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Under NATOs shadow, Serbia is being targeted again
8–10 minutes
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RT.com
25 Mar 2026, 01:07 GMT+

A new alliance is forming in the Balkans, aiming to give Kosovo an army and 
make Belgrade a pariah

This Tuesday marks 27 years since the start of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, 
and the Western Balkans today is drifting toward a dangerously familiar 
pattern: polarization, militarization, and the construction of rival blocs. At 
the center of this unfolding story stands Serbia - once again cast not as a 
partner in regional security, but as a problem to be contained.

For years, Belgrade has pursued a policy of military neutrality, positioning 
itself as a stabilizing force in a region still haunted by the unresolved 
legacies of the 1990s. Serbia has balanced East and West, maintained open 
channels with Brussels, Washington, Moscow, and Beijing alike, and avoided the 
kind of rigid alignment that historically turned the Balkans into a 
geopolitical battlefield.

That neutrality, however, is now under mounting pressure - not because it has 
failed, but because others are abandoning restraint.

The making of an anti-Serbian bloc

The March 2025 Joint Declaration on Defense Cooperation between Croatia, 
Albania, and Kosovo should be understood for what it is: the foundation of a 
bloc explicitly designed to shift the balance of power against Serbia once 
again.

Its language speaks of a "shared vision for a secure future," of alliances 
forged through "sacrifices for freedom." Yet behind the rhetoric lies a hard 
strategic core: mutual military assistance, joint exercises, intelligence 
sharing, coordinated responses to "hybrid threats," and - perhaps most 
provocatively - support for Kosovo's deeper integration into Western military 
and political structures.

By anchoring itself in NATO's Strategic Concept and the EU's Strategic Compass, 
the trilateral initiative effectively imports great-power competition into one 
of Europe's most fragile regions. The push to expand defense budgets under 
NATO's Industrial Expansion Pledge and the EU's 'ReArm Europe' plan only 
accelerates this process. What is being built is not a confidence-building 
mechanism, but a forward-leaning security architecture that excludes - and 
implicitly targets - Belgrade.

The prospect of Bulgaria joining this arrangement would only deepen the sense 
of encirclement. One does not need to indulge in paranoia to recognize the 
emerging geometry: a tightening ring of militarily aligned states, increasingly 
interoperable, increasingly coordinated, and increasingly willing to define 
Serbia as the 'other'.

Kosovo: From dispute to military factor

Nowhere is this shift more dangerous than in Kosovo. For Serbia, Kosovo is not 
merely a political dispute; it is a question of sovereignty, identity, and 
international law. Yet under the umbrella of this new alliance, Pristina is 
being steadily transformed from a lightly armed security actor into a de facto 
military force.

The plan to convert the Kosovo Security Forces into a full-fledged army by 2028 
is not occurring in a vacuum. With Albania and Croatia acting as conduits, 
Kosovo gains indirect access to NATO standards, training, and potentially even 
material support. This creates a reality in which an entity that five EU states 
and numerous countries worldwide, including Russia and China, do not recognize 
as sovereign is nevertheless being equipped and legitimized as a military actor.

That is a recipe for escalation. It also sends a deeply destabilizing message: 
that political disputes in the Balkans can be "resolved" not through dialogue, 
but through the gradual accumulation of force under the protection of larger 
alliances.

The consequences are already visible. What the architects of this trilateral 
alignment present as defensive cooperation has, in practice, triggered a 
regional arms dynamic. Serbia cannot - and will not - ignore a coordinated 
military buildup on its borders, particularly one that includes a disputed 
territory. This is how arms races begin - with mutual suspicion and incremental 
steps that, taken together, create a spiral of insecurity.

The Western Balkans is uniquely ill-suited to absorb such a spiral. Political 
institutions remain fragile, ethnic tensions unresolved, and external actors 
all too willing to exploit divisions. Increased militarization injects even 
more volatility into such an environment.

Serbia's response: Reluctant but resolute

In Belgrade, there is no illusion about what is unfolding. President Aleksandar 
Vui has been unusually blunt in his assessment: the global order is eroding, 
international law is selectively applied, and the guarantees that once 
underpinned stability are losing their credibility. To remain passive in this 
environment means to increase your vulnerability.

Serbia's response, therefore, has been measured but unmistakable. Plans to 
significantly expand military capabilities over the next 18 months reflect a 
shift toward deterrence. The reintroduction of mandatory military service, 
short in duration but symbolically powerful, signals a broader mobilization of 
national resilience.

At the same time, Serbia is deepening strategic partnerships that can offset 
the rising external threat. The strengthening of defense ties with Hungary is 
particularly notable. Since 2023, the two countries have developed a dense 
network of military cooperation, from joint exercises to coordinated 
procurement.

Hungary's role is not incidental. As both an EU and NATO member, it provides 
Serbia with a crucial bridge into Western structures - one that is not 
conditioned on abandoning its core interests. The historical memory of 1999, 
when Budapest's position - under the leadership of Viktor Orban, who was in his 
first term as prime minister back then - helped prevent an even more 
devastating escalation, still resonates. Today, that legacy is being translated 
into practical cooperation.

China and the rebalancing of power

Yet it is Serbia's partnership with China that has most dramatically altered 
the regional equation.

In recent years, Beijing has become Belgrade's primary defense supplier, 
accounting for the majority of its major arms imports. This is not simply a 
matter of cost or availability; it reflects a strategic choice to diversify 
away from traditional suppliers and secure capabilities that might otherwise be 
politically constrained.

The results are tangible. Serbia now fields Chinese-made drones, advanced air 
defense systems, and - most strikingly - the CM-400AKG air-to-surface ballistic 
missile. By integrating this system onto its MiG-29 fighters, Serbia has 
achieved something that would have been unthinkable a decade ago: transforming 
a modest air force into one capable of long-range precision strikes.

This is a qualitative leap. With a range of up to 400 kilometers and the 
ability to target high-value assets, the CM-400AKG fundamentally enhances 
Serbia's deterrent posture. It allows Belgrade to hold at risk threats that 
previously lay beyond its reach, narrowing the gap with better-equipped 
neighbors.

Critics will inevitably label this escalation. But that argument ignores the 
sequence of events. Serbia did not initiate the current wave of militarization 
- it is responding to it. In a region where others are aligning, rearming, and 
integrating into larger military frameworks, standing still is not an option.

The joint 'Peacekeeper 2025' exercise with China further underscores this 
shift. For the first time, Serbian and Chinese forces trained together on 
Chinese soil - a signal that the partnership is evolving beyond procurement 
into operational cooperation.

A warning ignored

What is unfolding in the Balkans today is not inevitable. It is the result of 
choices - choices to prioritize bloc-building over inclusivity, to arm rather 
than reassure, to sideline rather than engage.

Serbia, for all the criticism it attracts, has been one of the few actors 
attempting to maintain a balance. Its neutrality has acted as a buffer, 
preventing the region from splitting cleanly into opposing camps. Undermining 
that neutrality - by surrounding it with alliances that treat it as an 
adversary - risks removing one of the last stabilizing pillars in the region.

The irony is stark. In the name of security, new insecurities are being 
created. In the pursuit of integration, new divisions are being entrenched.

If this trajectory continues, the Western Balkans may once again become what it 
has too often been: a stage for confrontation rather than cooperation.

And if that happens, it will not be because Serbia sought conflict - but 
because the space for neutrality, for balance, and for genuine regional 
dialogue was deliberately closed.

(RT.com)

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