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------Original message------ From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> To: "Group" <[email protected]> Date: Tuesday, March 5, 2013 8:40:33 AM GMT-0500 Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Sudan: Preventing the Next Mali No doubt the sub-title "Why Washington can’t just sit by and let another full-fledged war break out in Sudan" was written by the sub-editors, not the author, but it is misleading. Full-fledged war has already broken out in three areas of Sudan: Darfur, the Nuba Mountains (South Kordofan) and Blue Nile. John BEGIN 1. Preventing the Next Mali Why Washington can’t just sit by and let another full-fledged war break out in Sudan. BY JOHN PRENDERGAST | MARCH 4, 2013 | Foreign Policy NUBA MOUNTAINS, Sudan — The heat was stifling and the climb was steep, but Adam insisted that he show us the place where his life was forever altered. In was mid-January, and we were deep in the Nuba Mountains, in territory controlled by the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army-North. Only two short weeks before, Adam's family heard the familiar hum of a government Antonov bomber. They had time to scurry to two makeshift bomb shelters before nine bombs were released from the plane's cargo hold. Those who hid in the dugout next to an old tree escaped unscathed. Those who sought sanctuary in a rocky depression in the side of the mountain, however, met a different fate. One of the bombs scored a nearly direct hit; Adam lost his mother, wife, and daughter all at once. The assault on the people of the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile, two regions just north of the border with South Sudan, bears a deadly resemblance to the tactics the Sudanese government has used in Darfur and South Sudan. Aerial bombing terrorizes the population and prevents it from farming, while humanitarian groups are prevented from delivering aid. Starvation is the objective. Draining the water to catch the fish is one of the oldest counterinsurgency strategies known to man. Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his regime have been in power since his military coup in 1989, and since that time he has been in perpetual war with Sudan's periphery: the south (which is now independent), Darfur, the border states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, the contested area of Abyei, and the east have all taken up arms at one time or another during this period. War resumed in South Kordofan in June 2011 and in Blue Nile in September 2011 after the regime in Khartoum, the capital, conducted deeply flawed elections and revoked the terms of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement -- which had ended the north-south war and provided for a level of autonomous government for the two restive regions. Speaking of Bashir, Adam asked us, "A man who kills women and children with planes, is this a man who wants peace?" Adam's got a point. Despite a raft of agreements with internal opponents and neighboring South Sudan, the Khartoum government is not evincing any willingness to implement any of them, including a basic humanitarian access agreement for the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. The policy of the United States and other internationals has understandably been to encourage Sudanese officials to implement existing deals and sign new ones, principally an African Union-led peace initiative chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. As the death tolls and reneged promises mount, however, it is becoming clear that no peace is possible without profound political change in Khartoum. Given the lack of progress toward peace, attitudes are hardening in rebel zones throughout Sudan, increasing the potential for the disintegration of the Sudanese state. "If things don't change," proclaimed Amir, a Nuba Mountains' community leader we met, "then we want these 99 mountains to become our own country like South Sudan." The longer the interlocking civil wars rage, the harder it will become to put this secessionist genie back in the bottle. South Sudan, the world's newest country, has disturbingly begun to fall into traps and habits that could lead to similarly negative outcomes. The intersecting trends of corruption, abuse of power by security structures, and closing political space create cause for greater concern and engagement. A core long-term U.S. interest in this region should be to ensure against the inadvertent creation in Sudan of another Mali or Somalia -- state collapse, Balkanization, and radicalism. Sudan's government has a history of cooperation with terrorist groups, and ties with Iran seem to be deepening again. Sudan's periphery has been disintegrating over time, and that trend will only accelerate. The root driver of this deepening crisis is unaccountable, unrepresentative, authoritative governance. The international response isn't working, so new ideas and approaches are urgently needed. Great sacrifices are being made by Sudanese pro-democracy, peace, and human rights advocates. Rebel groups are clamoring for a genuinely comprehensive peace process. The United States and other countries have for years encouraged these movements to come together and spell out the terms of what a future democratic system could look like. At the beginning of this year, a broad array of groups answered the challenge and signed a painstakingly negotiated "New Dawn Charter," which put meat on the bones of what an inclusive Sudanese future could look like. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has a long, deep history working on Sudanese issues, as does President Barack Obama. They have the opportunity to reimagine policy based on evolving realities, which requires finally dealing directly with the core issues of governance in Sudan and South Sudan. In Sudan, a small clique of Islamists headed by Bashir has held absolute power for nearly 24 years. Until that concentration of power is addressed, peripheral regions will continue to rebel, with massive humanitarian consequences, potential further state disintegration, and likely further radicalization. South Sudan, meanwhile, is less than two years old, but corruption and concerns over concentration of authority in the presidency require real governance reform as a means of preventing future conflict within that country. Both governments will have to deal more seriously with their economic and regional tensions and stop demonizing each other, or a new war between Sudan and South Sudan could be possible. Washington can build greater leverage in support of peace between and within the Sudans by widening and deepening high-level engagement and support for effective democracy, peace, and human rights advocates in both countries. In Sudan, in particular, catalytic foreign assistance for civil society and service delivery should be provided to the groups involved in the New Dawn Charter as they ascertain how best to achieve a nonviolent political transition. As we prepared to depart his burned-out village, Adam summed up the resolve of the people of the Nuba Mountains and other areas rebelling against the government: "We're ready to fight for change until all of us are dead." The Save Darfur movement launched nearly a decade ago was driven by outsiders. Today's Save Sudan movement is led by Sudanese, but the United States should be there to help them bring about their own change. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/04/preventing_the_next_mali_sudan?wp_login_redirect=0 END1 2. Sudan: JEM Denies Sudan Army's Claims of Battle in North Kordofan 4 MARCH 2013 Radio Dabanga Khartoum — The spokesman of the Sudanese army announced his forces inflicted severe losses in clashes with a rebel group in North Kordofan, who entered the country via South Sudan, over the weekend. However, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) claims having seized the town where the alleged battle took place. Colonel al-Sawarmi Khalid Sa'ad stated the rebels were ambushed at the Wad Bahr village in Wad Banda locality in North Kordofan after being followed since they entered the country. He added the group fled to North Darfur after suffering heavy losses in terms of lives and equipments. The governor of North Kordofan Muatassim Mirghani supported the army's claims and added the state worked in close coordination with the military. JEM declared it clashed with the army near Wad Banda, noting the "enemies" were on their way to enforce security in preparation to President Omar al-Bashir's visit to Al-Tiwaisha in North Darfur this week. "Our army summarily defeated the enemy force killing 100 soldiers and seizing 25 Land Cruisers, two Ural trucks, two commander tanks and score of weapons," the movement's military spokesman Badawi Mosa Al-Sakin was quoted as saying to Radio Dabanga. He said dozens of army officers arrived in Umm Kedada on late Saturday with many injured soldiers, two of whom died and were buried later that night. President Omar al-Bashir is scheduled to travel to El-Fasher, Atina and Al-Tiwaisha next Wednesday and Thursday, 6 and 7 March. http://allafrica.com/stories/201303050085.html END2 3. Sudan: Clashes Between Rebels and Army Erupt in Central Sudan 3 MARCH 2013 Tunis Afrique Presse Khartoum — Fighting has broken out between government forces and rebels in central Sudan, both sides said on Sunday, in a possible escalation of violence that has hitherto been concentrated closer to the African country's borders. Rebels of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) from the western region of Darfur said they had launched an attack on the army in North Kordofan state. JEM said it had seized the western area of Wad Bahr in North Kordofan from government forces on Saturday. "We beat the army and seized many weapons," JEM spokesman Gibril Adam said. Authorities confirmed the fighting but said the army and security forces had repelled the rebels who had been trying to "steal from citizens", according to the state-linked Sudanese Media Center (SMC). "They suffered heavy losses," North Kordofan's governor Muattasim Mirghani told SMC, adding that the army had destroyed 12 rebels vehicles. http://allafrica.com/stories/201303040653.html?aa_source=slideout END3 4. Fighting breaks out between Sudan army and SRF rebels in N. Kordofan March 3, 2013 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese army on Sunday announced that its troops clashed this weekend with rebels from the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) in the state of North Kordofan. The army’s spokesperson Colonel al-Sawarmi Khalid Sa’ad said in statements carried by state media that a group of SRF "outlaws" crossed the borders from South Sudan and were tracked by the Sudanese military. Col, Sa’ad said that when the rebels passed by Wad Bahr village in Wad Banda locality in North Kordofan, the army engaged them. He claimed that SRF suffered heavy losses in terms of lives and equipment, adding that the army continued chasing their fighters who fled into North Darfur. The governor of North Darfur, Muatassim Mirghani, corroborated the army’s account stressing that his state was working in close coordination with the army. But the Darfur-born Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) gave a different version claiming that they seized the Wad Bahr village. "We beat the army and seized many weapons," JEM spokesman Gibril Adam told Reuters. It is to be noted that Wad Banda is where JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim was killed by the Sudanese army under mysterious circumstances in late 2011. Fighting between the rebels and the army has been so far mainly limited to Darfur as well as South Kordofan and Blue Nile states bordering South Sudan, which seceded from Sudan in 2011. JEM is member of the SRF, which also includes the Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) fighting the army in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article45716 END4 5. Controversial S. Kordofan governor may lead negotiations with SPLM-N: reports March 2, 2013 (KHARTOUM) – The governor of South Kordofan, Ahmed Haroun, may head Sudan’s delegation to the upcoming negotiations with rebels from Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N), according to local media. The African Union (AU) mediation team led by former South African president Thabo Mbeki invited Khartoum and SPLM-N to sit down in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa for talks in mid-March. The Sudanese government has been strongly resistant to any negotiations with the SPLM-N for fear of reinventing a deal similar to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which incorporated a power and wealth-sharing protocol. But the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution issued in May 2012 ordered Sudan and the SPLM-N to cooperate in order to end the conflict in the two regions. Under the resolution, the two parties are supposed to negotiate on the basis of the 28 June 2011 agreement they signed in Addis Ababa before it was scrapped by Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir. The SPLM-N have been battling the Sudanese government since 2011 in the border states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile ,which has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. The United Nations in 2011 said that war crimes may have been committed in South Kordofan following the outbreak of the conflict with SPLM-N. In 2007, Haroun became the first Sudanese official to be charged by International Criminal Court (ICC) in connection with war crimes allegedly committed in Sudan’s western region of Darfur. At the time he held the position of state minister for humanitarian affairs though the crimes he was indicted on were committed while he was the state minister for interior. The charges against him include 51 counts of murder, mass rape and torture. Sudan has refused to hand him or any other citizen to the Hague-based court. Last year Haroun was caught in tape that was aired by Qatar-based Al-Jazeera TV showing him instructing troops in South Kordofan not take any prisoners in the course of their fighting with rebels. His remarks drew criticism by the UN and the European Union. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article45708 END5 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation1. -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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