The Vietnam War lesson we must remember when Afghanistan votes

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-phillips11-2009apr11,0,6461806.story

Saigon's rigged presidential election undermined U.S. efforts decades 
ago; similar corruption in Kabul can only aid the Taliban today.

By Rufus Phillips
April 11, 2009

Of all the lessons of the Vietnam War, one is particularly important 
to heed this year as Afghanistan prepares to elect a president.

In the early 1970s, while the United States engaged in separate 
negotiations with the North Vietnamese in Paris, an egregiously 
unfair presidential election took place in Saigon.

The sitting president, Nguyen Van Thieu, was widely considered 
corrupt, and the U.S. government knew this. But we not only supported 
him, we also condoned Thieu's manipulation of the elections laws to 
eliminate any potential competition, reinforcing a corrupt regime 
that had lost the faith of its people.

Calling support for Thieu "an imperative of our national interest," 
President Nixon's national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, 
conceded later that "Thieu's methods were unwise," but wrongly 
claimed that forcing him to risk a fair election would have required 
"cutting off all military and economic aid," which the U.S. was 
unwilling to do.

The result? In the words of Thieu's own ambassador to the U.S., the 
rigged election "would prove the most destructive and destabilizing 
factor of all." Ultimately, the election undermined an opportunity 
for the U.S. to leave behind a country whose national leadership had 
strong citizen support and therefore a chance to survive.

President Obama has spoken about the importance of this year's 
presidential election in Afghanistan (set for August), and the U.S. 
has offered $40 million to help fund election mechanics. But no 
mention has yet been made of ensuring the election's honesty.

Two things are widely unpopular in Afghanistan: the Taliban and the 
government of Hamid Karzai. Karzai's government, like that of Thieu 
in Vietnam, is widely believed by his people to be corrupt.

Free and honest elections would undermine the Taliban, which opposes 
the very idea of a popular vote. They would also help the Afghan 
government regain the trust of the people. But if the election is 
perceived to be rigged, it will further undermine the government in 
favor of the Taliban and sap American public support for our 
continued engagement.

Because Afghan elections are entirely dependent on outside financing, 
the United States, together with its partners at NATO and the U.N., 
could have enormous influence over how they are organized and run. 
But only if we condition assistance on practical measures such as 
creating a combined international-Afghan monitoring group capable of 
adjudicating complaints during the election campaign, not just after 
the results are in. We must ensure that the Afghan army and honest 
elements of the police, with our advisory assistance, are free from 
partisan political influence. Together they must ensure security from 
intimidation by either the Taliban or the candidates, both during the 
campaign and at the polls.

The U.S. and its allies would not be working alone. A network of 
local civil society groups called the Foundation for Free Elections 
already exists in Afghanistan. Widespread use of cellphones and a 
relatively free press provide the means to publicize abuses as they 
occur. We need to give such citizen efforts maximum financial support 
from nongovernmental pro-democracy groups in Europe and the U.S., 
such as the National Democratic Institute, so they can hire and train 
more people.

Because President Karzai will remain in power until the elections, 
preventing a misuse of government power in the run-up to the vote 
poses a special challenge. If no candidate gains more than 50% of the 
vote, a runoff is mandated. The pressure of a looming runoff, which 
would be likely in a fair election, could force visible reform, 
putting pressure on Karzai to send his brother, widely accused of 
drug-fueled corruption, into exile. As for the opposing candidates, 
personal honesty is likely to be an attractive attribute. Cleaning up 
that government, whose corruption the Taliban is currently 
exploiting, won't happen overnight, but to be effective it has to 
start at the top, not just at the bottom.

Even at the risk of a reborn terrorist sanctuary, the American public 
is unlikely to support a corrupt Afghan government for long while our 
troops are sustaining significant casualties.
--

Rufus Phillips is the author of "Why Vietnam Matters."

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