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EU and the Western Balkans: Five Things to Watch in 2026
EWB
2–3 minutes
________________________________

A Year of Division

Expected developments in 2026 hint towards division of the region between EU 
hopefuls and left-behinds, but significant changes or shocks are also possible.

31.12.2025.

11 min read

EU-Western Balkans Summit 2025; Photo: European Union

The year 2025 has been a very eventful year for the Western Balkans. While 
Montenegro and Albania made huge steps towards EU membership, enabling 
manifestation of EU’s political will to enlarge, the rest of the region failed 
to catch up and faced political turmoil. In Serbia in particular there was 
political instability and violence, as well as another blow to its government’s 
EU progress aspirations.

Next year it seems likely there will be similar developments. Montenegro and 
Albania are expected to march on, Serbia finds itself in yet more political 
turmoil as the government refuses to hold snap elections despite huge protests, 
while outlook on the EU progress of North Macedonia, Kosovo and Bosnia and 
Herzegovina is far from optimistic. These developments hint towards division of 
the region between EU hopefuls and left-behinds.

However, the continuation of these trends is far from certain and several 
developments in 2026 might lead to significant changes or even shocks. Serbia 
is in for a decisive year which could put the country on a democratic or fully 
authoritarian trajectory- both with region-wide reprecussions – while 
Montenegro and Albania’s progress in 2026 might be crucial for fullfilment of 
their EU ambitions.

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