---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Apr 19, 2012 at 12:42 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Alex De Waal - Currently, It's War for North and South Sudan To: Group <[email protected]>
South Sudan: Alex De Waal - Currently, It's War for North and South Sudan BY MAGNUS TAYLOR, 18 APRIL 2012 allAfrica.com Sudan has been described as 'Africa in microcosm.' Formerly a single country, political conflict between North and South spawned its ongoing civil war through the second half of the 20th century which eventually culminated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, and the secession of South Sudan in 2011. >From being a vast, diverse country at war with itself, Sudan has split in to 2 antagonistic states which have faced huge challenges in dividing oil reserves and populations which straddle the contested border region. Alex de Waal's African Arguments Online lecture to the Royal African Society on 17th April 2012 began with the statement that "it all looked so good just over a year ago." Pre-secession, North Sudan's President Omar el-Beshir had visited South Sudan's capital Juba and promised to recognise the new state if this was, 'the price of peace.' Initially this promise was kept, including respect for the territorial integrity of the new state. Currently, with fighting in the border areas - particularly in and around the North Sudanese regions of South Kordofan and Blue Nile - and recent Southern incursions in to the oil producing Heglig region, where did it all go wrong? Alex de Waal is a leading authority on Sudan. As well as being joint editor of this site, he is Director of the World Peace Foundation and has served for several years as an adviser to the African Union's High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan. His explanation is complex. The roots of the current crisis stem from several factors: - The respective leaderships of North and South Sudan are currently unable to command sufficiently, particularly with reference to their armed forces, in order to develop any coherent strategy. - Issues deferred during the CPA remain unresolved - these included the status of ex-SPLA soldiers in South Kordofan and Blue Nile States. - Border delineation remains controversial, a difficulty that is associated with differences between legalistic (cartographic) and traditional understanding of claims to land. - Potential economic crisis in the North due to oil revenue losses. Of the estimated 150 - 200,000 soldiers who fought for the SPLA during the civil war, approximately 40,000 came from the North Sudanese states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile. These men fought for their own agenda related to the transformation of the political environment within the whole of Sudan, rather than the parallel aim of independence for the South. The CPA did not fully resolve the identity of the SPLA when such a significant proportion of the force, including many of its most organised and capable fighters, came from what is now North Sudan. MAny inhabitants of South Kordofan and Blue Nile (including SPLA members) worried that following secession of the South they would become a "small, desperate and vulnerable population in the North." During negotiations for post-secession Sudan, advisors (including de Waal) lobbied for stronger security provisions to be made for the populations of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states - one unit of the SPLA would be posted in each of the 2 states. However, what resulted was an agreement where all SPLA troops would be withdrawn after independence. de Waal called this "a recipe for war" as "these people would not be prepared to go." A suggested integration of former SPLA troops into the Sudan army was also rejected. The withdrawal of the SPLA was to have taken place on 1st June 2012. The fighting started in South Kordofan on 6th June. A further agreement reached through negotiation in Addis Ababa, involving the deployment of Ethiopian troops, was repudiated by the North Sudan leadership. de Waal states that this was Beshir's biggest mistake thus far. As the conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile intensified, South Sudan was compelled to become involved due to its essential solidarity with the SPLA soldiers in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. The Border As part of the CPA it was agreed that the North-South border would be delineated according to its position at independence in 1956. Whilst de Waal described the border committee as being "remarkably dysfunctional," it eventually came up with a report and proposed border delineation. This included 4 disputed areas: Kafia Kingi, Abyei, Kaka and Jodha. Crucially, related to events in the past weeks, Heglig - a region in to which SPLA troops have recently moved - was not in dispute. The 1956 border clearly shows Heglig to be within North Sudan, there is however an historic claim for the region. In addition, Heglig is significant because it is the main oil producing area in North Sudan. In response to the South Sudanese occupation of Heglig, the UN Security Council has said that this action has "gone beyond self defence." As this statement suggests, the South's territorial claim for Heglig is reducing international sympathy for its current situation. As de Waal stated, occupation of an area of another state "is not considered good international practise." He predicts that with the US taking on the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for April 2012 it is likely to take fewer pro-South positions. In recent weeks, the SPLA has also been getting the better of the fighting. Whilst the conflict has largely been 'conventional' in nature - fought through bombing, tanks and regular troops - the fear is that this may develop in to a militia war, and in Sudan's conflicts (notably in Darfur) militia have generally committed the worst crimes. Economic Factors Pre-secession oil revenues for North Sudan constituted 55 percent of its national budget. North Sudan has experienced a 40 percent drop in oil revenues since secession, a decrease in budget which would require mitigation either by austerity, international assistance or transitional financial assistance from the South. None of these 3 has taken place. In December, as a result of the dire economic situation in the North, the Khartoum government started taking oil that was rightly an asset of the South. This facilitated the South's oil shutdown - de Waal states that the South "didn't really do their sums" with regard to this decision. At some point, in the near future, the South Sudanese government will simply run out of money. If the government has no money then quite rapidly the South may become ungovernable. Solutions De Waal detailed a number of changes that would need to occur in order to return the 2 sides to peace. These include the unconditional withdrawal of South Sudanese troops from Heglig, an end to aerial bombardment, an end to support from both sides for armed proxies operating internally in the other's conflicts, an international monitoring force to be deployed on the border (Ethiopian troops would be deployable within a week,) the settling of the Abyei issue and an agreement on oil. Magnus Taylor is Managing Editor of African Arguments Online. http://allafrica.com/stories/201204181305.html END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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