Perry E. Metzger wrote, [on 6/3/2008 9:23 PM]:
I continue to be quite impressed by the quality of Vernor Vinge's
original essay 15 years ago:
http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html
I think at this point he's a little bit off on the timing, though
perhaps he isn't. :)
He still thinks he's on the mark [1]
So what do I mean by “fairly near” future? In my 1993 essay, “The Coming
Technological Singularity,” I said I'd be surprised if the singularity had not
happened by 2030. I'll stand by that claim, assuming we avoid the showstopping
catastrophes—things like nuclear war, superplagues, climate crash—that we
properly spend our anxiety upon.
Udhay
[1] http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306
--
((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com))
