Prospect for regime change in Khartoum is finally materializing
By Steve Paterno June 25, 2012 — It is the beginning to an end against the thuggish regime in Khartoum. Streets protest against the regime has just entered its seventh day with an increase intensity and it is gaining momentum very fast and significantly. With failing economy, a harsh austerity measures carried out by the government finally triggered mass street protests. The protest was first started by the students of University of Khartoum, and suddenly spread throughout other campuses across the country, and then it is now supported by average citizens as well as political parties. As expected, the regime met the protesters with measured brutality and massive arrests. However, though, the regime seems to be losing the fight. The brutal regime has dug itself deep into the hole that it can never gets out of it. With the separation of South Sudan, the country is deprived of a junk of its revenue, at least more than 70% from the oil production alone. Unfortunately, members of the regime miscalculated its budget, thinking that it will still exploit South Sudanese resource to cover for its budget shortfall. This is despite the fact that South Sudan is an already independent state. When South Sudan decided to shut down its oil production, because Khartoum is stealing the oil, Sudanese economic nose dive. The regime that builds its success on false premises and lies could not any more hide its economic woes. Commodity prices immediately shot above the roof, with inflation running too high and the Sudanese pound diminishes in value. The government had to contend with the dire situation, hence, instituted a harsh austerity measures, which triggers the riot. Even more worrying is that the austerity measures encouraged by the government is not going to resolve the problems, given the reality that the government can simply not meets its budgetary obligations, because of the gross mismanagement, corruption and a reeling economy. Sudanese economic crisis is just one of the artfully created endemics by the thuggish regime in Khartoum. To top it all off, the regime is headed by an internationally indicted criminal by the name Omar al-Bashir. Some of the top members of the regime are themselves criminals, waiting to be arrested. For more than two decades, this regime is killing its citizens. They are restricting basic freedom. The press is silent. All political parties are frozen. And yet, they think they deserve to be in power. Therefore, the current Sudanese economic crisis is a cascading event, built over along period of time that is leading to the demise of National Congress Party (NCP). The students are courageous enough to be the first to brave the streets and provide a real challenge in toppling the regime. The students courageous efforts provide the sense of spring is finally here; the Arab Spring that is, which is sweeping across the Middle East and is showing the ouster of dictators and oligarchy throughout Arab World. This protest against a dictatorial regime in Khartoum has the greatest potential to succeed this time around. Sudan has a long established history of mass civil demonstrations in ousting military dictators. In October of 1964, students from University of Khartoum, the alma mater, of the current originators of this upraising, decided that the dictatorial military regime of General Ibrahim Abboud must go. Massive demonstrations were organized in Khartoum, which eventually gained momentum. The top military brass ended up advising their boss, General Ibrahim Abboud to step down, given the demands of the people on the streets. General Abboud cried out loud that the only condition he would accept for his resignation is for his son to go study in United Kingdom, and the dictator then disappeared into obscurity and then the people took back their government. Once again in mid 1980s, when another military dictator by the name Gafaar Nimeri rose into power, the people once again poured on the streets, demanding for take down of the dictator. This time around, similar conditions are set in place, which show that the time is ripe for the dictatorial regime to go. In effect, history is reaping itself. The regime is currently relying on the dreaded National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) and brutal police forces to crack down on the street protesters. Such limited support in favor of the regime may not last for long. There are already signs of discontent between the NISS and police forces in the way the security agents are handling the detentions of the Sudanese citizens. No doubt, some elements within police are sympathizing with plight of protesters. Besides, the police in most cases would like to ensure that the laws are followed when dealing with citizens, unlike the security apparatus, which carried things against the citizens in secrecy and without due process of the law. Even more encouraging for the protesters, the demoralized military are not stepping in against the protesters. Perhaps, by the time the military is going to step in, they will require for the regime to be dismantled as demanded by the people or worst yet, the military will join the people in ending the regime by violent means. So, this is a dejavu for the military dictator. The days for the regime are numbered. Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain Catholic Priest Turned Rebel. He can be reached at [email protected] The views expressed in the 'Comment and Analysis' section are solely the opinions of the writers. 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