On Thursday 21 Aug 2008 4:13:52 pm Bonobashi wrote:
> And if they vote for us, Shiv can buy the beer.

er my dear fellow Macaulayite. Do you really think Indian politicians will 
agree to an election/vote/referendum/plebiscite that they are not sure of 
winning? Or at least trying to win again after a few years even if they lose 
now? 

Pakistan will surely rig their side of the elections. And India?

India will make sure it wins.

"Neutral observers" will never be allowed in. Indians have a chip on their 
collective shoulders about the role of the "great powers" and will not 
tolerate anyone. As for other nations - Indians consider every nation on 
earth to be a lackey of one or other of the said great powers. (Hello. India 
is "non aligned" remember)

The mess after a sham referendum will only mean that India is publcly willing 
to play the same game as Pakistan rather than rest on its belief of its own 
moral superiority.

I repeat that the game is to make it impossible for Kashmir to secede by 
sinking in so much money and effort that all separatism looks like 
ingratitude. The distant threat of repealing Article 370 is always held in 
abeyance - just like the actual deadly descent of Damocles' sword is always a 
possibility. If Article 370 goes - "Kashmiris" will be about 25 million 
Indians from Bihar, Jharkhand, MP, Punjab, Orissa and Kerala.

The "Kashmir problem" started as part of the Pakistan problem. It will settle 
along with the Pakistan problem. As far as I can tell the vast majority of 
Indians are willing to sit it out.   It is a small minority of sensitive and 
educated Indians who think that Kashmiri separatists have a case. Having 
fought several wars to keep Pakistan the nation state off Kashmir it is 
totally naive to think that a few separatists having yet another orgy of 
rioting is going to change anything. 

Indians by and large are carrying around this huge chip on their shoulder that 
I referred to earlier. Indians - predominantly Hindus have this enormous 
grievance that makes them feel that the world has given them a raw deal and 
that the world does not give them due importance even after they have been 
wronged (in a lo-ong list of historic wrongs). The Kashmir problem a symbol 
of one of the ways Indians feel they have been wronged. No viewpoint other 
than keeping Kashmir a part of India is going to be tolerated. Arguments 
about suffering Kashmiris are a tremendous joke because several hundred 
million Indians feel they are suffering too and feel as "deprived" as any 
Kashmiri and the votes of a few million Kashmiris is going to have to be 
counted against the votes of several hundred million Indians. The India 
politician wil never forget that unles he is suicidal.

It is unique to the politically detached English speaking elite of India to be 
unable to see how Indian emotions are used to ensure that Kashmir will go 
nowhere in a hurry. A few Arundhati Roys and Vir Sanghvis notwithstanding.

shiv



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