Uganda: The opposition’s missed opportunity in parliamentary and local elections
Posted on February 16, 2016 by Nicole Beardsworth
The ruling NRM makes sure that running as an opposition candidate is
as tough as possible. But rival parties have not done themselves any
favours either.
Campaign posters for the NRM primaries in Uganda. Credit: Maxence.
Campaign posters for the NRM primaries in Uganda. Credit: Maxence.
Despite predictions that the upcoming elections will be Uganda’s most
closely contested in a generation, few analysts expect anyone but
President Yoweri Museveni to come away with the top political prize.
Veteran opposition leader Kizza Besigye and former Prime Minister John
Patrick Amama Mbabazi will be hoping to cause an upset when voters go
to the polls on 18 February, but the expectation is that the incumbent
will soon be adding to his already 30 years in office.
[See: Uganda’s 2016 elections: same same but different?]
[See: Why it’s too early to rule out Kizza Besigye]
However, it is not just in the presidential poll that Museveni’s
rivals look set to be disappointed. It seems likely that in
parliamentary and local elections too, the opposition will find it
tough going and will struggle to erode the ruling National Resistance
Movement’s (NRM) huge dominance in parliament where it holds 259 of
the 385 seats.
A risky business
Campaigning against the NRM is always a gruelling and sometimes
dangerous affair given the ruling party’s enormous financial
advantages, control of state institutions, and tried and tested
tactics of threats and vote-buying. The country is awash with reports
of brown envelopes and new cars being traded for support, while rival
candidates face arrest and intimidation, as seen yesterday when
Besigye was briefly detained by police.
However, when it comes to local elections, these tactics are
compounded by further challenges. To begin with, the financial costs
of running are high and were made an astronomical 15 times higher
recently when parliament decided to increase the nomination fee for
parliamentary candidates from 200,000 Ugandan shillings ($60) to 3
million ($900). This considerably benefits NRM candidates who have
access to state resources not just for these fees but campaigning more
broadly.
Additionally, due to NRM control of regional budgets, if opposition
MPs are elected, they often find it difficult to access funds for
local projects while in office. This can lead to perceptions of poor
performance which makes it more likely they will be voted out in the
subsequent elections.
As one voter in an opposition area told African Arguments in a
previous piece, “This time I am not going waste my vote. This time I
am voting NRM so that my village will also get some new roads.” In
fact, Museveni strongly encourages this feeling in his speeches,
blaming voters for not “voting wisely” by electing opposition MPs, who
he says are responsible for under-development in their areas.
Given these many pressures, opposition hopefuls frequently struggle,
and many candidates prefer to run as independents rather than risk
intimidation during the polls and the squeezing of resources after
elections that typically comes with being in opposition.
A crowded field
However, while these constraints are clear to see, that is not to say
the opposition is completely powerless itself. In fact, if it had been
better prepared, these 2016 elections might have presented one of its
best opportunities yet to chip away at the NRM’s majority.
Last year, when Mbabazi, a former PM and NRM insider, decided to stand
against his long-time boss, many believed it would shake up the race.
The Democratic Alliance (TDA), a coalition of seven opposition parties
and two pressure groups, hoped that the combined clout of Mbabazi and
Besigye could truly challenge Museveni, and it moved to nominate a
single presidential candidate around which the opposition could
mobilise.
Ego and distrust ultimately undermined this process, with Mbabazi and
Besigye deciding to run on separate platforms. But crucially, this
failure also effectively ended attempts to cooperate in local and
parliamentary contests.
TDA was arguably first and foremost an anti-Museveni movement, meaning
that it was always likely to focus on the presidential race. This
perhaps makes sense in that Uganda’s political system heavily favours
the executive branch and invests huge power in the presidency.
Nevertheless, the simple failure to coordinate effectively in the
local and parliamentary polls with TDA’s demise is a missed
opportunity for the opposition more broadly.
Greater success in local and parliamentary elections would not promise
the same degree of change that winning the top job would, but
increased representation would in theory improve access to finances
which are allocated proportionally to the number of seats held, raise
party funding through MPs’ contributions, and expand opposition
influence over the legislative agenda. Local party offices are also
predominantly funded by MPs, so having an opposition parliamentarian
means greater party visibility at a local level, improved mobilisation
capacity, and higher likelihood of winning future elections.
Yet in many races now, the lack of coordination means that several
opposition candidates are running against each other which could
easily split the field and pave the way for narrow NRM victories.
In Masaka municipality, for instance, three separate opposition
figures are all running in a race that the NRM is keen to win. In
Soroti, an overflow of competing candidates could also end up being
lose-lose for the opposition. And in Kitgum, the phenomenon of the
opposition stepping on its own toes was encapsulated in the figure of
incumbent Beatrice Anywar, who switched from Besigye’s Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC) to Mbabazi’s Go Forward before ending up as an
independent; voters who had wanted to re-elect Anywar might reconsider
after the confusing debacle.
Moreover, while some race are being inundated with opposition runners,
the failure to organise and cooperate means 91 seats are not being
challenged at all, handing the NRM a significant head-start before the
polls even open.
[See: Podcast: Who will win Uganda’s 2016 elections?]
The rise of the independents
This state of affairs would always be unfavourable, but with the rise
of independent candidates in the 2016 elections, the opposition may be
particularly rueing its shortcomings.
The number of independents running in Uganda’s elections has increased
considerably in 2016, largely due to factional battles within the NRM.
In the ruling party’s 2015 primaries, 104 sitting MPs lost their place
as party flag-bearers as over 2,700 contenders competed for just 400
constituency seats. The fallout of this process, which was marred by
irregularities, contributed to the fact that there are now some 907
candidates running as independents.
The opposition could arguably have capitalised on this influx of
disaffected NRM cadres and attracted them to run as the nominees for
their own parties. This was indeed the expectation among some
observers, though it was always going to be easier said than done.
Given the myriad pressures imposed on opposition parties during
elections, most independents have few incentives to formally align
with them during the races, preferring instead to remain unaffiliated
and sell their allegiance to the highest bidder when elected.
However, the rise of independents could have helped the opposition’s
chances in a more indirect way. Given that many independents are
former members of the ruling party – and sometimes even former NRM MPs
– many races will see official NRM flag-bearers competing against
NRM-leaning independents. And like in the races in which several
opposition hopefuls could split the vote for the NRM to profit, there
are many contests in which multiple NRM-affiliated candidates could
split the ruling party vote. A joint opposition parliamentary
candidate with strong support could feasibly have taken advantage of
this.
A missed opportunity?
As the elections edge nearer, opposition campaigns continue to be
top-heavy and centred on the presidential race whilst neglecting local
and parliamentary contests.
The rhetoric used by Besigye and Mbabazi around the country, for
instance, tends to focus on the failings of Museveni and his regime
without offering serious critiques of local dynamics. This is a
serious oversight given the highly localised nature of voters’ choices
and the high turnover rate of incumbent MPs, 65% of whom were not
returned to office in 2011. As Andrew Mwenda says, reflecting on the
urban bias of the opposition, “People in Kampala think that voters
across the country look at the problems with national outlook. Yet for
many voters, elections are about local issues”.
[See: 6 things we learned from Uganda’s presidential debate]
Furthermore, when it comes to local and parliamentary candidates that
have openly joined with the opposition, the parties have not always
made that perilous decision worth it for them. For example, what
remains of the TDA – now rebranded as TDA-Uganda, having joined forces
with Mbabazi’s Go Forward platform – has said that it will be fielding
280 parliamentary candidates and 1,492 local government nominees. But
it is uncertain to what extent these candidates are being supported by
the group, especially after it was reported that Mbabazi slashed his
campaign spending by 41% in December.
That reduction of funds might make sense if the former PM believes
that he is now unlikely to defeat Museveni in the presidential race,
but the effect on the parliamentary and local contests is that several
members of the TDA-U are now accusing him of failing to live up to
promises to fund them and may turn their backs on the coalition.
The opposition in Uganda struggles to attract and retain the best
candidates as the NRM ensures that running against the ruling party
remains a risky and difficult business. But as the 18 February polls
fast approach, the opposition has not done itself any favours either.
Opposition parties may still record a strong showing, but if not, they
could end up regretting a missed opportunity.
Nicole Beardsworth is a South African political analyst and doctoral
candidate at the University of Warwick. Her research focuses on
opposition coordination in Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
For more on this subject, see:
Uganda’s 2016 elections: same same but different?
Podcast: Who will win Uganda’s 2016 elections?
6 things we learned from Uganda’s presidential debate
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2 thoughts on “Uganda: The opposition’s missed opportunity in
parliamentary and local elections”
Moses Musira says:
February 17, 2016 at 7:29 am
I am privileged to get the most important and partial information
about my country on the upcoming general elections.
I agree with you NRM will also do or die to make sure they emerge
winners in this elections come 18 Feb 2016.
One senior African journalist said, ” African politics the process
of election is actually selection”.
Charles Twesigye says:
February 17, 2016 at 9:36 am
The parliamentary and lower council elections are only important
if you have the presidency. Thats what the opposition is focusing on
given the intimidation and threats they face. Even if the parliament
was full of opposition, parliament here would do nothing if Museveni
is still in power. the main thing is to first get him out of the way,
and I think the opposition have, real chances of winning this
election.
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