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[Biofuel] Diminishing Returns, Energy Return on Energy Invested, and Collapse
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/12/06/diminishing-returns-energy-return-on-energy-invested-and-collapse/ [referenced figures and links are available from the source] Diminishing Returns, Energy Return on Energy Invested, and Collapse Posted on December 6, 2013 by Gail Tverberg What do diminishing returns, energy return on energy invested (EROI or EROEI), and collapse have to do with each other? Let me start by explaining the connection between Diminishing Returns and Collapse. Diminishing Returns and Collapse We know that historically, many economies that have collapsed were ones that have hit “diminishing returns” with respect to human labor–that is, new workers added less production than existing workers were producing (on average). For example, in an agricultural economy, available land might already have as many farmers as the land can optimally use. Adding more farmers might add a little more production–perhaps the new workers would keep weeds down a bit better. But the amount of additional food the new workers would produce would be less than what earlier workers were producing, on average. If new workers were paid on the basis of their additional food production, they would find that their wages dropped relative to those of the original farmers. Lack of good paying jobs for everyone leads to a need for workarounds of various kinds. For example, swamp land might be drained to add more farmland, or irrigation ditches might be added to increase the amount produced per acre. Or the government might hire a larger army might to conquer more territory. Joseph Tainter (1990) talks about this need for workarounds as a need for greater “complexity.” In many cases, greater complexity translates to a need for more government services to handle the problems at hand. Turchin and Nefedof (2009) in Secular Cycles took Tainter’s analysis a step further, analyzing financial data relating to historical collapses of eight agricultural societies in operation between the years 30 B.C. E. and 1922 C. E.. Figure 1 shows my summary of the pattern they describe. Figure 1. Shape of typical Secular Cycle, based on work of Peter Turkin and Sergey Nefedov. Typically, a civilization developed a new resource which increased food availability, such as clearing a large plot of land of trees so that crops could be planted, or irrigating an existing plot of land. The economy tended to expand for well over 100 years, as the population grew in size to match the potential output of the new resource. Wages were relatively high. Eventually, the civilization hit a period of stagflation, typically lasting 50 or 60 years, as the population hit the carrying capacity of the land, and as additional workers did not add proportionately more output. When this happened, the wages of common workers tended to stagnate or decrease, resulting in increased wage disparity. The price of food tended to spike. To counter these problems, the amount of government services rose, as did the amount of debt. Ultimately, what brought the civilizations down was the inability of governments to collect enough taxes for expanded government services from the increasingly impoverished citizens. Other factors played a role as well–more resource wars, leading to more deaths; impoverished common workers not being able to afford an adequate diet, so plagues were more able to spread; overthrown or collapsing governments; and debt defaults. Populations tended to die off. Such collapses took place over a long period, typically 20 to 50 years. For those who are familiar with economic theory, the shape of the curve in Figure 1 is very similar to the production function mentioned in Two Views of our Current Economic and Energy Crisis. In fact, the three main phases are the same as well. The issue in both cases is diminishing returns ultimately leading to collapse. There seems to be a parallel to the current world situation. The energy resource that we learned to develop this time is fossil fuels, starting with coal about 1800. World population was able to expand greatly because of additional food production permitted by fossil fuels and because of improvements in hygiene. A period of stagflation began in the 1970s, when we first encountered problems with US oil production and spiking oil prices. Now, the question is whether we are approaching the Crisis Stage as described by Turchin and Nefedov. Why Might an Economy Collapse? Let’s think about how an economy operates. It is built up from many parts, over time. It includes one or more governments, together with the laws and regulations they pass and together with their financial systems. It includes businesses and consumers. It includes built infrastructure, such as roads and electricity transmission lines. It even includes traditions and customs, such as whether savings are held in gold jewelry or in banks, and whether farms are inherited by the oldest son. As each new business is formed, the owners make
[Biofuel] NZ on track to miss targets by huge margin
NZ on track to miss targets by huge margin, 28 Oct, 2013 http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/10/28/policy-politics/nz-track-miss-targets-huge-margin Climate Policy Politics Reuters Point Carbon New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise nearly 50 per cent by 2040, according to new government modelling, taking the country well off course to meet its commitment to cut emissions in half by mid-century.* A report from the ministry of environment showed the country’s net emissions are expected to grow to nearly 90 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2040 from current levels of around 60 million, while the government target is to bring emissions down to 30 million tonnes by 2050. “The trend in net emissions is dominated by our projections of emissions and removals from forestry,” the report said. A large number of CO2-absorbing trees planted in the country in the 1990s are set to be harvested at the end of this decade, meaning overall emissions are likely to rise throughout the 2020s, it added. Asked by the Green Party in parliament about the projections on Wednesday, Simon Bridges, associate minister for climate change, said emissions were projected to rise because of current low carbon prices in the country’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Critics have said New Zealand’s carbon market is too weak to incentivise forest-planting, with carbon prices so low that foresters make more profit chopping down trees to sell the timber. “We know that as we make progress in international (climate change) negotiations, that carbon price will surely rise,” Bridges said. “The emissions trading scheme is a long-term tool, and it is not hard to imagine that with a good outcome on a new global agreement and leadership from the major economies, we will need to adjust our own domestic policy response, as well.” Domestic emissions permits in the New Zealand ETS currently trade at NZ$3.75 ($3.15), but companies are also allowed to comply by buying U.N.-backed carbon credits, which are available for only 30 cents each. The New Zealand government last year removed legislation that would have forced big companies to pay for a bigger share of their emissions and restrict access to international credits - both moves that would have driven up carbon prices. It also put on hold indefinitely including in the scheme emissions from agriculture, which accounts for nearly 50 per cent of New Zealand’s emissions. “It is policy incoherence of this breath-taking dimension that wins us fossil awards at the U.N. conferences – with Warsaw beckoning next month,” said Greens MP Kennedy Graham on his blog on Wednesday. He was referring to the infamous prizes awarded by green groups at U.N. climate negotiations to the countries they deem to be failing to act to tackle climate change. The main annual meeting takes place next month in Poland, where countries will be tasked with making progress towards a 2015 global pact to bind all nations into curbing emissions from 2020. A spokesman for Climate Change Minister Tim Groser told Reuters on Thursday that the government had no plans to reform the nation’s carbon market. He said government will continue to fund research on greenhouse gases from food production. “The Government is investing $45 million into the Global Research Alliance on Greenhouse Gases, bringing together 40 countries to find ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions,” he added ___ Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
[Biofuel] Buyers unmoved by Sandy's reclaimed wood
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20130823/SMALLBIZ/130829952 Buyers unmoved by Sandy's reclaimed wood Busted boardwalks and homes delivered tropical hardwoods and popular pine to the reclamation market. But buyers are picky, and demolition crews know one person's trash is another's gold. BY JONATHAN BLUM AUGUST 23, 2013 6:39 A.M. Superstorm Sandy's swath of destruction shredded houses and boardwalks, depositing a thicket of old timber onto the city's wood recycling market. But making money from the newly available ancient timbers has proven to be a grind. We worked with the Parks Department initially on the boardwalk wood, said Alan Solomon, partner at Sawkill Lumber, the Brooklyn-based reclaimed lumber firm. We were able to save quite a bit of the tropical hardwood there. But most of it was trashed. Overall, the market has been slow. Firms that reclaim hardwood from city buildings and what could be saved from Sandy are adapting to a market that has changed rapidly since recycling old beams and boards came into the fore a decade or so ago, when the wood was cheap to acquire and easy to sell to green-conscious designers. The wood salvaged from Sandy has yet to translate into big profits. There was a time, five or 10 years ago, when trucks would pull up and just ask to give us fabulous material, said Joseph Pepe, sales manager at M. Fine Lumber, the Brooklyn-based lumber recycling and manufacturing firm. The company would not disclose sales or revenues figures but said it's also handling recycled Sandy material. Now it's much more competitive, he said. Bidding wars for trashed boards The challenges salvage firms like M. Fine and Sawkill face begin with the basics of procuring the material—that is, finding suitable material in old buildings ready for demolition. Inventory in has been stubbornly lean since the financial crash. There have been fewer transactions and construction projects, and when buildings are dismantled, property owners and demolition contractors are well-aware that their trash is another's gold. We are bidding for every job against many other companies—that never used to happen, said Larry Stopper, partner in Bigwood, the Naples, N.Y.-based recycling firm that generates about a $1 million per year in sales of reclaimed wood from deals done throughout Northeast, including pulling material from the Brooklyn waterfront. And if you blow your estimates, you are up the creek. You can very easily do a very large job for nothing. Architects, interior designers and furniture makers have also become increasingly selective about the species and quality of the material they are willing to invest in, with each tree serving a niche. Mr. Solomon said reclaimed yellow pine, the once predominant log in the eastern U.S., sells for $5 per board foot. Oak and chestnut run $7. Tropical hardwoods—found in the destroyed Rockaways boardwalk—sell for $10 to $20. European hardwoods imported for the city's original buildings sit atop the market. I have seen those go for $50 a foot, said Mr. Solomon. Reclaimed hard wood is generally at least twice as expensive as boards milled from timber forests. Companies buy the wood from demolition contractor, then they must remove nails and other fasteners, mill, cut to length, dry, and transport the finished wood to their customers. All of which makes reclaimed lumber owners and managers choosy about which woods they invest in. Bigwood's Mr. Stopper said the tropical hardwoods like those found in the city's old boardwalks must compete with huge demand for oak. Wood from Sandy also suffered damage from the sea. Some flood waters contained fuel and other toxins. It used to be we would try to turn everybody who came to us into a sale, said Klaas Armster, partner in Sawkill Lumber. Eventually everything sells, but now I have to be much more creative about which jobs we take. In fact, the pricing pressure for reclaimed lumber has become so intense that some local wood recyclers are giving up on sourcing material from the New York metropolitan area. The prices New York-sourced wood is asking are astronomical, said Vincent Kaufmann, operations manager at LV Wood, a Manhattan-based reclaimed wood retailer, whose eight employees handle 75,000 feet to 100,000 feet of wood products monthly. I can get the exact same beams at a much more reasonable price from dealers down south, he said. And the supply is much more consistent. Selling the story in the beams. Eco-conscious customers value the story behind a boards: where it's from, how old it is, and what the material was used for in its original life. Bigwood handled the wood coming out of one of the first condom factories in the U.S. I don't know why, said Mr. Stopper, But it didn't matter what else I was selling, everybody wanted a piece of the condom factory. As compelling as Sandy's hurricane in one's house story might appear, its tale has yet to translate into major sales. When I consider the prospect for a
[Biofuel] A New Deal for Appalachia’s Forests: Growing Biofuels?
http://www.yesmagazine.org/new-economy/could-biofuels-mean-a-new-deal-for-appalachia-s-forests A New Deal for Appalachia’s Forests: Growing Biofuels? The mine-ravaged communities of Eastern Kentucky have been increasingly abandoned by the coal economy. Could growing biofuels jumpstart a new local jobs market—and renew the land in the process? by Mark Andrew Boyer posted May 31, 2013 Using valuable food crops like corn and sugar cane to produce biofuels has been a highly controversial topic in the age of imminent food crises. But nobody is growing corn on the former strip mines of Eastern Kentucky. A look at the region on Google Earth shows a patchwork of bald spots in the forested hills. Surface mining left its mark on the Appalachian landscape through much of the 20th century, as large swaths of native forests were replaced with sparse, scrubby grassland. But University of Kentucky forestry professor Chris Barton sees in the compacted soil of old strip mines the possibility of using former surface mine land for short-rotation forestry—in order to produce fuel. Here's how it would work: Fast-growing, native trees like black locust could be grown and harvested every five to 10 years; then, the woodchips would be burned in an oxygen-restricted condition to produce combustible gases that in turn could be used to generate energy and heat. After a few generations of short-rotation harvests, the land could be transitioned to a long-term forest. Barton is the founder of Green Forests Work, a nonprofit spin-off of the Appalachian Regional Reforestation Initiative that seeks to reforest lands scarred by mining with native trees—all the while helping to rebuild struggling local economies. These are what strip-mined hills look like. Photo courtesy of Gabe B. A Conservation Corps for the 21st Century When President Obama delivered his 2009 inauguration speech, he talked about creating green jobs. A light bulb turned on for Barton. Realizing that his reforestation initiative was a shovel-ready project that could create jobs right away, Barton began thinking about approaching the federal government for financial support. Instead of depending on a single, monolithic employer to create jobs, Hall would like to see people taking job creation into their own hands. Surface mining strips away nutrient-rich topsoil and leaves a devastated landscape that is prone to landslides and water contamination. With the passage of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, mining companies were required to stabilize the land when they were finished mining in order to control erosion. But instead of merely stabilizing, mining companies over-compacted more than 1 million acres of former surface mines using bulldozers. This made it difficult for anything other than grasses and other non-native vegetation to grow. This is an environment that had over 100 species of vegetation prior to the mining, explains Barton. And when you get out on the sites and look down, it's not like looking at your yard and seeing lush grass carpeting; you're going to see very sparse grass, and a lot of patchiness. Now, if Barton's plan works, he hopes to undo some of that damage. In 2009, inspired partly by President Obama's speech, Barton wrote up a proposal for putting an army of people to work by rehabilitating lands that had been ravaged by industrial machinery. For inspiration, he looked to the Civilian Conservation Corps, a New Deal program launched during the Great Depression to create jobs for the unemployed in conservation and natural resources development. Barton's proposal requested federal funding for workers to till the land, grow trees in nurseries, plant trees, and manage the land. But then, just days after Barton submitted his proposal, White House green jobs czar Van Jones resigned, and the prospect of securing funding for Green Forests Work (GFW) quickly dimmed. For now, Barton has decided to move forward with volunteer labor, using the next year and a half to try to educate the public and raise support for the program. Since GFW was launched in 2008, more than 5,000 volunteers have planted nearly 1 million trees on former surface mine sites. And last year, the program received a $300,000 grant, enabling Barton to add a couple full-time staff members. Life after coal: New economy, new mentality Coal jobs are increasingly hard to come by in Eastern Kentucky, as the rise of cheap natural gas and waning Chinese demand have led to thousands of layoffs in Appalachian coal towns. GFW's Reforestation Coordinator, Nathan Hall, is a ninth-generation Appalachian who was born and raised in the coalfields of Eastern Kentucky. Part of Hall's job involves finding local contractors who can loosen up soil that has been compacted by mining equipment so that native trees can grow on reclaimed surface mine land. By itself, short-rotation forestry might not have the ability to revive local economies across Appalachian states, but
[Biofuel] Group Kicks off Planting of Ancient Tree Clones
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20130422/us-replanting-redwoods/?utm_hp_ref=politicsir=politics By JOHN FLESHER AP Environmental Writer COPEMISH, Mich. April 22, 2013 (AP) A team led by a nurseryman from northern Michigan and his sons has raced against time for two decades, snipping branches from some of the world's biggest and most durable trees with plans to produce clones that could restore ancient forests and help fight climate change. Now comes the most ambitious phase of the quest: getting the new trees into the ground. Ceremonial plantings of two dozen clones from California's mighty coastal redwoods were taking place Monday in seven nations: Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, Ireland, Canada, Germany and the U.S. Although measuring just 18-inches tall, the laboratory-produced trees are genetic duplicates of three giants that were cut down in northern California more than a century ago. Remarkably, shoots still emerge from the stumps, including one known as the Fieldbrook Stump near McKinleyville, which measures 35 feet in diameter. It's believed to be about 4,000 years old. The tree was about 40 stories high before it was felled. This is a first step toward mass production, said David Milarch, co-founder of Archangel Ancient Tree Archive, a nonprofit group spearheading the project. We need to reforest the planet; it's imperative. To do that, it just makes sense to use the largest, oldest, most iconic trees that ever lived. Milarch and his sons Jared and Jake, who have a family-owned nursery in the village of Copemish, Mich., became concerned about the condition of the world's forests in the 1990s. They began crisscrossing the U.S. in search of champion trees that have lived hundreds or even thousands of years, convinced that superior genes enabled them to outlast others of their species. Scientific opinion varies on whether that's true, with skeptics saying the survivors may simply have been lucky. The Archangel leaders say they're out to prove the doubters wrong. They've developed several methods of producing genetic copies from cuttings, including placing branch tips less than an inch long in baby food jars containing nutrients and hormones. The specimens are cultivated in labs until large enough to be planted. In recent years, they have focused on towering sequoias and redwoods, considering them best suited to absorb massive volumes of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas primarily responsible for climate change. If we get enough of these trees out there, we'll make a difference, said Jared Milarch, the group's executive director. Archangel has an inventory of several thousand clones in various stages of growth that were taken from more than 70 redwoods and giant sequoias. NASA engineer Steve Craft, who helped arrange for David Milarch to address an agency gathering, said research shows that those species hold much more carbon than other varieties. The challenge is to find places to put the trees, people to nurture them and money to continue the project, Jared Milarch said. The group is funded through donations and doesn't charge for its clones. A lot of trees will be planted by a lot of groups on Arbor Day, but 90 percent of them will die, David Milarch said. It's a feel-good thing. You can't plant trees and walk away and expect them to take care of themselves. The recipients of Archangel redwoods have pledged to care for them properly, he said. The first planting of about 250 took place in December on a ranch near Port Orford, Ore. Others were being planted during Earth Day observances Monday at the College of Marin in Kentwood, Calif., and in parks and private estates in the other six countries. I know the trees will thrive here, said Tom Burke, landscape manager at the College of Marin. We've had redwoods in this area since God planted them. ——— Online: http://www.ancienttreearchive.org ___ Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
[Biofuel] Why Trees Matter
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/opinion/why-trees-matter.html?_r=0 Why Trees Matter By JIM ROBBINS Published: April 11, 2012 Helena, Mont. TREES are on the front lines of our changing climate. And when the oldest trees in the world suddenly start dying, it’s time to pay attention. North America’s ancient alpine bristlecone forests are falling victim to a voracious beetle and an Asian fungus. In Texas, a prolonged drought killed more than five million urban shade trees last year and an additional half-billion trees in parks and forests. In the Amazon, two severe droughts have killed billions more. The common factor has been hotter, drier weather. We have underestimated the importance of trees. They are not merely pleasant sources of shade but a potentially major answer to some of our most pressing environmental problems. We take them for granted, but they are a near miracle. In a bit of natural alchemy called photosynthesis, for example, trees turn one of the seemingly most insubstantial things of all — sunlight — into food for insects, wildlife and people, and use it to create shade, beauty and wood for fuel, furniture and homes. For all of that, the unbroken forest that once covered much of the continent is now shot through with holes. Humans have cut down the biggest and best trees and left the runts behind. What does that mean for the genetic fitness of our forests? No one knows for sure, for trees and forests are poorly understood on almost all levels. “It’s embarrassing how little we know,” one eminent redwood researcher told me. What we do know, however, suggests that what trees do is essential though often not obvious. Decades ago, Katsuhiko Matsunaga, a marine chemist at Hokkaido University in Japan, discovered that when tree leaves decompose, they leach acids into the ocean that help fertilize plankton. When plankton thrive, so does the rest of the food chain. In a campaign called Forests Are Lovers of the Sea, fishermen have replanted forests along coasts and rivers to bring back fish and oyster stocks. And they have returned. Trees are nature’s water filters, capable of cleaning up the most toxic wastes, including explosives, solvents and organic wastes, largely through a dense community of microbes around the tree’s roots that clean water in exchange for nutrients, a process known as phytoremediation. Tree leaves also filter air pollution. A 2008 study by researchers at Columbia University found that more trees in urban neighborhoods correlate with a lower incidence of asthma. In Japan, researchers have long studied what they call “forest bathing.” A walk in the woods, they say, reduces the level of stress chemicals in the body and increases natural killer cells in the immune system, which fight tumors and viruses. Studies in inner cities show that anxiety, depression and even crime are lower in a landscaped environment. Trees also release vast clouds of beneficial chemicals. On a large scale, some of these aerosols appear to help regulate the climate; others are anti-bacterial, anti-fungal and anti-viral. We need to learn much more about the role these chemicals play in nature. One of these substances, taxane, from the Pacific yew tree, has become a powerful treatment for breast and other cancers. Aspirin’s active ingredient comes from willows. Trees are greatly underutilized as an eco-technology. “Working trees” could absorb some of the excess phosphorus and nitrogen that run off farm fields and help heal the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. In Africa, millions of acres of parched land have been reclaimed through strategic tree growth. Trees are also the planet’s heat shield. They keep the concrete and asphalt of cities and suburbs 10 or more degrees cooler and protect our skin from the sun’s harsh UV rays. The Texas Department of Forestry has estimated that the die-off of shade trees will cost Texans hundreds of millions of dollars more for air-conditioning. Trees, of course, sequester carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that makes the planet warmer. A study by the Carnegie Institution for Science also found that water vapor from forests lowers ambient temperatures. A big question is, which trees should we be planting? Ten years ago, I met a shade tree farmer named David Milarch, a co-founder of the Champion Tree Project who has been cloning some of the world’s oldest and largest trees to protect their genetics, from California redwoods to the oaks of Ireland. “These are the supertrees, and they have stood the test of time,” he says. Science doesn’t know if these genes will be important on a warmer planet, but an old proverb seems apt. “When is the best time to plant a tree?” The answer: “Twenty years ago. The second-best time? Today.” Jim Robbins is the author of the forthcoming book “The Man Who Planted Trees.” This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Correction: April 21, 2012 An earlier version of this essay referred incorrectly to one of
[Biofuel] Climate-change summary and update
http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/ Climate-change summary and updatehttp://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/ Sun, Jan 6, 2013 Uncategorized http://guymcpherson.com/category/uncategorized/ American actress Lily Tomlin is credited with the expression, “No matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep up.” With respect to climate science, my own efforts to stay abreast are blown away every week by new data, models, and assessments. It seems no matter how dire the situation becomes, it only gets worse when I check the latest reports. The response of politicians, heads of non-governmental organizations, and corporate leaders remains the same. They’re mired in the dank Swamp of Nothingness. These are the people who know about, and presumably could do something about, our ongoing race to disaster (if only to sound the alarm). Tomlin’s line is never more germane than when thinking about their pursuit of a buck at the expense of life on Earth. This essay brings attention to recent projections and positive feedbacks. There is little new here beyond my recent presentations on the subject. Specifically, I presented most of this information at the Bluegrass Bioneers conferencehttp://guymcpherson.com/2012/11/speaking-in-louisville-and-a-couple-essays/ (Alex Smith at Radio Ecoshock evaluates my presentationherehttp://ecoshock.blogspot.com/2012/12/climate-on-road-to-extinction.html). More recently, I presented an updated versionhttp://guymcpherson.com/2012/11/livestreamed-tonight/ on the campus of the University of Massachusetts. All information and sources are readily confirmed with an online search, and links to information about feedbacks can be found herehttp://lackofenvironment.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/what-on-earth-are-we-doing/ . *Large-scale assessments* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (late 2007): 1 C by 2100 Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (late 2008): 2 C by 2100 United Nations Environment Programme (mid 2009): 3.5 C by 2100 Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (October 2009): 4 C by 2060 Global Carbon Project, Copenhagen Diagnosis (November 2009): 6 C, 7 C by 2100 International Energy Agency (November 2010): 3.5 C by 2035 2100 United Nations Environment Programme (December 2010): up to 5 C by 2050 These assessments fail to account for significant self-reinforcing feedback loops (i.e., positive feedbacks, the term that implies the opposite of its meaning). The IPCC’s vaunted Fifth Assessment will continue the trend as it, too, ignores important feedbackshttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/12/02/1253931/ipccs-planned-obsolescence-fifth-assessment-report-will-ignore-crucial-permafrost-carbon-feedback/. On a positive note, major assessments fail to account for economic collapse. However, due to the feedback loops presented below, I strongly suspect it’s too late for economic collapse to extend the run of our species. As pointed out by the United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases in 1990http://theartofannihilation.com/category/articles-2010/expose-the-2o-death-dance-the-1o-cover-up-part-i/, “Beyond 1 degree C may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.” Planetary instruments indicate Earth has warmed about 1 C since the beginning of the industrial revolution. However, plants in the vicinity of Concord, Massachusetts — where the instrumental record indicates warming of about 1 C — indicate warming of 2.4 C since the 1840shttp://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/mar/14/henry-david-thoreau-climate-change . Whether you believe the plants or the instruments is irrelevant at the point. We’ve clearly triggered the types of positive feedbacks the United Nations warned about in 1990. Yet my colleagues and acquaintances think we can and will work our way out of this horrific mess with permaculture (which is not to denigrate permaculture, the principles of which are implemented at the mud hut). Let’s ignore the models for a moment and consider only the results of a single briefing to the United Nations Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen (COP15)http://wrongkindofgreen.org/2012/12/10/the-most-important-cop-briefing-that-no-one-ever-heard-truth-lies-racism-omnicide/. Regulars in this space will recall COP15 as the climate-change meetings thrown under the bus by the Obama administration. A footnote on that long-forgotten briefing contains this statement: “THE LONG-TERM SEA LEVEL THAT CORRESPONDS TO CURRENT CO2 CONCENTRATION IS ABOUT 23 METERS ABOVE TODAY’S LEVELS, AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6 DEGREES C OR MORE HIGHER. THESE ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON REAL LONG TERM CLIMATE RECORDS, NOT ON MODELS.” In other words, Obama and others in his administration knew near-term extinction of humans was already guaranteed. Even before the dire feedbacks were reported by the scientific community, the Obama administration abandoned climate change as a
Re: [Biofuel] reIs the Deadly Crash of Our Civilization Inevitable?
It's probably going to get pretty crowded then down here in the south in New Zealand. I'm glad I had a chance to get in early on some real estate. I think we'll be in trouble long before then. There are some in humankind that still cling to the notion that starting wars will lead to peace and as the world's resources dwindle, there will be more and more reasons found for creating peace! Steve On Wednesday 14 February 2007 04:36 pm, John Wilson wrote: HI Peter, So we better have figured out what to do before then (about 4 billion years from now)! We don't have the full 4 billion years. The next major catastrophy happens in about ten thousand. Let us hope it is just a small ice age and not a major one. I am still trying to get rid of the bolders the last ice age left behind. All northern cities and infrastructure will be wiped away by tons of ice. In the mean time if the earth rotates on its axis we won't even know which cities will be in the north and affected. Yours truly John Wilson *** Wilsonia Farm Kennel Preserve Goldens Ph-Fax (902)665-2386) Web: http://www3.ns.sympatico.ca/goldens/new.htm Pups: http://www3.ns.sympatico.ca/goldens/pup.htm Politics: http://www3.ns.sympatico.ca/goldens/elect.htm In Nova Scotia smoking permitted in designated areas only until 9:00 PM . After 9:00 it is okey to kill everyone. Not anymore! Smoke freedom day 6 th December 2006 ^ Yours truly John Wilson *** Wilsonia Farm Kennel Preserve Goldens Ph-Fax (902)665-2386) Web: http://www3.ns.sympatico.ca/goldens/new.htm Pups: http://www3.ns.sympatico.ca/goldens/pup.htm In Nova Scotia smoking permitted in designated areas only until 9:00 PM . After 9:00 it is okey to kill everyone. Not anymore! Smoke freedom day 6 th December 2006 ^ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] A heat Engine for the house.
See WhisperGen http://www.whispergen.com/ A company from here in Christchurch, New Zealand is producing units using a Stirling engine. Their market is currently primarily the UK as a replacement for home or office central heating systems while also producing power to either consume or put back into the grid. For off grid, they offer a DC model in various sizes, including some suitable for use on boats. The majority shareholder is Meridian Energy, one of the largest electricty producers here. Here in NZ, they don't believe in heating houses, so it's not a big market and I'm never seen one in use or even for sale, though these are designed, developed and manufactured here. steve On Saturday 28 October 2006 01:18 pm, Zeke Yewdall wrote: This is known as Cogeneration, and in the energy consulting world is considered pretty hot. Usually it's trying to recuperate heat from small turbines, fuel cells, or even large turbines, but it generally pays back pretty well (because usually the other option is just throwing away all that heat, because they need the electricity anyway). I suspect that the problem was the gasoline is a pretty high priced form of BTU's. But they've made working systems using MW sized diesel generators in some alaskan villages, and they pay $3 or $4 per gallon for fuel (and $0.40/kWh for the resulting electricity) I don't actually know anyone who's done this on a scale smaller than a large commercial building or campus, but perhaps there's someone out there The thing is that if you just want to get heat, it's always more efficient to just run a boiler or furnace or such, and not waste energy in making movement. But if you can syphon off 20% of the energy into motion, which you then turn to high value energy such as electricity, it might be better. Also, you've got to match the electrical and thermal loads, which often don't match well, though they could in certain situations. Z On 10/27/06, JAMES PHELPS [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: When I lived in Colorado I looked into using a Gas engine With a generator to provide heating and electricity in the heavy winter months. The idea was to use all but the heat exchanged exhaust as heat source and the generated power for electricity. It was not cost effective at that time with fuel prices at $1.75 but I wonder now with biodiesel. Has anyone done anything like this or is this a looser anyway you look at it? Jim ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] Lawn question off topic
/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] New Biodiesel Catalyst
/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] New Biodiesel Catalyst
I hope it leads to some good results as well. The second article from the Iowa State shed much more light on it and I'm glad John found it and passed it on. I'm not trying to be negative. We need more Mr.Lins. I just wish that with his knowledge and training he could remain focused on research rather than having to split his time starting a company and campaigning for research dollars to continue his work. On the other hand having a reality check with new ideas to see if they produce economically viable results in the marketplace is important too. I wish Mr.Lin well but just think of the progress if we threw some real dollars at this area - like for example a fraction of the military and defense research spending. Steve On Monday 08 May 2006 10:55 am, JJJN wrote: Hello Steve, Yea it a bummer to see our think tanks beg, but the bottom line is if they start producing the catalyst for sale, chances are we can buy it, not so different than going to your local chemical supply and buying KOH eh? I think Mr Lin is trying to use his minute in the limelight to express what they have done and give the State a good kicking in the butt to start supporting what they at the university do (Academics vs Sports) and after the Hawkeyes Basketball season why not? I don't agree with -see below... Best Jim Steve Racz wrote: Here is the article online (using snipurl!) http://snipurl.com/q4st If the catalyst is reusable, but only 20 times, what happens then? Can the catalyst be recycled? The details are vague but it seems that this is intentional as it seems Mr. Lin and his colleagues and especially the University of Iowa are trying to cash in on their research, not share it. Sorry if I sound like a cynic, but the article sounds more like a free informercial touting the benefits of university and industry collaboration (read - how to raise $$$ for the University) with the work with renewable fuels being only the buzzword to bind it together. Not that I don't think that there shouldn't be collaboration, it's that this is blatantly using biodiesel research as a headliner and not much else. Not much else? Then Why is the Coop going to start Commercially testing the Catalyst? I'm actually saddened that with all the blah, blah about being addicted to oil, that begging is still required by universities for funding of research that seems so basic and that people like Mr.Lin are forced into the commercial world when clearly it's not ready for commercialization. Right the catalyst is not ready for commercialization but it is ready to test for that purpose. Please don't misunderstand me, I hope it becomes available but until the next 1000 yards of research and testing is complete I am not going to cancel any orders for KOH. It does state : Grants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Energy and the state's Iowa Values Fund have helped support the ISU researchers' work. but that doesn't stop them from saying this: If the work with West Central shows the catalysts will work on a commercial scale, Lin may form a company to produce the catalysts. But that, as well as continuing research on campus, will take significant funding, he and others said. If we could get support from the state and from these local companies, there is no reason why it would not stay here, Lin said. I see opportunity in Iowa. Steve On Sunday 07 May 2006 03:35 pm, JJJN wrote: My mother in law sent me an article by Anne Fitzgerald writing for the (Des Moines?) Register. The article states that Victor Lin and two fellow University of Iowa Chemists have created a new catalyst that is reusable (20 times) and can be filtered. The catalyst will be quite a bit more expensive than what we are using now but will pay out over time because of the reuse. West Central cooperative is going to test the catalyst on a commercial scale. Anne Fitzgerald can be reached at 515 284 8122 or at [EMAIL PROTECTED] This sounds very much like the glucose/carbon/sulfur carbon compound. BUT I do not know if it is or something new. Well lets hope this becomes available to us all very soon. My best Jim. ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED
Re: [Biofuel] New Biodiesel Catalyst
Here is the article online (using snipurl!) http://snipurl.com/q4st If the catalyst is reusable, but only 20 times, what happens then? Can the catalyst be recycled? The details are vague but it seems that this is intentional as it seems Mr. Lin and his colleagues and especially the University of Iowa are trying to cash in on their research, not share it. Sorry if I sound like a cynic, but the article sounds more like a free informercial touting the benefits of university and industry collaboration (read - how to raise $$$ for the University) with the work with renewable fuels being only the buzzword to bind it together. Not that I don't think that there shouldn't be collaboration, it's that this is blatantly using biodiesel research as a headliner and not much else. I'm actually saddened that with all the blah, blah about being addicted to oil, that begging is still required by universities for funding of research that seems so basic and that people like Mr.Lin are forced into the commercial world when clearly it's not ready for commercialization. It does state : Grants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Department of Energy and the state's Iowa Values Fund have helped support the ISU researchers' work. but that doesn't stop them from saying this: If the work with West Central shows the catalysts will work on a commercial scale, Lin may form a company to produce the catalysts. But that, as well as continuing research on campus, will take significant funding, he and others said. If we could get support from the state and from these local companies, there is no reason why it would not stay here, Lin said. I see opportunity in Iowa. Steve On Sunday 07 May 2006 03:35 pm, JJJN wrote: My mother in law sent me an article by Anne Fitzgerald writing for the (Des Moines?) Register. The article states that Victor Lin and two fellow University of Iowa Chemists have created a new catalyst that is reusable (20 times) and can be filtered. The catalyst will be quite a bit more expensive than what we are using now but will pay out over time because of the reuse. West Central cooperative is going to test the catalyst on a commercial scale. Anne Fitzgerald can be reached at 515 284 8122 or at [EMAIL PROTECTED] This sounds very much like the glucose/carbon/sulfur carbon compound. BUT I do not know if it is or something new. Well lets hope this becomes available to us all very soon. My best Jim. ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] Wet Composting
Composting can be achieved either aerobically or anaerobically. They are different processes, require different conditions and organisms and the organisms themselves have different requirements. To achieve a more complete decomposition in a shorter period of time, you can help the aerobic organisms by replenishing their oxygen supply and their moisture requirements. You do not need to add additional organic material 'to ensure a complete reaction' if you start with a proper mix in the first place.(Technically it's not a reaction anyway, more of a digestion). If you start an aerobic pile and let the organisms get to the point where they have consumed all of the oxygen and moisture and have produced heat as a byproduct, then you get into a more anaerobic decomposition. If you turn the pile, it becomes an aerobic decomposition again. What's my point? If you build a proper aerobic compost mix and just leave it, nature will take of it eventually- without a question. Why work hard to do what nature already does so well. Anaerobic composting is a bit more complex but can be aided with the addition of certain microbes. Anaerobic composting is what occurs in a garbage dump - with at least one byproduct being methane. I think in your scenario, the aerobic microbes would drown. Why the interest in just tea bags anyway, though? There is plenty of free material available for composting - leaves, grass, straw, vegetable scraps, sawdust, woodchips, hair - should be easy enough to collect enough 'browns' and 'greens' to make a good pile. For free sources, try your local grocer, barbershop, woodshop - heck I used to steal bags of leaves in the fall from the neighbors and the pumpkins and strawbales after Hallowe'en and I had a container left out in the office kitchen area to collect coffee grinds/teabags. No problem composting these. A local entrepreneur in the Dallas area had the local Dr.Pepper bottling plant pay to deliver the spoiled batches of syrup to his quarry which they otherwise would have had to treat before dumping and charged the timber industry to dump their sawdust in same. He turned the pile with bulldozers , then bagged and sold the finished compost. Money to bring it in, money to take it away. Garbage into gold using nature! Brilliant! And just so we don't stray off alternate fuels too far - the methane off garbage dumps can be recovered - this is nothing new - my local community here in New Zealand is tapping a closed dump and piping the methane 2 kms to a nearby community center to heat the pool. If you include an aerobic compost pile in say a greenhouse, it can provide an alternate source of heat while being close for disposal of all your gardening 'waste'. Haven't found a way to have it power my Toyota Surf turbo diesel yet though. -- Steve Racz [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Tuesday 07 March 2006 03:47 pm, Rexis Tree wrote: Composting required aerobic condition and well balanced C-N ratio to carry out. And require active turning the compost pile to mix in oxygen and fresh organic material to ensure a complete reaction. If compost too wet and soak in water will turn the pile into anaerobic compost which result in none complete and smelly compost. But how about this one? If i soak a lot of organic material in water, bubble air thru the water, and perhaps keep it warm at 35 C. Will it create any compost in the end? In theory the bacterial should get enough oxygen to undergo aerobic reaction. And what is tea bag's CN ratio? I plan to collect lots of tea grounds to do compost, perhaps i will get it from restaurants or coffee shops. ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] Birth of an Industry
Hi Kenji, I've read some of the report you quoted. I guess it must be kept in mind that this is a submission from a private enterprise to the government on recommendations for expanding the industry in Canada, both from a producer perspective and from a consumer perspective. It is certainly not legislation. A further point is that they recommended registration and certification for biofuel/producers that enters the fuel distribution system. This would take home-brew systems pretty much off the radar screen from this kind of scrutiny. Of course if this were to turn into legislation, it would still leave out a whole class of producer - that operated like a the equivalent of the beer micro-brewery ie: a small commercial producer selling direct to the public. Surely we would expect some type of standards to be adhered to if fuel was being sold to the public. I agree with you, however, that if certifications and registration were made universal, that could be to the detriment of the home producer (depending on how costly this becomes) and that would not be desirable. The solutions to world energy requirements post cheap oil (ie: today) has to involve lots of different solutions at the local level with local people who care about their local environment( and therefore the global environment). We can't leave it to big business to solve this one because we already know where their values are and what results that leads to. Steve On Wednesday 22 February 2006 02:04 pm, Kenji James Fuse wrote: So here's the latest I've found for Canada. The push is on for the government of Canada to establish a Federal registration and certification program for all biodiesel producers, importers to guarantee all biodiesel into the Canadian petroleum fuel distribution system meets the accepted North American quality standard ASTM D6751. Quality = Good Registration and Certification at the Government Level = BAD Here's the full report: http://www.www.canadianbioenergy.com/Resources/ DEVELOPING_A_CANADIAN_BIODIESEL_INDUSTRY.pdf My worry is the micro- and small-scale producer (ie backyard brewer) is going to be penalized if not criminalized, very shortly in Canada. Let's have our own accreditation system so I can talk to my elected offical and make sure we aren't screwed over in favour of big tax dollar lobbyists! Kenji Fuse ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
Re: [Biofuel] Looking for still materials in Houston, TX
Mark, I llved in Dallas for 10 years and I found that Apex Supply always had what I needed. I also worked for Home Depot so I understand that they don't always have the specialty items. http://www.apexsupplyco.com/branches.htm They have several branches around Texas, the closest to you is Austin but perhaps they can either ship parts to you or you can contact them for a suggestoin on a closer source in Houston. Steve On Thursday 16 February 2006 08:43 am, Mark Kennedy wrote: Home Depot was my first stop. I have three of them within 10 mins of my house. the home depot's around here only carry copper pipe up to 1 diameter. 1.5 and 2 is uncommon in residential use here because of the climate, i suppose. i wish i knew a plumber here... but... pvc is plentiful but i have seen recommendations against it. anything wrong with building one out of pvc for first-time short-term use? -Mark -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Zeke Yewdall Sent: Wednesday, February 15, 2006 12:16 PM To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org Subject: Re: [Biofuel] Looking for still materials in Houston, TX They all look like standard hardware store items to me, but I'm also spoiled by a really good hardware store in town. Have you tried Home Depot? They might have stuff which could be made to work. On 2/15/06, Mark Kennedy [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I am looking for materials for constructing an ethanol still out of copper pipe and fittings like the one shown below: http://www.moonshine-still.com/ materials list is here, the second one down on the page: Internal Reflux Still: http://www.moonshine-still.com/Appendix%201.htm any ideas where I can find the materials in Houston? i cannot buy wholesale and that is the only source i have found. thanks Mark ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/ -- Steve Racz (03) 383 8167 [EMAIL PROTECTED] ___ Biofuel mailing list Biofuel@sustainablelists.org http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages): http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
