TAMPA - After dinner under the stars at a posh resort on a balmy evening in February 2001, Florida Democrats listened as the grand old man of their party, U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, talked about the future.
Many wanted Graham, a party hero from the generation of Govs. Reubin Askew and Lawton Chiles, to leave the Senate and challenge Republican Jeb Bush for governor in 2002.
Graham said no.
``We need to begin to look to a new generation of leaders,'' he told the crowd in Coral Gables. ``In this gathering tonight, there is the next generation, and I encourage you to take that step.''
Today, Graham faces the same kind of decision again.
While he ran for president this year, five well-known Democrats began campaigns, with his encouragement, to replace him in the Senate.
Now that he's out of the presidential race, he's getting pressure from state and national leaders to pre-empt those candidates and run for re-election - a race his party is sure he can win.
But after four years in the state House, eight in the state Senate, eight in the governor's mansion and, as of next year, 18 in Congress, Graham is torn.
Friends say he wants his voice heard on the national stage. But he's not convinced running for re-election to a Senate where his party is likely to stay in the minority is best for him and his family.
His failed presidential venture and heart problems at age 66 probably make him less likely to get offered the vice presidential spot.
It's possible, but then again, if he were to run for Senate and make a late switch to the national ticket, it could create ballot problems making the Florida race tougher for any Democrat.
The Democrats running now, including Betty Castor of Tampa, are waiting to judge whether to stay in the race. Republicans, including Johnnie Byrd of Plant City, are eager to see which rival they're likely to face.
Aides said last week that they expect Graham to decide this week.
Republicans Predict Victory
Republicans say Graham's presidential race weakened him, costing him crossover and independent supporters. And they predict they can beat him if he runs.
Experts say that overestimates the damage, but the race still could be his toughest in decades.
The Republicans wasted no time last week challenging Graham to defend his seat.
Former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum of Longwood said Graham's presidential campaign ``showed a side of himself that the people of Florida greeted with disappointment.''
Firebrand legal activist Larry Klayman of Miami went as far as to blame Graham, as Senate intelligence committee chairman, for failing to prevent the Sept. 11 attacks.
And Byrd said he expects to compare ``my agenda of smaller government and lower taxes with the newfound Vermont values Senator Graham seems to have adopted.''
David Johnson, a veteran political strategist working for state Sen. Daniel Webster, R-Winter Garden, laid out the case against Graham.
``The myth that he is unbeatable is going to be challenged,'' Johnson said. ``Over the years, Graham didn't take stands. He was re-elected on his `go along, get along, nice guy' personality. Ask Floridians to name three things he has done, and they couldn't. But when he ran for president, he gave up that nebulous image.''
Johnson said the Miami Lakes millionaire last faced a well-funded opponent in 1986, when he unseated first- term Sen. Paula Hawkins of Maitland.
In 2004, Johnson said, ``This is going to be a targeted race. The resources will be there for the Republican nominee to get the message out that this is not the Bob Graham you thought you knew.''
That's ``typical political talk,'' said Bill Nelson, Florida's other U.S. senator, a Democrat. ``Bob Graham has such a deep reservoir of political good will in Florida ... he will be re-elected easily.''
Independent experts and at least one poll say Graham's campaign criticism of a Republican president who is popular in Florida did cost him support, but not enough to make him an easy mark.
``Bob Graham's probably more vulnerable now than he ever has been,'' said James Witt, University of North Florida political scientist and Republican activist. ``I think if he runs, it will be a tight race. But he'll win.''
GOP ads probably will attack Graham's comments about President Bush - ``out of context, of course,'' Witt said. They include Graham accusing the administration of misleading the public on Iraq, and suggesting there is as much ground to impeach Bush as there was for Democrat Bill Clinton.
``I'm not going to talk specific tactics,'' Johnson said, ``but the Republican nominee will have to remind people what Bob Graham actually said about the president.''
The Tampa Tribune published poll results in July showing Graham's popularity in Florida had dropped below 50 percent for the first time since 1986.
Still, pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research said, ``I wouldn't put him on the endangered incumbents list by any stretch of the imagination. This means he'd win by 55 [percent] or 56 percent instead of the usual 60s.''
The Democrats running now - Castor, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and U.S. Reps. Allen Boyd of Monticello, Peter Deutsch of Pembroke Pines and Alcee Hastings of Miramar - all say they won't stay in against Graham. But if they make way, and he later quits the race to become a running mate, the party would face ballot problems.
State Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox contends Graham could run legally for Senate and vice president at the same time, as Connecticut's Joe Lieberman did in 2000.
That's not true, according to an informal response from attorney Sharon Larson of the Florida Elections Division. But Maddox said litigation could prove otherwise.
`Ballot Insurance'
Some Democrats want ``ballot insurance'' - at least one candidate filed for the seat along with Graham, not to run against him but to replace him if needed.
Party insiders said the decision has been difficult for Graham. ``He is completely agonizing over it,'' said one state party official who has talked to him.
``He loved being a chief executive, a governor,'' a top national party official said. ``I don't think he's really enjoyed being senator.''
In 2002, Democrats became the Senate minority, which cost Graham the intelligence committee chairmanship that made him a leading voice on terrorism and the Sept. 11 attacks. Majority status makes legislative service more enjoyable, and most experts say odds are against the Democrats retaking Senate control next year.
Still, Democrats say Graham could hold his seat without national party help, increasing its odds of switching enough seats elsewhere - two - to regain control.
The question ``is bigger than Florida politics,'' Maddox said. ``I think the country needs people like him to navigate us through some very troubled waters.''
Graham and family members have been in Massachusetts this weekend - he has a daughter near Boston - while they wrestle with the question, a spokesman said.
Meanwhile, Florida awaits his decision.
