[VO]: Biomass/ Ethanol economics
Howdy Vorts, I am trying to reconcile the economics of building a sophisicated chemical processing plant with a 25 M/G/Y capacity of gasoline at $ 2.00 gallon cost of production with the world I live in. Richard http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20828/?nlid=1112
Re: [VO]: Biomass/ Ethanol economics
Well, if you believe Congressman Matheson, his new bill will drop the sales price of gas to $2.00. http://www.kcpw.org/article/6217 I have noticed a significant improvement in traffic in my commute. Papers in Atlanta say that, overall, ridership of transit has increased 10%. I can verify a 7% increase on MARTA alone. I have also noticed fewer trucks and SUVs are on the road. I can usually see traffic ahead of me from my Scion xB. This was not the case when most vehicles were trucks and SUVs. If these trends continue, there will be a noticable impact on gas demand. My 400 mile weekly commute only takes me 10 gallons; but, my neighbor's Tahoe consumes 40 gallons over the same distance. His purchase of a Prius would have significantly higher impact on demand than my purchase of the same. It happened before due to the oil embargo of the 70s. The cartels suffered a financial backlash as consumers did not consume. Hopefully, this time it will be permanent. No, I really don't think you should make that investment, Richard. Terry On Wed, Jun 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM, R C Macaulay [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Howdy Vorts, I am trying to reconcile the economics of building a sophisicated chemical processing plant with a 25 M/G/Y capacity of gasoline at $ 2.00 gallon cost of production with the world I live in. Richard http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20828/?nlid=1112
Re: [VO]: Biomass/ Ethanol economics
I suggest we have three separate issues here. 1. Cost of oil that is used to make gasoline. 2. Cost of gasoline. 3. How much oil is used in the US for transportation. Each of these issues have a different solution and consequence. As Terry pointed out and I have seen also, use of gasoline in the US is going down as people try to protect their own personal livelihood. This change will help individuals. However, the cost of oil and the resulting gasoline depends on many interrelated forces, speculation being only one of them. As long as people believe that the price of oil will go up, they will buy futures, thereby causing the price to go up. This is a natural and essential feature of the futures market, the purpose of which is to shift the risk from the producer to the speculator. The expectation is being driven by the demand from China and India, by the fact that production has peaked, and the insane policy of the US in the Middle East. No amount of jawboning by politicians will change these factors. The US had a chance several years ago when the Energy Bill was passed to reduce our use of oil. Now we are paying the expected and predicted consequences. At some point in the future, the speculators will sense that the world-wide demand is going down and reverse their positions. At that point, the price will drop for awhile. Meanwhile, the US will shift more to hybrids and other methods to save energy and the Chinese with shift from bicycles to SUVs. As a result, the price will go up again. So, I suggest you protect yourself as best you can because the situation will get much worse before it gets better for awhile. Ed Terry Blanton wrote: Well, if you believe Congressman Matheson, his new bill will drop the sales price of gas to $2.00. http://www.kcpw.org/article/6217 I have noticed a significant improvement in traffic in my commute. Papers in Atlanta say that, overall, ridership of transit has increased 10%. I can verify a 7% increase on MARTA alone. I have also noticed fewer trucks and SUVs are on the road. I can usually see traffic ahead of me from my Scion xB. This was not the case when most vehicles were trucks and SUVs. If these trends continue, there will be a noticable impact on gas demand. My 400 mile weekly commute only takes me 10 gallons; but, my neighbor's Tahoe consumes 40 gallons over the same distance. His purchase of a Prius would have significantly higher impact on demand than my purchase of the same. It happened before due to the oil embargo of the 70s. The cartels suffered a financial backlash as consumers did not consume. Hopefully, this time it will be permanent. No, I really don't think you should make that investment, Richard. Terry On Wed, Jun 25, 2008 at 8:15 AM, R C Macaulay [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Howdy Vorts, I am trying to reconcile the economics of building a sophisicated chemical processing plant with a 25 M/G/Y capacity of gasoline at $ 2.00 gallon cost of production with the world I live in. Richard http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20828/?nlid=1112
Re: [VO]: Biomass/ Ethanol economics
Edmund Storms wrote: I suggest we have three separate issues here. . . . 3. How much oil is used in the US for transportation. That I can answer: petroleum and NGPL (Natural Gas Plant Liquids) Inputs: 15.0 quads U.S. production 23.8 quads inputs 38.8 total Outputs: 25.7 (60%) transportation 5.7 (15%) non-fuel (plastic feedstocks and so on) 3.3 (9%) industrial 2.2 (6%) residential 1.2 (3%) electric power generation 1% misc. See: http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/NRELenergyover.pdf Last page. Note that transpiration is by far the least efficient sector. Most of the oil goes into waste heat. - Jed
Re: [VO]: Biomass/ Ethanol economics
Howdy Ed, While it is possible that each of the three may have solutions, none are the prime issue which is the posture of the US Govt. Anyone that has a recent experience with visiting a social security office is well aware of the real issue. I wondered why an armed guard was needed ar a SS office. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRBchZLkQR0 This vid clip says more than words and is indicative of the attitude of the young educated. Ask them and hear their view that the system is broken and the only way to fix it is to allow it to collapse. They may be correct because the mid generation operates on the assumption that homeland security and FEMA will be there to protect us in times of calamity... BUT.. not if there are stuck on an escalator. Ever notince the vids of the people stranded on the freeway overpass in New Orleans in the Katrina flood? Notice the TV crews in trucks that drove in. How did the trucks get there if the roads were flooded? THe same for the superdome and the convention center. the giant escalator stopped and the people are helpless. Richard Ed Storms wrote, I suggest we have three separate issues here. 1. Cost of oil that is used to make gasoline. 2. Cost of gasoline. 3. How much oil is used in the US for transportation. Each of these issues have a different solution and consequence.
