pollster did not have criminal intent when he told Miller that Chavez has to be killed). With Gil Yepes' reputation in question, the job of restoring Datanalisis' mythic neutrality was left to company director Luis Vicente Leon. Never mind that Leon had also been making blatantly anti-Chavez statements to the press long before Gil Yepes blurted out his homicidal fantasies to the L.A. Times. In Venezuela, where Chavez-bashing journalists abound, neutralitymeans telling the business-controlled propaganda apparatus what it wants to hear. Thus, in the spirit of neutrality,Leon made a startling announcement at the conference of February 2003. Although it had long been established that Chavez enjoyed his highest levels of support among the poor, Leon declared that Datanalisis' latest polldisproved the myththat public opinion was divided along class lines. According to Leon, people of lower incomeshad become even more inclined to reject Chavez than the rest of Venezuelan society. For anyone even slightly in tune with reality, Leon's claim should have sent off alarm bells. Hardly more than two months before, Gil Yepes himself told the Associated Press that_while only 30 percent of the overall Venezuelan population supported the government_45 percent of the poor still approved of Chavez. Setting aside the question of whether or not Gil Yepes' figures were based on methodologically sound polling (that issue will be taken up in the second part of this series), the figures suggested that the poor were more than twice as inclined to support Chavez as the rest of society, a finding that was consistent with past polls and election returns. Given that Venezuela's poorest stratum (stratum E) accounts for just over 40 percent of the adult population, the only way Gil Yepes could arrive at an overall 30 percent approval rating amid 45 percent support for Chavez among the poor is if the President's approval rating among the non-poor was close to 20 percent. Did Leon actually expect people to believe that_in the course of two months_the poor had gone from being more than twice as likely to support Chavez to rejecting him at a higher rate than the middle and wealthier strata? Puzzled by Leon's claim, I decided to ask Jose Miguel Sandoval_an expert on Latin American opinion polls at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill_how the political views among Venezuela's poor could undergo such a dramatic shift. Sandoval replied that reports of drastic changes of
the politics of public space
Tehran's book fair: the politics of public space By Kaveh Ehsani The Daily Star Saturday, August 07, 2004 For 10 days in May the 17th Tehran International Book and Media Fair was held in two dozen hangar-like buildings at the capital's vast and pleasant International Fair Ground. Since 1998, after the reformist Mohammad Khatami was elected president, the annual fair has become Iran's largest public event, regularly attracting more than 2 million visitors a year, nearly as many as make the Hajj pilgrimage. This year some 2200 domestic and 1200 international publishers from 39 countries displayed 250 thousand titles. Full at: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10categ_id=21article_id=7029 _ MSN 8 helps eliminate e-mail viruses. Get 2 months FREE*. http://join.msn.com/?page=features/virus
Venezuela rightists falter
NY Times, August 8, 2004 Venezuela's Opposition Loses Momentum By JUAN FORERO CARACAS, Venezuela, Aug. 6 - Pompeyo Márquez, with his shaggy mustache, tuft of white hair and craggy voice, is the new face of Venezuela's opposition movement, and therein may lie the problem. After the opposition's failed coup attempt against President Hugo Chávez and its four economically devastating strikes, the old dinosaurs of the two political parties that plundered the country for decades and are now in opposition have lost their influence. The idea now is to have someone with a steady hand and voice - as well as impeccable credentials - reaching Venezuelans as the opposition tries to gain momentum to oust Mr. Chávez, a fiery leftist who has turned Venezuelan political tradition upside down with his policies, in a recall referendum on Aug. 15. So Mr. Márquez, a former Communist guerrilla and political prisoner, is more often than not the opposition's man on the stump these days. People ask, 'After Chávez, then what?' and I say, 'After Chávez we will have the rule of law, respect for institutions and unity,' Mr. Márquez, microphone in hand, said to wild applause on a recent night before 300 people packed into a restaurant outside Caracas. We are the future. Chávez just talks about the federalist wars of the past. But even Mr. Márquez, who until recent months had rarely shared the dais with the country's top opposition leaders, admits his time has passed. He is 82 years old. He took part in his first strike in 1936. His standard speech includes references to his experiences in the post-Stalinist Soviet Union. He may be respected for his honesty and tenacity. But political analysts say that having him serve as one of a handful of spokesmen for the coalition of disparate parties, unions and business executives opposed to Mr. Chávez is another sign of a fractured, stumbling movement that has lacked adroit leadership and a coherent message. In Mr. Chávez, the opposition faces a messianic figure who is a formidable campaigner, drips charisma and now benefits from sky-high oil prices that are giving his government billions of dollars for popular social programs that solidify his base of support. But of Mr. Márquez, Riordan Roett, director of Latin American studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said: Give me a break - there's no charisma there. In the 40's and 50's, an 82-year-old figure might have been O.K. But Chávez is not 82. He's doing well, he's bouncy. He's got high oil prices. They need someone to go up against him. Indeed, with their last-gasp chance to unseat Mr. Chávez just a week away, the opposition appears to be unable to gain traction. I don't feel that the opposition has connected with the hopes of the people, said Jorge Botti, a businessman and opposition leader. They may believe there is something better than Chávez, but they have not seen an option. In recent weeks, some polls have indicated that Mr. Chávez will squeak out a victory in the recall. A victory would probably smash opponents who, before they came up with this campaign, had also tried all manner of illegal means to get rid of him. The polls - by the opposition and by the government - are often too close to call. Undecided voters, the so-called ni-nis, or neither-nors, who have no affinity for either side, are the wild cards both sides want to capture. But what is clear is that Mr. Chávez, who just a few months ago was behind in polls by wide margins, has shot up in popularity and is now within reach of winning. The situation for Chávez has no doubt improved, and remember, Chávez as a candidate, the worker of a campaign, is extraordinarily good, said Alfredo Torres, a pollster who works for an anti-Chávez political party. The opposition has been a disaster in terms of creating more voters against Chávez. full: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/08/international/americas/08venez.html -- Marxism list: www.marxmail.org
Re: Venezuela rightists falter
With respect to this article, again, the polls here are supposed to be close. The Venezuela site says that they opposition polls show Chavez winning. Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929
on Venezuelan polls, etc
Re: Loath by the rich: Why Hugo Chavez is heading for a stunning victory by Perelman, Michael 08 August 2004 03:03 UTC Thread Index Right wing polls show Chavez loosing. Isn't that correct, Michael L? With the possibility of fraud, can we really expect a victory? --- Michael, All recent polls show Chavez being successful in beating off yet another attack by the Right. (The most recent has the 'No' vote at 63%, and no polls will be published after today.) Keeping in mind, though, the fact that in a highly polarised situation, people (especially in Chavist barrios) may not be revealing their real intentions (and remembering Nicaragua), it's best to stress the importance of pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will. The latter is evidenced by the growing organisation of Chavists at the base (unevenly, to be sure) and the determination not to let this be stolen by fraud on 15A. A very strong statement from the April 13th movement that the workers of the informal sector will view a defeat at this point as fraud and a statement from the head of the steelworkers that there will be a general strike and a cutting off of oil shipments in the event of fraud point to likely developments if the 'Yes' vote comes out on top. And, now comrades, I will put on my red 'No' shirt and will join the demonstration that has begun to assemble (and which will probably continue to arrive for a few more hours) in the vicinity of my apartment. in solidarity, michael Michael A. Lebowitz Professor Emeritus Economics Department Simon Fraser University Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6 Currently based in Venezuela. Can be reached at Residencias Anauco Suites Departamento 601 Parque Central, Zona Postal 1010, Oficina 1 Caracas, Venezuela (58-212) 573-4111 fax: (58-212) 573-7724
In the News today
The Sacramento Bee juxtaposed to stories today, perhaps accidentally, regarding hoaxes. In one case, a young man who wanted to publicize his run for supervisor in San Francisco faked his own beheading. I understand that the authorities want to punish him as severely as possible. In the other story, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger conspired to put off the retreat from Saigon until after the 1972 election. Countless people died from the delay, yet Richard Nixon was rewarded with his reelection and Kissinger remains an unindicted or criminal and successful pundit. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
US Labor Against War leaflet for 8/29 NYC demo vs. war, Bush (text only)
Join Labor At the RNC to Tell Bush Kerry: U.S. Out of Iraq Bring the Troops Home Now! .End War Occupation in Palestine, Afghanistan, Everywhere! .Stop Bush's War on Workers - At Home Abroad! .Fund Jobs, Health Care Schools - Not War! .Fight Racism - Defend Immigrant, Civil Labor Rights! Sun., Aug. 29, '04, 10 a.m. Midtown Manhattan -- Specific location to be announced Union Labor Donated -- 8.5.04
Re: [Marxism] Jonathan Schell on the DP's prowar stance
Moveon began in protest of the Clinton impeachment. It began as a letter that took a life of its own. Michael, I'd like to know more about this. I've been asked to perform at a benefit for MoveOn and need to decide. (I don't want to help fund a Kerry front.) Dan Scanlan
monetarism paranoia
So the Jobs Report Is Dismal. The Fed Has No Place to Go but Up. By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER New York Times August 8, 2004 That will Fed policy makers do this week in the face of surprisingly weak job growth in the last two months? Raise interest rates, of course. Despite the awkward timing of the Fed meeting, so soon after Friday's report that only 32,000 new jobs were created in July, the Fed has little maneuvering room. The Fed is going to raise rates, said Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. He said that one reason Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, would go ahead was that he has got to raise rates so he can cut them again if there is a terrorist attack. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Re: [Marxism] Jonathan Schell on the DP's prowar stance
A Berkeley couple just sent out an email during the impeachment, appealing for politics to moveon to more important stuff. The letter took on a life of its own eventually began an to become an organization. Soros gave them some money. On Sun, Aug 08, 2004 at 11:32:37AM -0700, Dan Scanlan wrote: Moveon began in protest of the Clinton impeachment. It began as a letter that took a life of its own. Michael, I'd like to know more about this. I've been asked to perform at a benefit for MoveOn and need to decide. (I don't want to help fund a Kerry front.) Dan Scanlan -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu
Re: [Marxism] Jonathan Schell on the DP's prowar stance
On Sun, 8 Aug 2004, Dan Scanlan wrote: Moveon began in protest of the Clinton impeachment. It began as a letter that took a life of its own. I'd like to know more about this. I've been asked to perform at a benefit for MoveOn and need to decide. There's an extensive profile of the MoveOn and their history in the current LA Weekly: http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/37/features-bernhard.php Michael
never mind
Title: never mind Moveon began in protest of the Clinton impeachment. It began as a letter that took a life of its own. Never mind, Michael, about more on this. I found what seems to be the whole story at http://www.disinfopedia.org/wiki.phtml?title=MoveOn/History. Dan
Re: [Marxism] Jonathan Schell on the DP's prowar stance
On Sun, 8 Aug 2004, Dan Scanlan wrote: Moveon began in protest of the Clinton impeachment. It began as a letter that took a life of its own. I'd like to know more about this. I've been asked to perform at a benefit for MoveOn and need to decide. There's an extensive profile of the MoveOn and their history in the current LA Weekly: http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/37/features-bernhard.php Michael Thanks, this is a helluva story. I only wish MoveOn wasn't giving Kerry such an undeserved pass. What they are trying to do Nader has been doing for the past 40 years. They're in front of the wrong parade. Dan
Greens For Nader Update: Rigged Convention Divides Green Party (Sign and Forward This)
Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 03:04:28 -0400 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Greens For Nader Update: Rigged Convention Divides Green Party Greens For Nader Update: Rigged Convention Divides Green Party 2004.08.08 00:04:27 http://greensfornader.net/archives/2004/08/rigged_conventi_1.html Please forward and act immediately::: The nomination of David Cobb as the Green Party presidential candidate in Milwaukee was due to a well organized campaign to turn a minority view in the Green Party into what appeared as a majority decision at the convention. To correct this injustice, the Coordinating Committee of the Green Party of California will vote on Monday August 9 on whether to hold a Special General Assembly to let California Greens decide if they want to put Nader/Camejo on the our ballot line. If you believe that the Green Party should continue to challenge the two-party duopoly and should not compromise it principles, then please sign the following proposal and email it to one (or all) of the CC members listed below. Time is of the essence! Peggy Lewis [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sharon Peterson [EMAIL PROTECTED] Gerry Gras [EMAIL PROTECTED] Michael Borenstein [EMAIL PROTECTED] Jo Chamberlain [EMAIL PROTECTED] Matt Leslie [EMAIL PROTECTED] Alex Brideau III [EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSAL TO HOLD A SPECIAL GENERAL ASSEMBLY TO PUT NADER/CAMEJO ON THE GREEN PARTY BALLOT IN CALIFORNIA Whereas: 1. A grossly undemocratic process was used at the national convention of the US Green Party, as described in the article, Rigged Convention Divides Green Party, by Carol Miller and Forrest Hill (see www.greensfornader.net); 2 Each state Green Party should have the right to nominate candidates supported by a majority of its members because the results of the national Green Party Convention do not represent the views of a majority of Greens in California, indeed, they represent the views of a small minority; 3. An overwhelming majority of Greens in the United States and California support the presidential ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Miguel Camejo; 4. The Democratic Party has devoted huge resources to harass canvassers, to keep Nader/Camejo off the ballot in California 5. Ralph Nader would hold fundraisers to support local candidates if nominated by the Green Party of California,. 6. Nader and Camejo are the only candidates supporting Green values that have a chance of getting in the national televised debates. 7. The Green Party of California is a recognized Party in California and has a ballot line; Therefore be it resolved that: We the undersign urge the Coordinating Committee of the Green Party of California to show leadership and hold a Special General Assembly too place Ralph Nader on the California state ballot for President of the United States and Peter Miguel Camejo on the California state ballot for Vice President of the United States. Signed -- Yoshie * Critical Montages: http://montages.blogspot.com/ * Greens for Nader: http://greensfornader.net/ * Bring Them Home Now! http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/ * Calendars of Events in Columbus: http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html, http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php, http://www.cpanews.org/ * Student International Forum: http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/ * Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osudivest.org/ * Al-Awda-Ohio: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio * Solidarity: http://www.solidarity-us.org/
Re: [Marxism] Jonathan Schell on the DP's prowar stance
An invitation to any public forum is important. I have had an opportunity to speak in Churches before . . . Detroit and Montgomery Alabama and did work with the old Theology in the Americas Movement . . . as well as public speaking and giving written reports to trade union members on a weekly and monthly basis. Ever public forum is important and generally in my presentations I stick to the issue. If the issue is war and peace . . . I stick to the issue as a bread and butter issue as well as the general inhumanity of human towards men and women. I interject class . . . not as an ideological question but similar to Michael Moore's 9/11 . . . when be approaches the issue from the standpoint of the poor and those on the bottom of the ladder. Lots of people do not have medical care or access to good schooling and many more do not believe schooling can help them. Most of us are abolitionists on the side of the poor and those on the bottom of the totem pole. It is not that we cannot afford national health care. Rather . . . we can nolonger afford not to have it because it employs doctors and a profession and strengthens the health care system as employment and meeting human needs. Yes, . . . we need to employ more dentist because the people have bad teeth and one way or another the money always end up back into the coffers of government. Crest tooth paste is no substitute for the dentist. For me . . . Kerry would not be the cardinal issue . . . but rather taking a message of inspiration to those deeply interested in the plight of the lowest section of society we call the proletariat. Who ever the most power and arrogant rulers in society come for today . . . is an indication they will come for ustomorrow and the people will understand that. Class inequality in America is not a fat theory or this "big head thing" for intellectuals ... like us to broad about . . . or coattail chat for those of us who can thread water and stay in front of the economic curve. Bush has made it clear that class inequality is about the elite and their bourgeois prejudices and attitude that says if I cannot have things my way . . . I will drive the country into war and poverty for millions. You already know what to say and the protection of the 50 million on the bottom protects everyone above them. We are all on a ladder in society and when the bottom rung is broken the next level becomes bottom. Peace. Melvin P.
California, Take Back the Green Party!
California, Take Back the Green Party! There's a little rebellion starting, [Peter] Camejo said this week. Camejo said in California, the bastion of Green registration, it's a fact: The majority of the party wants to put Nader/Camejo on the ballot. (Carla Marinucci, Nader's Ballot Hopes Hinge on State's Greens, San Francisco Chronicle, August 7, 2004). . . . The full text is available at http://montages.blogspot.com/2004/08/california-take-back-green-party.html. -- Yoshie * Critical Montages: http://montages.blogspot.com/ * Greens for Nader: http://greensfornader.net/ * Bring Them Home Now! http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/ * Calendars of Events in Columbus: http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/calendar.html, http://www.freepress.org/calendar.php, http://www.cpanews.org/ * Student International Forum: http://sif.org.ohio-state.edu/ * Committee for Justice in Palestine: http://www.osudivest.org/ * Al-Awda-Ohio: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Al-Awda-Ohio * Solidarity: http://www.solidarity-us.org/
Re: In the News today
August 8, 2004 CBS-TV ran a report on the unreliability of online news and information last night. The fledgling SF politician below was cited. My wife and I went to see Maria Full of Grace today. It is a wonderful film that humanizes the lives of some Colombian women trapped by the global economy. Seth Sandronsky In the News today by Michael Perelman The Sacramento Bee juxtaposed to stories today, perhaps accidentally, regarding hoaxes. In one case, a young man who wanted to publicize his run for supervisor in San Francisco faked his own beheading. I understand that the authorities want to punish him as severely as possible. In the other story, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger conspired to put off the retreat from Saigon until after the 1972 election. Countless people died from the delay, yet Richard Nixon was rewarded with his reelection and Kissinger remains an unindicted or criminal and successful pundit. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu _ Dont just search. Find. Check out the new MSN Search! http://search.msn.click-url.com/go/onm00200636ave/direct/01/
