*SOUTH SUDAN Cracks widen in peace deal / Africa Confidential Vol. 57 nº 14*
News of government attacks in Wau comes amid international warnings that
the peace deal is unravelling

As fresh fighting rages in Bahr el Ghazal, United States' officials are
discussing sanctions on the country's two main leaders – President Salva
Kiir Mayardit and Vice-President Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon – for failing to
implement the peace agreement they signed last August. Botswana's former
President, Festus Mogae, who heads the African Union's Joint Monitoring and
Evaluation Commission, began his 23 June statement with the words, 'It is
with a heavy heart that I address you today'.

The next day, Wau, a major garrison in the north-west and capital of the
former Bahr el Ghazal Region, was in turmoil as government forces and
allied militias launched the latest strike in General Salva Kiir's
counter-insurgency campaign. Many people died – the government says 40 but
it's likely to be many more – and around 120,000 fled to the bush, to the
United Nations' base and northwards to Darfur, Sudan.

Soldiers and Dinka fighters went from house to house killing and looting on
24-25 June, sources in Wau told Africa Confidential. A local church leader
said 13 people had been buried at the church, while a local woman said
soldiers had entered her house on 25 June, asking whether the residents
were Dinka. On finding that they were not, they started shooting, killing a
woman and a three-year-old child.

Over 12,000 civilians fled to the UN base in Wau and squatted within a
poorly protected perimeter next to it. Another 10,000 are in the Catholic
Cathedral, with thousands more in schools and other churches. More than
20,000 sought refuge outside town, said the International Committee of the
Red Cross. Wau is now calm, we hear. Entire districts are empty.

Salva Kiir's government and Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation
Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), which is technically now part of the
government but in practice still very separate, offered starkly different
accounts. The SPLM-IO military spokesman, Colonel William Gatjiath, told us
that the army had 'chased police forces' from the town and that irregular
forces from Warrap had taken part in the attacks. The events, he said,
'resembled the killing in Juba in December 2013', in which soldiers went
from door to door killing members of the Nuer ethnic group.

Meanwhile, Lul Ruai Koang, a Spokesman for the government forces, the Sudan
People's Liberation Army, said two columns of men had approached Wau from
the south in an attempt to infiltrate the town but were repelled by the
SPLA in coordination with police. People were afraid for their lives, he
said, but the SPLA was defending the town and was not the aggressor.

Neither account of police involvement sounds accurate. Wau's police force
is a mixture of Fertit, Dinka and Jur Chol and, we were told, the violence
divided loyalties within the police, wildlife and prison services, the
three non-army groups officially allowed to bear arms. Complicating a
simple ethnic analysis, the SPLA in Wau is dominated by Nuer troops who
remained loyal to the government throughout the recent civil war, while the
main ethnic group in Wau is the Jur, who traditionally live in harmony with
Dinka from adjoining areas, often intermarrying. One trigger for the
violence may have been the 23 June SPLA shooting of a Jur police captain
who was investigating the killing of civilians by SPLA in Wau's Haya Kosti
area, we hear.

Conflict had been brewing for months. Locals told us of anti-government
forces assembling in the area and often coming into town. Meanwhile,
brutality by government forces was such that Elias Waya Nyipuoch, then
Governor of Wau State (one of the 28 new states), investigated the abuses
and reported his findings to Juba (AC Vol 56 No 21, New maps, no peace).
Elias was a popular SPLA commander of over 20 years standing. Nevertheless,
the President removed him on 24 June, officially for inciting ethnic
violence. Many blame his popular and persistent attempts to discipline SPLA
forces. He was replaced by Andrea Mayar Achor, who was Speaker of the
Western Bahr el Ghazal Assembly until he was ousted by a no-confidence vote
last year.

Amid disagreement over cantonment sites for rebel forces under the peace
agreement, some see this as a similar government strategy to that in parts
of Western and Central Equatoria. Government opponents in Wau are angry at
what they see as an attempt by Salva's Dinka, the country's largest group,
which dominates the SPLA, to sideline the small local tribes collectively
known as Fertit, who traditionally live beside the Jur and Dinka,
especially in Western Bahr el Ghazal, of which Wau was previously capital.

Under the new plan, Wau is capital of Wau State and the Fertit capital,
Raja (Raga), is capital of the new Lol State. There is 'resentment' of the
SPLA, 'not a lot of trust and a feeling that they do not represent them',
says a Dinka civil society leader in Wau. 'The Fertit feel they have been
left out of national politics in South Sudan'. Yet Riek's proposed 21
states also leave Western Bahr el Ghazal split in two states, with the same
borders as Salva's.

During the 1983-2005 war, Khartoum recruited Fertit to fight the SPLA and
in 1987-88, Fertit fighters treated Dinka with a brutality that has not
been forgotten. 'Every time there is an issue it comes back to that,' said
the civil society leader. In December 2012, the government tried to shift
local government away from Wau, triggering protest at what was seen as a
Dinka takeover.

Several sources told AC they suspect the SPLA Chief of General Staff, Gen.
Paul Malong Awan, of playing a guiding role in the government's
counter-insurgency in the area. In April, Malong personally oversaw a
military operation in the area that deployed attack helicopters, said a
Human Rights Watch (HRW) report on 24 May. Many blame him for the massacres
of Nuer in Juba in December 2013 (AC Vol 55 No 9, Calling time on the
killing).

In December 2015, Malong appointed Major Gen. Attayib (or Thiap) Gatluak
'Taitai' to command SPLA Division 5, based at Grinti Barracks near Wau. As
Division 4 commander, Taitai had led a brutal government offensive in Unity
State in April-June 2015 when civilians were killed and raped. Grinti is
also the headquarters of SPLA Sector 1, whose commander, Lieutenant Gen.
Gabriel Jok Riak, has been under UN sanctions since July 2015 for breaking
the cessation of hostilities agreement and obstructing international
organisations from accessing affected areas.

Locals report regular abuses by SPLA. 'Soldiers handle civilians with an
iron hand,' says the Dinka community leader. Aid organisations registered
at least 38,000 people as displaced by fighting and abuse in predominantly
Fertit areas south-west of Wau even before the latest violence. In another
echo of the Equatorias, tension around Wau was further inflamed between
Fertit agriculturalists and Dinka herdsmen when armed cattle keepers from
neighbouring states moved into south and west Wau County in January,
destroying crops and occupying farming areas, said the International
Organisation for Migration.

Local militias have also spread, particularly south and west of Wau. In May
and June, they attacked Bazia and Farajallah, and clashed repeatedly with
SPLA into early 2016, said HRW. Raja was overrun by rebels on 15 June,
forcing the Governor and cabinet to flee and holding the town for 24 hours
before the SPLA pushed them out. 'In the last few months, the rebels have
been coming closer to Wau town from their bases in Ngo Alima, Tadu Bringi
and Ngo Kana', a church worker told us. 'They had no food and they were
suffering, so they'd come and stay with civilians in the town for two or
three days.'

The rebels are a mixture of 'Fertit, some other ethnic groups, recruits
from Northern Bahr el Ghazal, youths not happy with the government and
bandits taking advantage of the situation', said the civil society leader.
There is no evidence of official Fertit militia links to SPLM-IO though one
of its officials told AC that it would welcome them.

Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth, a prominent member of the
hardline group which wraps Salva in its embrace, said the Wau rebels were
from the Islamic Movement for the Liberation of Raja, led by Ali Tamim
Ahmed Fartak.

Some 700 militia had come from Sudan, Makuei said but civic leaders in Wau
denied this. The rebels 'received arms and ammunition from Sudan and the
Janjaweed' (Arab pro-Khartoum fighters from neighbouring Darfur) before the
clashes in Raja on 15 June, said another Wau source. Truckloads of weapons
also arrived, we hear. With 120,000 people displaced and no political
remedy for the underlying causes of the conflict, locals are bracing
themselves for more trouble.

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