What’s at stake in Ghana’s too close to call election?
Posted on December 6, 2016 by Nelson Oppong
Pollsters disagree on who will win in a presidential race that has
been more about personalities than policy.
Ghana's presidential elections have typically been won by narrow
margins, and the upcoming vote looks to be just as close. Credit: Erik
Cleves Kristensen.
Ghana’s presidential elections have typically been won by narrow
margins, and the upcoming vote looks to be just as close. Credit: Erik
Cleves Kristensen.
Ghanaians head to the polls tomorrow, on 7 December, to elect a
President and representatives to fill the 275-member House of
Parliament. In the presidential race, seven candidates are competing,
but it largely a two-horse race between President John Dramani Mahama
of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) and leading
opposition candidate Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
While the ruling party is hoping Ghanaians endorse their
“Transformation” agenda, which promises a move towards an era of
prosperity and security, the NPP’s message is premised on “Change”,
envisioned to offer opportunities for all irrespective of background.
Results of opinion polls have generally been mixed. While the Economic
Intelligence Unit and Political Science Department of the University
of Ghana have predicted a victory for Akufo-Addo, reputable Ghanaian
pollster Ben Ephson suggests Mahama is set to win with 52.4%. It seems
the results will not be clear until the nearly 16 million registered
voters actually cast their ballots.
What is at stake?
The 2016 general election represents another important milestone in
the country’s democratic journey since 1992, which has seen six
elections and two alternations of power between the NPP and NDC. While
set to build on these advances, the stakes in the upcoming election
are high.
The previous elections in 2012 generated unprecedented levels of
anxiety. After the official results declared Mahama president by a
narrow margin, the opposition NPP filed a petition at the Supreme
Court to annul nearly 4 million votes that the party alleged were
tainted by irregularities. The hearing of the petition, which ran over
eight months, stretched the resilience of Ghana’s peaceful democratic
temperament and exposed some of the deep-seated frailties within
electoral institutions – particularly regarding the accuracy of the
electoral register and professionalism of polling officials.
The court eventually upheld the results, but the negative impact the
petition had on public confidence was captured by the 2014 Afro
Barometer Survey, which pointed to a fast deterioration in trust of
the Electoral Commission and other state institutions. The upcoming
elections represent an opportunity to reinvent the bedrock of Ghana’s
democratic politics.
The 2016 elections may also be the chance to stem growing cynicism
about the prospects of democratic politics to deliver developmental
dividends. In recent years, many analysts have watched in disbelief
the dismantling of the “virtuous cycle” of democratisation, good
governance, and stable growth that was once associated with Ghana.
Indeed, this election is taking place at a time of economic setbacks,
a deteriorating anti-corruption climate, dwindling opportunities for
employment and wealth creation, and an uncertain global climate that
has adversely affected revenues from gold and oil.
While many Ghanaians remain proud of the country’s democratic
credentials, they are growing frustrated about their failure to
increase the amount of money in people’s pockets and stem the tide of
corruption.
Personality or policy?
The campaign season has produced a spectacle of aesthetic ingenuity
and quixotic promises in equal measure.
As demonstrated by the commissioning and inauguration of various
projects, which have peaked in the last four weeks, President Mahama
is touting his government’s achievements in infrastructural
development with a promise to build on them to pursue further growth
in human capital development, employment opportunities,
infrastructure, and effective governance.
On the other side of the campaign, the NPP has accused the Mahama
government of inflicting severe economic hardships on Ghanaians due to
what Akufo-Addo and his team identify as mismanagement, corruption,
and incompetence. The opposition party has urged Ghanaians to change
course for a new vision based on effective management of the economy
and an ambitious industrialisation drive under a “One District One
Factory” programme and Industrial Development Fund that would create
jobs and prosperity.
Apart from the Progress People’s Party (PPP), led by a popular
businessman running for the third time, most of the smaller parties,
including the People’s National Congress, Convention People’s Party,
National Democratic Party, and an independent presidential candidate,
have barely enjoyed any visible presence in the campaign.
Amidst the deafening chorus of “change” from the opposition and
“continuity” from NDC supporters, the upcoming election has seen
slogans upstage any serious engagement with issues. For many voters,
most of the party manifestos came too late. Apart from the PPP, which
released its policy statement in July, the NDC and NPP launched theirs
less than three months to the election. Furthermore, unlike in 2012,
when there was as series of presidential and vice-presidential
debates, this time around the events were undermined by no-shows.
Nevertheless, deeper scrutiny of the NPP and NDC manifestos suggests
that decades of democratisation and donor-driven development have
eclipsed any ideological differences between the two major parties.
Although the NDC prides itself as being aligned with the tenets of
social democracy, Mahama is counting on a stabilisation programme
underwritten by the IMF and the private sector to deliver his plans
for jobs and prosperity. On the other hand, the NPP, which is often
linked with market-driven development, has rolled out various welfare
programmes, with a promise to restore allowances for teacher trainees
and nursing students that were rolled back by Mahama.
This growing convergence on policy and ideology means that the main
question of interest in this election has turned to who is more
competent and less corruptible, and the parties have according been
launching smearing campaigns and insults at one another.
The ruling NDC has touted the personable character (and in some
instances good looks and height) of Mahama, contrasting it with what
they present as the arrogant and less peaceful posture of Akufo-Addo.
The President has also come under attack from civil society groups for
stoking ethnic divisions in Northern regions, where he hails from,
after he accused the NPP of using Northerners to win power only to
dump them.
On the other hand, the NPP has tagged Mahama as “incompetent” and
“corrupt”, and instead projected what they consider as Akufo-Addo’s
incorruptibility and emphasised his running mate’s purported handle on
economic debates.
The growing personalisation and regionalisation of campaigning in this
year’s elections have given cause for concern with a rise in vitriolic
attacks in media discussion and sporadic violence across the country.
Questions remain as to whether the EC is up to the task
However, perhaps the main source of anxiety has surrounded the
preparedness and capacity of the Electoral Commission to deliver a
free and fair election. In the run up to the election, there has been
a strong spotlight on Charlotte Osei, who took over as Chairperson of
the Electoral Commission last year. In its past, the EC has received
plaudits for its performance, but the fallout from 2012 included
urgent calls for reforms to restore trust and credibility. After the
Supreme Court’s ruling in 2013, a Special Reform Committee was set up
and wrote a report recommending a wide range of reforms.
[Courting controversies: Ghana’s Electoral Commission under fire ahead
of close elections]
Approaching the elections, the EC has invested significant resources
in rebranding, creating more polling stations, training polling
officials, and simplifying electoral regulations. An independent
survey by the Centre for Democratic Development in Ghana about month
ago revealed that, apart from fears of electoral violence and vote
manipulation, most Ghanaians are confident the Commission will deliver
free, peaceful, and credible elections.
Yet while the EC is perhaps in better shape than four years ago,
several questions remain. While Osei has expressed her commitment to a
rigorous process, indiscretions under her leadership have threatened
to undermine credibility.
A case in point relates to the inauguration of an Election Steering
Committee earlier this year. When this body was set up, critics
pointed out that the Committee lacked any basis in the administrative
and legal structures of electoral administration and opposition
parties bemoaned the lack of consultation.
October also brought another surprise when the Commission disqualified
13 presidential candidates largely over clerical errors. Various
requests by candidates to correct these errors were not granted, which
led to a series of legal actions. Many journalists have also
questioned the decision of the EC to charge journalists fees,
amounting to about 10 cedis ($2), to cover the election.
The electoral register has also come under scrutiny. Immediately after
Osei assumed office, various opposition groups under the umbrella of
the Let My Vote Count Alliance petitioned and demonstrated in a bid to
urge the EC to compile a new voters’ register. The Commission rejected
the calls but promised to clean the database. The voters’ register
took centre stage again this year following a suit to invalidate the
voters’ register by two private citizens who had earlier won another
suit that barred the use of National Health Insurance Scheme IDs for
registration. The Commission’s failure to heed to the Supreme Court’s
order to delete names of voters who had registered with these IDs led
to an unnecessary legal circus that increased apprehension about the
EC’s preparedness.
These doubts grew recently following issues around missing names on
the voters’ register during the ‘Special Voting’ on 1 December whereby
security officers, media personnel and electoral officers vote ahead
of time. The process was extended to 4 December.
The Commission has assured voters that it has now learnt useful
lessons and that it is poised to deliver one of the most effective and
credible elections in Ghana’s history on 7 December.
Ghana’s voters will certainly hope so. The stakes in elections have
never been higher, the race rarely as tight, and the success of
Ghana’s democratic experiment going forward may depend on how
effectively the EC follows up its assurances with action.
Nelson Oppong is an international development scholar and consultant
with an interest in governance and the political economy of reform in
Africa, the Caribbean, and the Pacific. He has a PhD from Oxford
University, where he teaches African politics, development studies,
and global governance.
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One thought on “What’s at stake in Ghana’s too close to call election?”
Monte McMurchy says:
December 8, 2016 at 12:32 pm
What is important is that the Publc Administrative Institution
charged with the responsibility in conducting elections continues to
earn the confidence of the citizens as this EMB is most indeed a
reflection of the national public political ethos in choice
expression.
The civic civil electoral process inclusive of procedure must
always be sensitive to the needs and concerns of the citizen along
that of political entities.
The Institution responsible for elections must always be an
Institution beyond reproach as an Election Institution must be value
neutral in public expression but always professional in administrative
conduct including all matters electoral technical.
Ghana is no different as Ghana has within national society full
capacity to excellence.
I suspect the problems current are an unfortunate result in
Electoral Management Body EMB lacking in technical and professional
leadership.
My hope is that this unfortunate series of circumstances will in
future signal positive electoral anticipatory strengthening as good
elections free, fair, open are a mirror into the social condition of
that particular nation state.
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