On 09/10/2014 01:15 AM, SS wrote:
On Wed, 2014-09-10 at 10:14 +0530, Udhay Shankar N wrote:
Again, not really. It turns out that the pace of change is such that
such studies are not the most useful way to deal with the future.
Udhay the pace of change is exactly what I am talking about. Who does
the studies that tell us how humans adapt and use game-changing
technology when the pace of change is slow (many generations), or medium
fast (one generation) or super-fast (every few years). Usefulness or
lack thereof of data cannot be pre-determined in the absence of that
data.
I think that history can be a very useful guide to slow change, and
perhaps helpful with moderate change. I also think it will fail utterly
to provide examples of "super-fast" change, as mankind hasn't had to
deal with that before in the manner we do today.
Without such historical precedent, science -- especially social science
-- well, it doesn't so much fail as it completely misses the point.
Hence the resort to thoughtful authors writing fiction as our best
alternative.
Note please the plural "authors" in the above. None of us will guess
right, but with enough of us writing, presumably different scenarios,
there may be meta data worth gathering, and some may come sufficiently
close to offer some guidance.
Ignoring pace of change and its effect on humanity as a subject of study
would be a mistake.
This is obvious, yet many will continue to insist that history can offer
relevant answers. I do not believe that it can.
... I am looking for ostensibly "neutral" and "academic and broad-based"
studies.
But they aren't available because we don't have any other example of a
culture enduring such a high rate of technological change for such an
extended period. Academia, by its nature, cannot address novel phenomenon.
If you want "broad-based", read *lots* of science fiction.
Regards,
Bruce
