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------Original message------ From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> To: "Group" <[email protected]> Date: Thursday, June 13, 2013 5:10:52 PM GMT+0300 Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Egypt-Ethiopia: water war? 1. Egypt/Ethiopia: There Will Be No Water War In The Nile Basin Because No One Can Afford It – By Seifulaziz Milas June 10, 2013 African Arguments The comedy started last Monday when the Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi invited leading politicians to discuss the report of a tri-partite Egypt-Ethiopia-Sudan commission. The commission had recently conducted a one year study on Ethiopia’s plan to build a hydropower dam on the Blue Nile; the source of most of the water reaching Egypt and Sudan. Some three days earlier the commission had reported that the hydropower dam would not significantly reduce the flow of water to the downstream countries. This coincided with a report that Ethiopia had diverted the flow of the Blue Nile (by some five hundred meters from its normal channel) as part of the process of construction of its $4.2bn Grand Renaissance hydropower dam, now about 20 percent complete. This provided the occasion for the politicians to engage in one of their favorite pastimes: repeating time-worn myths about the river Nile, their ownership of it and their readiness to fight over control of its waters. An aide to President Morsi later apologised for failing to inform the politicians that they were live on air, which allowed viewers to watch them discuss plans to sabotage the dam and undertake a variety of other hostile acts against Ethiopia. The suggestions included aiding rebels inside Ethiopia and destroying the dam itself. Ethiopian officials have long accused Egypt of backing anti-government rebels in Ethiopia. Getachew Reda, a spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn, was quoted on Tuesday as saying that Egyptian leaders had unsuccessfully tried to destabilize Ethiopia in the past. Morsi did not directly react to this suggestion, but concluded by saying that Egypt respected Ethiopia and its people and would not engage in any aggressive acts against it. However, on Wednesday a senior Egyptian official was quoted as saying that Egypt will demand that Ethiopia stop building the Blue Nile dam. Getachew Reda responded with the following statement: “There are on the one hand people who still think that they can turn back the clock on Ethiopia’s development endeavors including of course the construction of the Renaissance Dam…Second you have people like President Mohammed Morsi, who according to the reports, said to have stressed said that there is no point in trying to force Ethiopians, but the best solution would be to engage to Ethiopians.” Meanwhile, Ethiopia has summoned the Egyptian Ambassador to explain the hostile remarks and the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that it is demanding an official explanation. Three days earlier the report of an independent panel of experts from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan had concluded that the hydropower dam would not significantly reduce the flow of water reaching Sudan and Egypt, both of which are highly dependent on the Nile waters. Hydropower dams do not consume water – the water merely has to pass through the dam’s turbines and come out the downstream side to produce hydroelectricity. However, for decades Egypt has spent considerable effort propagating various myths about the Nile, including the myth of Egyptian ownership of the Nile waters based on “international law” and the attendant myth that Egypt would respond militarily against any upstream country that dares to interfere without Egypt’s permission. Egypt justifies its claims to ownership of the Nile waters by reference to two treaties, neither of which is relevant to Ethiopia (the source of the Nile waters). The first is the 1929 treaty between Britain, which controlled Egypt at the time (and needed Egyptian cotton as raw material for its textile industry), and the British colonial governments in the upper Nile basin colonies of Sudan, Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika. The 1929 treaty prohibited the upstream British colonies in the Nile Basin from building water infrastructure on the Nile without Egypt’s permission. This, of course, was not relevant to Ethiopia (which was never a British colony); though it was the source of 86 percent of the Nile water reaching Egypt. The second treaty was a 1959 bilateral agreement between Egypt and Sudan to divide the Nile waters between the two of them at the rate of 75 percent for Egypt and 25 percent for Sudan. Of course they had every right to divide such water as entered their territory, but this could not affect Ethiopia, which was not a party to their bilateral agreement. This agreement was made redundant in 2010 when Ethiopia and the other upstream states signed the Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA), aimed at ensuring the equitable access of all Nile basin states to use of the Nile waters. The Renaissance Dam has been under construction for the past two years in the Blue Nile Gorge near the border with Sudan in an area unsuitable for irrigation projects, as any arable land would be at a much higher altitude than the river. The dam is expected to produce around 6000 megawatts of electricity, making it Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant. Egypt claims dependency on the Nile waters as the basis for its development requirements, and the source of 97 percent of its water supply. It proclaims the Nile as a strategic priority and its foreign policy focuses on the need to control the Nile flow and maintain the status quo regarding regional patterns of water distribution. From its strategic perspective Egypt has always been concerned that control of the Nile flow by others could threaten its own security. But Egypt has consistently tended to over-estimate its own capacities and needs, and to seriously under-rate those of the countries and peoples to the south. Had it been otherwise, it might have made a more rational assessment of the resources and potential of the Nile Basin and its diverse peoples and interests. This might well have led it to understand that its own long-term interests might lie in seeking cooperation and consensus, rather than an ultimately unsustainable focus on hegemony and confrontation. Nevertheless, it opted for hegemony that it lacked the capacity to sustain, and threats of confrontation that could only run counter to its unrecognised, but no less vital, need for upstream cooperation. For more than three decades Egypt’s political leaders have claimed ‘historic rights’ to control of the Nile waters, punctuated by threats of war against any upstream country that might attempt to build dams or water infrastructure on the river. This became a prominent feature of Egypt’s Nile policy after the construction of the Aswan High Dam by the Soviet Union. The late President Anwar Sadat realigned his country with the West, made peace with Israel and announced that the only thing that could bring Egypt into war again would be if any country threatened Egypt’s control of the Nile waters. This announcement was aimed less directly at the upper Nile basin states than at the World Bank and other International Financial Institutions (IFIs). Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel opened Cairo’s way to aid agreements with the United States and to Egyptian access to strategic positions in the World Bank and other IFIs which they could influence against lending for water infrastructure in upstream states without the agreement of downstream states. Until recently, Egypt was able to derive considerable comfort from the knowledge that after decades of unrest, disasters and economic collapse, the upper basin countries had little hope of financing any significant water infrastructure on their own. To build it, they would need loans from the International Financial Institutions (IFIs), which were unlikely to be available without Egypt’s agreement, especially in view of propaganda that such loans might possibly lead to war. Now however, there are many other sources of funding, like China. The way forward is increasingly clear. There will be no water war in the Nile Basin, because no one can afford it, least of all those who talk most about it. For Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, rural futures may be limited by constraints of land and water and rapid population increase. All three will need to focus on rapid urbanization to address these constraints, and on industrialization and urban job creation to sustain it. To make this possible, all need to develop their sustainable energy resources, and cooperate to use them as effectively as possible. Seifulaziz Milas is author of Sharing the Nile: Egypt, Ethiopia and the Geo-Politics of Water. http://africanarguments.org/2013/06/10/egyptethiopia-there-will-be-no-water-war-in-the-nile-basin-because-no-one-can-afford-it-by-seifulaziz-milas/ END1 2. Egyptian warning over Ethiopia Nile dam BBC 10 June 2013 Last updated at 23:12 Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi has said "all options are open" to deal with any threat to his country's water supply posed by an Ethiopian dam. Mr Morsi said he was not "calling for war", but that he would not allow Egypt's water supply to be endangered. Egypt was apparently caught by surprise when Ethiopia started diverting the Blue Nile last month, amid works to construct a hydroelectric dam. The river is a tributary of the Nile, on which Egypt is heavily dependent. The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a $4.7bn (£3.1bn) project that Ethiopia says will eventually provide 6,000 megawatts of power. It says the Blue Nile will be slightly diverted but will then be able to follow its natural course. "Egypt's water security cannot be violated at all," Mr Morsi said on Monday. "As president of the state, I confirm to you that all options are open." "If Egypt is the Nile's gift, then the Nile is a gift to Egypt,'' he said, quoting popular sayings about the river in an emotive televised speech. "The lives of the Egyptians are connected around it... as one great people. If it diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative." Analysts say Mr Morsi could be using the issue to distract attention from severe domestic political and economic challenges. Egypt is particularly dependant on water supply from the Nile, and its growing population has been placing that supply under increasing strain. Sudan is also reliant on Nile waters. Egypt cites a colonial era ruling to claim a right to the majority of the Nile's waters for itself and Sudan, but Ethiopia says the ruling is outdated. Mr Morsi said Egypt had no objection to development projects on Nile basin states, "but on condition that those projects do not affect or damage Egypt's legal and historical rights". Last week, Egyptian politicians were inadvertently heard on live TV proposing military action over the dam. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22850124 END2 3. Egypt escalates war of words over Ethiopia’s Nile dam project June 11, 2013 (ADDIS ABABA) - Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia heightened on Monday after Cairo threaten Addis Ababa in connection with its first dam project along the Blue Nile. Egypt, which has long been opposing the construction of the $4.8 billion dam, said it will not tolerate any attempt by the horn of Africa’s nation that diminishes its water share. Addressing to Egyptians on a live televised speech, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi warned that his country is ready to confront any threat that would endanger the country’s water security. "Egypt’s water security cannot be violated at all," said Morsi. "As president of the state, I confirm to you that all options are open." The Egyptian president however said that he is not calling for war but warned that he would not allow any type of threats against water security. President Morsi’s comments come after Egyptian politicians this week intensified pressure on him for doing not doing enough to stop the Grand Renaissance Ethiopian Dam (GERD). Although Ethiopia is the source of 85 percent of the Nile’s water, a colonial-era treaty grants Egypt the use of over 70 percent of it, supplying the North African nation with 55 billion cubic meters of water per year. The new dam on the Blue Nile river where Ethiopia is building Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant is considered by some Egypt politicians to be a security risk considering how much the largely desert nation relies on the Nile’s water. Experts estimate that Egypt could lose up to 27% of its share of the Nile’s water when Ethiopia fills the GERD, which, when complete will be the Africa’s biggest reservoir with a capacity of 63 billion cubic meters. Egypt has in the past threatened to go to war against any country that violates to its historic rights over the Nile river. Egypt argues that other countries along the Nile have alternative water sources, but the Nile is the only water source available to Egypt and its historic water rights should be respected. “If it loses one drop, our blood is the alternative," president Morsi said. "The lives of the Egyptians are connected around it as one great people. If it diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative." REACTIONS IN ETHIOPIA Ethiopia’s foreign ministry responded on Tuesday, saying that the construction of Nile dam will not be stopped “even for a second” despite what Egyptian politicians say. Addis Ababa’s foreign ministry spokesperson Dina Mufuti said the sabotage proposals suggested by some Egyptian politicians were unacceptable. However he welcomed the remarks by Sudan’s information minister, Ahmed Bilal Osman, in support of the dam project. Osman said the ten-member international panel, which has been studying the impacts of the dam on Sudan and Egypt in its final report last week, had dispelled all concerns raised about the dam. The Sudanese spokesperson said that his country will send experts and technicians to help in the construction of the dam. Ethiopians were caught by surprise last week when Egyptian politicians last week were aired live discussing sabotage plans to stop the Nile dam, which currently is 21% completed. Politicians suggested that President Morsi take military action or support Ethiopian rebels to destroy the Dam, outraging many Ethiopians. “We are ready for an armed confrontation to any attacks by Egypt” Mesfin Nega, a 32 year old Ethiopian told Sudan Tribune. “Words of war are not the smartest ways to deal with Ethiopia” he said. “Egypt better stop making provocative remarks. It should refer back and learn in to how Ethiopia defeated the Italian invaders.” Speaking to state television, Egyptian Foreign Minister, Mohamed Kamel Amr, said "No Nile - no Egypt." He declined to detail possible actions Cairo would take in connection with Ethiopia dam but said "We have a plan for action, which will start soon. We will talk to Ethiopia and we’ll see what comes of it.” The Egyptian foreign minister is expected Addis Ababa within the coming few days to discuss with Ethiopian officials over the controversial massive dam project. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article46909 END3 4. Ethiopia discards Egypt threats over Nile dam Foreign ministry says it is not intimidated by Egypt's "psychological warfare" and dam project will proceed. Last Modified: 12 Jun 2013 14:15 Al Jazeera Ethiopia has dismissed Egyptian talk of military action against a giant dam it is building on the Nile as "psychological warfare". Dina Mufti, Ethiopia's foreign ministry spokesman, said on Tuesday that his country was "not intimidated by Egypt's psychological warfare and won't halt the dam's construction, even for seconds." Responding to a speech a day earlier by Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi, in which he said Egypt did not want "war" but would keep "all options open" to avoid losing any water, Mufti said the project would not be distracted by their neighbours. Asked if Addis Ababa was looking at measures to defend the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam, Dina said: "No country operates without precautions, let alone Ethiopia, which has a track record of defending its independence from all forces of evil." Some politicians were caught on camera last week talking of air strikes or backing Ethiopian rebels after the start of major new work on the project took Cairo by surprise late last month. Egypt's foreign minister, who has said he will give up "not a single drop of water", is to visit Addis Ababa. Morsi hoped for a political solution with Ethiopia, a "friendly state", whose demands for economic development he said he understood. One bone of contention is a technical analysis of the impact of the $4.7bn dam being built by an Italian firm on the Blue Nile near the border with Sudan, which supports the plan. Divergent views Ethiopia says a joint report, still kept under wraps by both governments, supports its assurances it will do "no appreciable harm" to Sudan and Egypt downstream. It has no plan to use water for irrigation and says that once the reservoir is filled, all the river's water will be free to flow through its turbines. Morsi, however, said Egypt had carried out studies that showed "negative consequences". Less water would flow while the reservoir is filling. Once full, more water may evaporate. Egypt, whose 84 million people use almost all of the Nile's supply that reaches them to meet their needs, cites colonial-era treaties guaranteeing it the lion's share of the water. Ethiopia and other upstream neighbours say those claims are outdated. "Ethiopia cannot remain poor," Foreign Minister Tedros Adhanom said in a statement. "It must utilise its resources to lift its people out of poverty." Despite its lack of means, Ethiopia insists it can fund the project itself without help from international lenders wary of the diplomatic dispute. It has been aided by a $1bn loan from China to build power transmission lines. It says the project, on which work to divert the river temporarily began in May, is 21 percent complete. With a target generating capacity of 6,000 megawatts, it is part of a plan to make Ethiopia the biggest electricity exporter in Africa. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/06/20136128306931161.html END4 5. Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam ‘not yet a military one’ RT Published time: June 13, 2013 02:40 Edited time: June 13, 2013 03:27 Egypt’s armed forces are refraining from military threats over a River Nile dam dispute, with a spokesperson for the general staff declaring that it “is not a military issue at this stage,” following some heated exchanges between the two countries. Tensions have heightened over a giant dam on the Nile, termed the “Great Renaissance Dam” by Ethiopia. Egypt fears that the new hydroelectric plant will deplete its vital water resources. “It's too early to involve the army in this problem at the moment,” Ahmed Mohamed Ali told Reuters. Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi said earlier on Monday that he did not want war but would keep “all options open,” inciting a response from Ethiopia. The following day, Ethiopia's foreign ministry spokesman, Dina Mufti, dismissed Egypt’s “psychological warfare,” saying that the dam’s construction wouldn’t be halted “even for seconds.” Last week, some Egyptian politicians were recorded discussing potential air strikes or the possibility of offering support to Ethiopian rebels. Egypt’s foreign minister will travel to Ethiopia on Sunday to discuss the subject of the dam further, despite Ethiopia’s declaration that it would not be accepting any proposals to temporarily halt construction. The rights of priority to the Nile’s water supply are backed by colonial-era treaties, according to Egypt. The river provides the majority of the county’s 84 million residents with water. Ethiopia states that this attitude is outdated and that it cannot stay under-provided for. “It would be important to just have discussions that are open, that look at how we can have a win-win situation in a new context, not in the context of the colonial powers, but in the context of pan-Africanism and African renaissance,” the African Union's Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma stated in a press conference. http://rt.com/news/egypt-ethiopia-dam-dispute-598/ END5 6. Ethiopia rejects Egyptian protests over Nile dam Construction of Grand Renaissance dam to continue despite Eygptian concerns over impact on water supply and farming Patrick Kingsley in Cairo The Guardian, Tuesday 11 June 2013 13.27 EDT Ethiopia has refused to halt work on a controversial giant dam across the river Nile that Egypt fears will severely curb its water supply. The refusal came after the Egyptian president, Mohamed Morsi, promised to "defend each drop of Nile water with our blood" and other senior Egyptian politicians called for the dam's destruction. A spokesman for the Ethiopian prime minister said on Tuesday that Morsi's speech was irresponsible and that the project would proceed as planned. "Nothing is going to stop the Renaissance Dam. Not a threat will stop it," Getachew Reda said via telephone. "None of the concerns the Egyptian politicians are making are supported by science. Some of them border on what I would characterise as fortune-telling." Ethiopia hopes its Grand Renaissance dam – which will cost more than $4.3bn (£2.8bn) – will form Africa's largest hydropower plant. But Egyptian authorities have contested its construction after water experts claimed it would drastically lower the level of the Nile, which supplies almost all of Egypt's water, and could reduce cultivated farmland by up to 25%. In a speech to Islamist supporters on Monday night, Morsi called the Nile "God's gift to Egypt", and ambiguously veered between calls for peaceful dialogue, and veiled military threats. He said that while Egypt did "not want war … we do not accept threats to our security", and claimed that all possible responses to the dam remained open to Egypt – a line that has been interpreted as a threat of force. Last week, other senior Egyptian politicians were filmed discussing aggressive measures against their upstream neighbours – apparently unaware that their discussion was being broadcast live. Younis Makhyoun, the leader of Egypt's second largest political grouping, the ultraconservative Nour party, suggested to Morsi in a televised meeting that as a last resort Egyptian intelligence forces could destroy the dam. In response to the embarrassing gaffe, Ethiopia summoned the Egyptian ambassador in Addis Ababa to explain Egypt's stance. Morsi's own aggressive speech is aimed at a domestic audience as much as a foreign one, as he seeks to regain support ahead ofanticipated large protests against his presidency on 30 June. However insincere his military threats may be, they are nevertheless rooted in very real and widely held Egyptian fears about the dam's effect. Dr Bahaa Alkoussey, the former chairman of Egypt's National Water Research Centre, and a one-time senior official in the ministry of water resources and irrigation, claimed the Ethiopian plans copuld reduce waterflow to Egypt by more than 10bn kilolitres. "Then you might cross the Nile on the back of a camel," he said. "It's not a joke. This is a serious matter. The Egyptians already have a deficit in their water supply of about 10bn kilolitres. If you add just 1 kilolitre to that, it will be a disaster. Now it's already a problem. If you add more reductions, then you'll have a catastrophe." Alkoussey claimed the dam would make it harder for ferries to travel up the Nile, and would cause more pollution, harming fish farms. Most seriously, Alkoussey claimed the dam would devastate the farming community. "Every 1bn kilolitre reduction in natural flow to Egypt will cause 200,000 feddans [207,600 acres] of land to go out of production, and 500,000 farmers to be out of work – which will affect 2.5 million families," he said. Supporters of the dam have argued that Egypt could solve the crisis byusing its water more efficiently. But Hani Raslan, an expert on water politics at Cairo's government-affiliated Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, argued Egypt recycled much of its water. "Egypt is one of the most efficient countries with water consumption," he said. "Our supplies are 55bn cubic meters but we consume 70bn, which means we're recycling 15bn cubic meters." Ethiopia disputes the Egyptian experts' conclusions, claiming the dam has been largely exonerated by a recently completed, but as yet unreleased report written jointly by scientists from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. "Of course we are going to go ahead with the project, because we believe we are justified," Reda said. "Why would a self-respecting government spend $4.5bn simply to spite Egypt? It's beyond reason and it's beyond science. None of the concerns of the Egyptians [are] really something you can remotely associate yourself with." Additional reporting by Mowaffaq Safadi http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/11/ethiopia-rejects-egyptian-protests-nile-dam END6 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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