*South Sudan's fracturing politics portend violence / Oxford Analytica 25.07.16*
A split within the armed opposition risks shattering an already fragile peace South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar on Saturday missed a deadline set by President Silva Kiir to return to Juba. Machar fled from Juba after recent clashes between his Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) supporters and Kiir's camp. In his absence, a faction of the SPLM-IO announced that Taban Deng Gai (a member of the SPLM-IO and the current mining minister) had assumed the role of "acting" vice president. Machar's supporters called the move a coup and deemed it illegal, revealing deep divisions within the SPLM-IO. Machar has stated that additional international forces must deploy to Juba before he returns; Kiir has rejected calls for an augmented international force. Since July, at least 26,000 South Sudanese have fled the violence to neighbouring Uganda as refugees; more than 8,300 crossed the border on July 22 -- the highest one-day total this year. Our judgement Political divisions in South Sudan may deepen yet, with splits now appearing between and within factions. With Machar and his armed loyalists in hiding, the prospect of violence is rising, as the armed opposition faces exclusion from power. South Sudan's peace agreement appears in danger of disintegrating -- To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/southsudankob View this message at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/southsudankob/topic-id/message-id For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "South Sudan Info - The Kob" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/SouthSudanKob. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/SouthSudanKob/CAJb14ooPOi%2BufXnRvt1GZP9x%2BB%3D0R6Oe7tnp-_YxKyqVTo_aoA%40mail.gmail.com. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
