Ben,
Good Afternoon. I am a rather new addition to the AGI mailing list and
just read your response concerning the future of AGI. I agree with you.
The funding is there. The belief that AGI is "right around the corner" is
not. From the people I talk with....they have read Kurzweil and understand
the rate of growth of technology ("the curve"). They also understand that
the exponential growth in Kurzweil's graphs represents processing power and
this dynamic will substantively increase as nanotechnology moves from MEM to
a smaller and smaller (atomic possibly) operating environment.
What is difficult for people/investors to gauge is AI/AGI. Businesses
and/or government organizations (not including DARPA) need a strategic plan
for large investments into future technologies. They understand risk but
weigh it against current requirements and long term gain. There are
people/organizations ready to invest if a strong rational analysis on the
timeline is developed and presented in language that they understand. The
latter comment is key. Senior leaders (business, government and just very
wealthy investors) are acutely aware of the hype cycle that occurs with all
new technologies. I have found that overselling is much worse than
underselling.
In my previous position I served as a Deputy Chief of a Trends and
Forecasting Center for the government. My charter was to provide strategic
assessments to corporate leadership for investment purposes. Those
investments could include people, funding or priorities of effort. So, I am
well versed in the interface between developers, customers, senior leaders
and financial backers.
Just my personal opinion...but it appears that the "exponential technology
growth chart", which is used in many of the briefings, does not include
AI/AGI. It is processing centric. When you include AI/AGI the "exponential
technology curve" flattens out in the coming years (5-7) and becomes part of
a normal S curve of development. While computer power and processing will
increase exponentially (as nanotechnology grows) the area of AI will need
more time to develop.
I would be interested in your thoughts.
Regards,
Ben
I am moving to a new position this summer and will be a visiting professor
in academia for two years.
-------------------------------------------
singularity
Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/11983/=now
RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/11983/
Modify Your Subscription:
http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=4007604&id_secret=98631122-712fa4
Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
