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IV. Parabolic Population Trend: Jewish Experience 1900-1941
A similar, but not so peculiar population trend is the Jewish experience under Nazi Germany. While the pre-Hitlerian cultural anti-Semitism in Germany was institutionalized, by 1941 hate of Jews was turned into an exterminatory policy. Out of 615,000 Jews in Germany in 1910, virtually none were left by 1945.
When modeled with an exponential function, the Jewish population data during the Nazi period has a correlation coefficient of 0.774, which is below the 90%, thus a bad goodness of fit. Given that a parabolic model shown in Table 4 carries a correlation coefficient of 0.9724, it implies that under circumstances of ethnic animosity and/or genocidal policies a parabolic function is a more appropriate mathematical model for the population trends.
The implications of mathematical analysis of the Jewish population in preWWII Germany are multifold. First, under circumstances of ethnic animosity and/or genocidal policies a parabolic function is a more appropriate mathematical model for the population trends. Given that a parabola appropriately models Kosovo Serb population trend, the analysis strongly suggests that Kosovo Serbs have also been exposed to ethnic animosity and/or genocidal policies.
In addition, under parabolic analysis, it is possible to enumerate the depopulation pressure multiple. Such possibility allows for a cross-cultural numerical comparison of depopulation multiples wherever a parabolic model fits the population trend.
For example, the Jewish population in preWWII Germany
registers a depopulation pressure multiple of 1218.72 while Kosovo Serbs exhibit
a multiple of 346.6. Comparison of the multiples indicates that animosity
exposure/genocidal infliction upon Kosovo Serbs is 28.44% that of the Jewish
exposure in preWWII Germany. Conversely, the comparison also demonstrates a
severity of the Jewish experience: their extermination in Germany occurs 13
years before the extermination of Kosovo Serbs even though the Jewish absolute
population is 64.84% larger then the Kosovo Serb one.
V. Conclusion
While Jewish population analysis during preWWII Germany establishes that a more appropriate mathematical model of ethnic populations under duress is a parabola, an argument can be raised whether the converse is true: Just because population�s trend line can be modeled by a parabola it does not necessarily follow that the population is under duress. Significantly, however, demonstrating that the converse is also true may lend us into a new and bold blanket statement: wherever population exhibits a parabolic decline such population has been under ethnic duress.
While the truth of the converse may be beyond the discussion here, the suspicion that a parabolic population decline immediately means ethnicity under siege may indeed be true.
The suspicion is fueled by peculiarity of Kosovo Serb case and its similarity with Jewish experience in Nazi Germany. Presuming rational behavior of nations, uniform impact of migratory economic incentives, absence of war� such textbook population growth assumptions have impacted Kosovo Albanians to increase their population while Kosovo Serbs to decline in a mathematically similar way the Jews of Nazi Germany.
To the extent that Kosovo Serb population trend line is a parabola, there is
a strong evidence to suggest then that Kosovo Serbs have been exposed to a level
of ethnic duress sufficient enough to induce them to migrate out of Kosovo.
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