On Wed, 2005-03-30 at 22:59, Daniel Carrera wrote:
> Hi all,
> 
> Is there someone here who knows about economics and can explain something to 
> me? 
> I'm reading this article on Wikipedia, about the Euro:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro

> I think I sort of understand that having everyone's reserves in US dollars 
> would 
> make he US dollar artificially expensive. It'd create artificial demand. Is 
> that 
> about right?

Yes, if somethng is in demand the value rises even if the Emperor has no
clothes and its peceived rather than real value. If confidence suddenly
falls there can be a crash - recent stock market crash after the .com
bubble burst is an example.

> What I don't understand is in which way foreign markets are supposed to be 
> subsidising the US budget deficit. Nor do I understand what this has this has 
> to 
> do with the price of the dollar or the trade deficit.

If there is investment in the US because people believe that some time
in the future the economy will grow giving good return on investment
that investment can be used to bridge any gap between revenue and
spending. The other way to get investment into a country is to put up
interest rates so people put their money into that country rather than
another for a higher rate of return. Here in the UK interest rates are
high and tend to be because finance is a key part of the UK economy.
Raising interest rates takes money out of the pockets of consumers -
their credit card bills mortgages etc go up with no tangible benefit to
them but this is then money they can't spend on consumer goods. This
tends to inhibit growth and act in a deflationary way. So putting up
interest rates is a classic way of reducing inflation. Also if interest
rates are high, people tend to take money out of stocks and shares and
put them into bank accounts.The dynamic equilibrium between interest
rates, inflation, currency values and stock exchange prices is
complicated. The sort of things that mathematics PhD people do to build
models to try and predict the effects of different scenarios ;-)

There was a famous day called Black Wednesday here in the UK when
financier George Soros speculatively bought lots of currency. It caused
interest rates to go up to 15% here momentarily and the Chancellor of
the exchequor to lose his job. I believe Soros made billions and is now
busy giving it out to projects in Eastern Europe and Africa. Sort of
Robin Hood on a big scale :-)

-- 
Ian Lynch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
ZMS Ltd

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