On 17-Jul-06, at 4:32 PM, Eugen Leitl wrote:
No, you're not listening. The price is volatile. The investments
required are enormous. This is a case where markets don't work at
all well.
They start working when you're removing volatility by artificial
means, such as e.g. making a fossil tax ratchet. That way, the price
can only go up, not down.
Either we're running out of oil, OR oil price can go down in the future.
Pick one. Both can't be true.
Unless oil is outcompeted by some other energy tech, in which case
there's no problem anyway.
I also must object that you're only mentioning fossils.
I didn't restrict my argument to fossils. What I said was :
Also, oil shale is just one example energy source (as is oil itself).
There are plenty of others.
Clearly, I'm saying oil and oil shale are far from the only energy
sources
available. To which you replied:
There are not very many fossils others.
It would seem you're the one stuck on fossils.
most of long-shot R&D is done by the state.
Examples? What R&D has any state done that has resulted in real, huge,
productive (i.e. WMDs not eligible) tech advances?
Just about every technology of the modern world, from powered flight to
telecom satellites, the transistor, microprocessor, digital computer,
laser,
radio, just about every type of lighting (from incandescent, fluorescent
and gas discharge to LED and OLED), LCD, TV, the assembly line, the
automobile, even oil refineries, all are the result of private R&D.
So what, exactly, are you talking about?
#!
