Well, another flu pandemic "will" surely happen.  "When" is another
question.  

I have reasonable confidence that biologists are now more able to
understand some of the vectors and conditions that lead to the creation
of a flu that becomes pandemic in our population.  The conditions for
this happening are occurring.  This is mostly a matter of facts, a
practical matter, not a philosophical or political matter.  

Where you get millions and billions of years is beyond me...  Next
year... etc... 
 It's happened at least 3 times in the 20th century.  You need to
listen to someone who presents the well reasoned arguments and reasons
for this position, not some male or female bimbo who flunked out of
science class and has never heard of statistics who is reporting on your
local TV station...

Even if you don't believe in the effectiveness of vaccine, this does
not debunk the fact that there may be a serious flu epidemic in the near
future.

As far as Michael Osterholm and his presentation.  He is well known in
Minnesota for his work in public health and I don't believe his
integrity is in question.  However, I do feel that he is presenting the
worst case scenario in order to increase public awareness in the hopes
that the public will apply pressure on government to get ready for what
he feels is a real problem and to provide for those things which he
feels will help allay the problem...

Dan



Re: CS>Bird flu question

From: Marshall Dudley wrote: 
Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 14:24:59 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dan Nave wrote:

> I think that the response below is basically a facile rationalization
to
> support and perpetuate a particular personal viewpoint.
>
> There were flu pandemics in the 19th and 20th centuries.  These were
> certainly not made and spread on purpose by governments.

They were also not announced in advance by any government.  To announce
something in
advance, that after millions of years a certain mutation of a certain
virus is
expected to happen next year seems awfully far fetched. If this
mutation had already
happened and was spreading that would be another matter. But the
newscast I heard
was them saying that it WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.

> And, you
> should learn something from watching the machinations of the
"Amazing"
> Randy; just because something is possible doesn't mean that it is
being
> done in any particular situation.

You have to look at the flip side. What are the odds that a certain
something that
has not happened in 10 billion years will happen next year
spontaneously.  Not
likely, unless something else is at work.  As I said, I think it is
just to try and
keep the fear factor up, especially since many people are not taking
the terrorist
warnings seriously anymore.

Marshall




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