Sudan, South Sudan Armies Gearing Up for a Bigger Fight Along Their Long Border?

Posted by Amanda Hsiao on Apr 18, 2012

JUBA, South Sudan – Since the re-taking of the disputed area of Heglig
by the South Sudan army last Monday, a move that has dramatically
escalated hostilities between Sudan and South Sudan, the military
situation has been marked by flare-ups along the North-South border
and constant bombings of South Sudan by Sudan. Sudan first lost
control of the strategic oil site in late March, when South Sudan
forces took control of the region—in what southern officials said was
a defensive move—and withdrew. The South once again described return
to Heglig last week as a self-defensive move. In both instances, both
sides have blamed the other for instigating the violence. Now the
expectation is that a large counter-offensive by Sudan into Heglig
could begin at any moment.

There are worrying indications that the front line may expand to
beyond the immediate Heglig-Unity region where fighting and bombing
have thus far been concentrated. According to South Sudan’s
spokesperson, South Sudan and Sudan forces clashed Monday on the
western side of the North-South border, when Sudan forces attempted to
enter Western Bahr El Ghazal. Skirmishes were reported toward the
eastern side of the border, in Upper Nile state on Sunday, between
South Sudan forces and militias suspected of receiving support from
Khartoum. The Sudan government reported today new clashes on the
western side of the North-South border.

Bombings by Sudan continued throughout the weekend, likely aimed at
destroying a number of strategic bridges necessary for southern
reinforcements.

Alarmingly, southern officials also reported that a Sudan Armed Forces
Antonov flew over the capital of South Sudan, Juba, around 10 p.m. on
Friday. Juba residents reported hearing a plane, but no other
corroborations are possible. Khartoum denied the allegation.

In the flashpoint region of Abyei, tensions ran high following the
taking of Heglig by the South. President Kiir suggested that should
northern forces remain in the Abyei area—in contravention of an
agreement signed last year—southern forces may also return to the
disputed area. Last Friday, internationals on the ground confirmed
that several hundred SPLA soldiers were seen inside Abyei’s borders.
According to Enough sources on the ground, forces have begun to
withdraw as a result of negotiations between the U.N. peacekeeping
mission there and southern officials.

In Juba, the seizure of Heglig, an area key to Sudan’s economy,
appears to be a popular decision. Members of the South Sudanese
parliament responded enthusiastically with applause and chants of
“SPLA Oye!” in response to President Salva Kiir’s announcement last
Thursday that the army would not withdraw from the area until a
“mechanism” is put into place to ensure that the strategic site would
not be used to launch future attacks into the South by the North. The
South has suggested deploying a U.N. peacekeeping force into the
disputed area. The following day, several hundred South Sudanese took
to the streets, waving signs and chanting, in support of the
president’s decision.

With momentum in South Sudan in favor of the government’s bold
decision, international calls for an unconditional withdrawal may be a
difficult political move for the Juba leadership to make.

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