http://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/22/solar-pv-freeze-shale-gas-steps-reports-finds/
[Nice to see an analysis which understands which renewables line up
against which fossil fuels for major demand sectors. For over a decade,
cheap, low-efficiency natural gas 'peaker' plants have been the utility
go-to solution for meeting this peak demand in North America.
Relatively cheap capital build and relatively cheap fuel, fairly high
availability and dispatchability. PV is a match to electrical utility
demand for natural gas in warm climates, as a major variable load is for
air conditioning, which tends to rise and fall with local solar energy
availability. Free fuel and dropping capital costs means there is a
line where the economics favour PV for utility use. Personally, I
suspect we have recently crossed it, despite depressed prices for
natural gas.
Where natural gas is being used as a heating fuel, probably not much of
a demand alignment. Upgrading insulation and weather-sealing is still
probably the best 'renewable' match for that use of natural gas.
links and images in on-line article]
Solar PV Could Freeze Shale Gas In Its Steps, Reports Finds
February 22nd, 2015 by James Ayre
Editor’s Note: The media has hyped up the “shale gas revolution” like
it’s another Kardashian. Swell, that’s all we need. But the fact of the
matter is, shale gas is just going to be a big story for a relatively
short period of time, and that time may already be coming to an end…
according to at least one report. Solar on the other hand, is the hot
new kid on the block. However, solar is going to be a mammoth in the
energy field. Even Shell (the oil company) has forecast it being bigger
than oil, gas, or any other source of energy by the end of the century —
and it’s forecast is actually a pessimistic take on things. Solar costs
will just keep coming down over time, too, while limited fossil fuels
keep rise in price. The story is more predictable than a Hollywood
movie. James discusses the matter and a recent report more in the Solar
Love repost below, following the extra image. —Zachary Shahan
======================================================================
A new report from a noted international energy research company has put
forward the argument that solar PV could potentially disrupt the US
energy markets in the same sort of way, and to a similar degree, as the
shale industry did a few years back.
And, it could potentially impact natural gas markets to a great enough
degree to the stop the shale “revolution” dead in its tracks.
The new report — from the energy research company Wood Mackenzie — makes
the note that with the minor disruptions to natural gas markets that we
are already seeing in California, a broader disruption of these markets
could occur as a result of growing solar PV attractiveness… within the
near future.
The research director for America’s power and renewable research arm of
Wood Mackenzie, Prajit Ghosh, noted: “The role of solar in the North
American power market has snowballed from a science experiment and a
niche technology at best, to a key renewable competitor to wind, a
regional threat for non-renewable technologies, and a potential
disruptor of utility business models and the power industry at large.”
With falling solar costs (balance of systems costs in particular), and
rising conversion efficiencies, solar appears to be nearing a breakout
point, according to Ghosh.
“While more efficient solar technology may command a higher module
price, the capacity gains per square meter usually make high-efficiency
modules more economic on a $/W basis,” Ghosh stated.
Commenting on the potential of emerging solar modalities, such as
perovskites and organic PV, senior analyst Chad Singleton, stated:
“While these technologies are nowhere near commercial availability at
the moment, they have a promising potential as an immensely versatile
source of power generation.”
According to the report, by 2020, solar PV costs will be at grid parity
in 19 states — and 38 by 2030. The prediction is that, owing to grid
parity, installed capacity in the US will reach 71 gigawatts (GW) by 2035.
The report does note, though, that there are potential barriers between
that number and where we are now — in particular, “reliability concerns,
legal statutes, and other factors… including the indirect impact of
lower oil prices on drilling activity and consequent gas prices.”
If rapid growth is to be seen, the report concludes, the solar industry
needs to develop “compensations mechanisms.”
“Solar rooftops reduce the need for grid-connected power but do not
eliminate it,” Ghosh continued. “Thus, issues around assigning fixed
cost charges to maintain the grid have and will continue to rise.”
A lot is expected to happen in the coming years, one way or another. It
should be interesting to watch, and participate in!
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