Re: [silk] silklist archives

2020-04-22 Thread Udhay Shankar N
On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 8:58 PM Dave Long wrote: (sorry if I'm behind; I'm on digest. do we have archives anywhere now?) > Try https://www.mail-archive.com/silklist@lists.hserus.net/ (appears to have an expired certificate, hope they fix it soon) Udhay -- ((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Tim Bray
It might have been a cruel-but-rational strategy if you were prepared to accept the increased mortality among vulnerable demographics. (I wouldn't be.) (But I'm in a vulnerable demographic…) But anyhow in recent days I've started seeing reports of permanent effects among "recovered" victims:

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Dave Long
> This also presumes that teh authorities can affect this outcome one way or > another. It's pretty clear that lockdowns have worked much better than we had any reason to hope they would have. (our lockdown is working, and we still have 70-75% of our workforce active). So the question is,

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Dave Long
> There's some evidence for the former due to a few random population > sampling exercise The random population sampling exercises I've seen say that *MAYBE* there are a small fraction of people who have had it: say 3% of the population. (plus minus, but call it more than 1% and less than

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Srijith Nair
Got to say I am trying to understand the herd immunity concept as well and falling short with COVID-19. With a basic reproductive rate of around 3, it has been calculated that about 70% of population need to be infected. With a fatality rate of 0.5-1%, about 0.35-0.7 percent of a country's

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Alaric Snell-Pym
On 22/04/2020 12:11, Amit Varma wrote: > On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 4:28 PM Udhay Shankar N wrote: > >> >> I assume you mean that it is not a good thing to actively work towards. >> This also presumes that teh authorities can affect this outcome one way or >> another. >> > > Well, the idea is to

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Nishant Shah
In The Netherlands, they have stuck to their guns about 'herd immunity' but have also talked about managing it rather than just letting the virus run its course. There was a lot of scepticism at first, but it looks like it is working - though it is a model that perhaps only works for a country

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Amit Varma
On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 4:28 PM Udhay Shankar N wrote: > > I assume you mean that it is not a good thing to actively work towards. > This also presumes that teh authorities can affect this outcome one way or > another. > Well, the idea is to delay and mitigate till a vaccine is ready, while

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Amit Varma
On Wed, Apr 22, 2020 at 4:11 PM Peter Griffin wrote: > I keep hearing about a 'herd immunity strategy.' > Isn't that, like, no strategy? Serious question. I mean, just let people > get infected and let the chips fall where they may? What am I not smart > enough to understand? > Herd immunity

Re: [silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Vijay Anand
The logic is that you isolate the vulnerable - those who are older and have pre-existing conditions and then let the rest of the folks mingle. The infection will spread by by enlarge won't cause any serious problems and once the 2-4 weeks is over, and the immunity is built and they are no longer

[silk] 'herd immunity strategy'

2020-04-22 Thread Peter Griffin
I keep hearing about a 'herd immunity strategy.' Isn't that, like, no strategy? Serious question. I mean, just let people get infected and let the chips fall where they may? What am I not smart enough to understand?