Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread David Gerard
2009/7/14 Charles Matthews charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com: I think you're probably right that a new departure needs to be made: we're at best mediocre at devising new recognition mechanisms. How about a project aimed (since we are coming up to three million articles) at shifting the balance

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Charles Matthews
David Gerard wrote: 2009/7/14 Charles Matthews charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com: I think you're probably right that a new departure needs to be made: we're at best mediocre at devising new recognition mechanisms. How about a project aimed (since we are coming up to three million articles)

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Ian Woollard
On 14/07/2009, Charles Matthews charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote: I do spend more time on upgrading stubs than I used to, and I guess this will be true of anyone who is driven by what they find on the site. When we last discussed total article numbers, four million seemed a good enough

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Charles Matthews
Ian Woollard wrote: It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia%27s_growth#Logistic_model_for_growth_in_article_count_of_Wikipedia We'll know

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread geni
2009/7/14 Charles Matthews charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com: Ian Woollard wrote: It's looking to me like 3.5 million is about the plateau, since the curve is bang on that, but we might make 4 million *eventually*.

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread David Gerard
2009/7/14 Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.com: I don't see any evidence for an asymptote at all yet. We're only about ~1300 per day now, and the trend is clearly downwards, on a *log* graph of *percentage* growth against time it's a straightish line downwards, and the size of the wiki seems

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Carcharoth
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 4:50 PM, David Gerarddger...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/7/14 Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.com: I don't see any evidence for an asymptote at all yet. We're only about ~1300 per day now, and the trend is clearly downwards, on a *log* graph of *percentage* growth against

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread geni
2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: Are you saying the numbers could go negative?? Contraction in real-terms? :-/ Carcharoth It's happened at least once. Long term it would be unlikely since most deletions are of new articles. -- geni

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Sage Ross
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 11:50 AM, David Gerarddger...@gmail.com wrote: Here's a question: how many articles are created and deleted within 24 hours? In early 2007, I did a quick and dirty estimate that about 2400 articles were deleted per day, at a time when the net gain per day was around

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Carcharoth
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 5:00 PM, genigeni...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: Are you saying the numbers could go negative?? Contraction in real-terms? :-/ Carcharoth It's happened at least once. Long term it would be unlikely since most deletions are of

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Sage Ross
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 12:00 PM, genigeni...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: Are you saying the numbers could go negative?? Contraction in real-terms? :-/ Carcharoth It's happened at least once. Long term it would be unlikely since most deletions are of

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread geni
2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 5:00 PM, genigeni...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: Are you saying the numbers could go negative?? Contraction in real-terms? :-/ Carcharoth It's happened at least once. Long term

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Charles Matthews
geni wrote: We'll know more around the beginning of 2010. In my view something is likely to change in the direction of people valuing lists of missing articles more, when it is clearer that drive-by creation is getting drossier by the month (which is what that model implies). Of course I

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Carcharoth
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 5:06 PM, Carcharothcarcharot...@googlemail.com wrote: On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 5:03 PM, Sage Rossragesoss+wikipe...@gmail.com wrote: On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 12:00 PM, genigeni...@gmail.com wrote: 2009/7/14 Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.com: Are you saying the

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Charles Matthews
sineWAVE wrote: Redlinks are likely to be a poor estimate of numbers of missing articles anyway. Some will be to articles that would be non-notable, and redlinks tend to be removed - in other words links that would be present if we had the article aren't there as redlinks. Who are these

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Charles Matthews
Ian Woollard wrote: If it does finally plateau half the days will be negative of course; and they'll become more common before we reach the plateau just due to randomness. But if we start having negative weeks, stick a fork in her, she's probably done! Do we have any plans for when we'll be

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 12:38 PM, Carcharothcarcharot...@googlemail.com wrote: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Jaranda/Wikipedia%27s_first_IRC_chat Took me long enough to find it! And it wasn't what I thought it was. No deletionism or inclusionism jokes there. Maybe you were thinking of the

Re: [WikiEN-l] Featured churn

2009-07-14 Thread Carcharoth
On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 5:57 PM, Gwern Branwengwe...@gmail.com wrote: On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 12:38 PM, Carcharothcarcharot...@googlemail.com wrote: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Jaranda/Wikipedia%27s_first_IRC_chat Took me long enough to find it! And it wasn't what I thought it was. No