euractiv.com
<https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/opinion/americas-new-instrumen
t-in-the-balkans/>  


America's new instrument in the Balkans


Orhan Dragaš

5-6 minutes

  _____  

The 'European way' in the Balkans has led to an excessive waste of time in
achieving the strategic goals of bringing the region into the Western
structures, and consequently, the new US administration will now try to make
up for it, writes Orhan Dragaš.

Dr Orhan Dragaš from the International Security Institute is the author of
the book "Two faces of globalisation - truth and deceptions".

"America will do everything, and it will help you, in every way, in your
efforts to become part of Europe. There is no limit to the amount of that
assistance".

These were the words of Colin Powell addressed to Serbia and Montenegro on 2
April 2003, three weeks after the assassination of Prime Minister Zoran
Đinđić, when the then Secretary of State suddenly visited Belgrade.

It is a timely tribute to Colin Powell to look back, and forward, at the
American policy towards the Balkans. But there is also interesting news.

Major personnel reset of the American diplomatic team in charge of the
Balkans is underway.

New ambassadors are arriving in Belgrade, Pristina, Sarajevo, and possibly
in Podgorica, and they are being sent from Washington by the newly appointed
"boss" for the Balkans at the State Department, Gabriel Escobar. These few
people have more than a hundred years of joint experience in the Balkans.

We should not say that America is "returning to the Balkans", not only
because the wording is worn out, but also because it is incorrect.

If America had not really been in the region in recent years, Croatia would
not have become a member of the EU, nor would the entire Western Balkans,
except Serbia and BiH, be in NATO today.

North Macedonia would have its old, shorter name, but would still be
isolated and blocked for any integration. Montenegro would be shaken by
internal conflicts, not for one year but for at least a decade, and Serbia
and Kosovo would be very far from any dialogue, and literally pitted against
each other.

The new US team for the Balkans will no doubt have the task of speeding up
the completion of some unfinished business.

Leaving it to the European Union in the past, America tried to leave the
"calming" in the post-conflict period in the Balkans to the master of "soft
power", who has the greatest interest in it.

However, the European way led to an excessive waste of time, and
consequently to the blurring of a goal that should have remained crystal
clear until its final fulfilment, and that for the entire Balkans to be
integrated into the EU and/or NATO, which is America's long-standing
undisguised interest.

The new American approach in the Balkans will primarily focus on resolving
the two main crisis areas, namely Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

That will be the focus of the new ambassadors in Belgrade, Christopher Hill,
in Sarajevo, Michael Murphy and in Pristina, Jeffrey Hovenier, as well as
their colleague in Washington, Gabriel Escobar.

Their expertise is outstanding, but it will certainly not be enough to get
the job done. The new US policy will need to be creative and authoritative
enough to bring progress. What could that mean in practice?

Although each of them individually has personal experience from the war or
from post-war years in the Balkans, the new diplomatic team should not be
expected to stick to old models. Christopher Hill was in Rambouillet and was
a high-ranking diplomat during the 1999 Kosovo war, but he will not bring
Rambouillet to his new job in Belgrade.

The US interests are the same as they were two decades ago, but there will
be other means to achieve them.

It is clear that the mission of Christopher Hill and others from the team in
the Balkans will be a combination of decisive diplomacy, boosted by
punishing local politicians and key players by individual sanctions, as an
important segment of Biden's foreign policy.

After Afghanistan, America will not be able to describe itself as a "world
policeman", but to a great extent, it does play the role of world
prosecutor.

After Afghanistan, however, it will be difficult to rely on NATO in this new
policy.

Montenegro is a good example that cohesion in NATO was weakened even before
the withdrawal from Afghanistan, because the arrival of the new government
in Podgorica also marked Russia's deep penetration into the affairs of this
NATO member, to which the Alliance had no answer, except for occasional
impersonal statements.

That is why Gabriel Escobar recently stated very openly that the United
States (therefore not NATO) had various diplomatic and political mechanisms
to oppose Russia's influence (but also Serbia's destructive actions) in
Montenegro, mentioning individual sanctions and political isolation.

With its new team in the Balkans, America will act alone and in its own
name, and if it needs assistance in anything, it will find it in the EU
(Belgrade-Pristina negotiations), NATO (Montenegro) or in a specific Western
ally, for example, Germany, when it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

And it probably won't leave the "job" to anyone else until it's finished, in
the sense that Colin Powell spoke about.

 

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