*SPLM-IO disagreements will paralyse unity government, making implementation of South Sudan's current peace agreement unlikely/ IHS 25.07.16*
Risks: Civil war; Government instability Sectors or assets affected: All South Sudanese minister of mining Taban Deng Gai was nominated on 23 July by a section of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO)'s leadership to be first vice-president, in response to the absence of Riek Machar from the capital, Juba. First Vice-President Machar, leader of the SPLM-IO, announced on 22 July that he had fired Taban Deng Gai as minister of mining and had expelled him from the SPLM-IO, after Gai released a statement stating that Machar should return to Juba and resume his work in the government or be removed from office. Machar fled Juba earlier in the month following an eruption of fighting in the capital on 8 July between his forces and forces loyal to President Salva Kiir, which saw his residence bombed. Machar has since said he will only return if a neutral peacekeeping force is deployed in the capital, something President Salva Kiir continues to oppose. Significance: Gai's dismissal and subsequent reappointment as temporary first vice-president by part of the SPLM-IO leadership are indicative of deepening divisions within the SPLM-IO, which will likely paralyse the unity government and threaten to derail the implementation of the August 2015 peace agreement. Several senior members of the SPLM-IO have supported Gai's nomination, suggesting that the party may now divide into two separate factions, with serious ramifications for the composition and functioning of the unity government. President Kiir has since said he would not object to the replacement of Machar, amid accusations that he fomented the division within the SPLM-IO to deliberately destabilise the peace agreement. The Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) overseeing the implementation of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCISS) has criticised Gai's nomination to be first vice-president. Crucial aspects of the peace deal, including the establishment of a joint police force and army and the appointment of a speaker of parliament, are now likely to be further delayed. Outbreaks of shooting and targeted killings between supporters of Machar and Gai, and those of Machar and Kiir, are now likely nationwide as long as the current impasse continues. -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14oq6_Qsmaj-YgTwpKoHmn4Qm6rOGWtzF5PJOBLes8CJooA%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
