South Sudan  |  1 Feb 2014
[image: Deteriorated] [image: Risk Alert]

Govt 28 Jan announced treason charges against 7 opposition politicians
including former VP Riek Machar over alleged Dec coup attempt, raising
fears over fate of ceasefire agreed 23 Jan between govt and armed
opposition following IGAD mediation. Machar said treason charges were govt
attempt to derail peace process, called for President Kiir’s resignation.
23 Jan deal included agreement on release of political detainees held by
govt but failed to address underlying causes of conflict; 7 of 11 detainees
released to Kenya 29 Jan, other 4 to stand trial for treason; govt late Jan
said 4 detainees would be released in time to participate in peace talks
scheduled to begin 7 Feb. Armed opposition, govt late-Jan accused each
other of violating ceasefire; UN 27 Jan called for “robust” monitoring of
ceasefire. Ongoing clashes in Unity State forced thousands to flee
late-Jan. Fighting continued throughout IGAD mediation as govt forces
backed by Ugandan army retook major towns seized by armed opposition in Dec
including Bor 18 Jan, oil capital Bentiu 10 Jan and Malakal 20 Jan. AU 16
Jan affirmed commitment to begin investigation of rights abuses; UN ASG for
Human Rights Ivan Šimonovic visited 17 Jan, said both sides committed
atrocities. UN estimates 770,000 displaced in fighting since Dec 2013;
nearly 70,000 inside UN bases. UN USG for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos
visited late-Jan, highlighted dire humanitarian situation. David Yau Yau,
Murle rebel leader, signed peace agreement with govt late-Jan.

   - “Minister says S Sudan rebellion was
treason”<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/01/south-sudan-accuses-rebel-leader-treason-20141297213543926.html>,
   Al Jazeera, 29 Jan. 2014.

South Sudan  |  2 Jan 2014
[image: Deteriorated] [image: Risk Alert]

S Sudan on cusp of civil war after President Kiir accused former VP Riek
Machar of attempted coup 17 Dec; UN reported over 1,000 killed, 180,000
displaced by escalating violence. Clashes began in Juba, rapidly spread to
Unity and Jonglei states. Violence particularly heavy in Bor, Jonglei,
where AU 23 Dec said “war crimes” had been committed: Machar claimed
Ugandan jets backing Kiir’s forces bombed Bor 21 Dec; Bor has changed hands
3 times, currently under control of rebel forces “loyal” to Machar. Machar
19 Dec reportedly called on army to oust Kiir; rebel troops 22 Dec took
Bentiu, capital of oil-rich Unity state. Regional FMs 20 Dec, mediators 21
Dec met with President Kiir to discuss crisis; Rebecca Garang, John
Garang’s widow, met with Kiir 21 Dec but no breakthrough. Govt 27 Dec
pledged to observe immediate ceasefire; Machar agreed to talks mediated by
regional peace and security body Intergovernmental Authority on Development
(IGAD); talks began 2 Jan in Ethiopia. UNSC 24 Dec increased peacekeeping
force to 12,500, called for “immediate cessation of hostilites”, dialogue.
UN evacuated all non-essential staff; 2 UNMISS peacekeepers killed in
attack on Aboko UN base.

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