We may have been massively overestimating the number of Chinese
migrants in Africa
Posted on December 19, 2016 by Hannah Postel
In Zambia as elsewhere, estimates of the size of the Chinese
population have been informed guesses at best. Until now.
Credit: MPD.
Relatively little is known about the make-up and number of Chinese
migrants in Africa. Credit: MPD.
China’s growing presence in Africa is not news. Deepening political
and economic relations between the superpower and continent have
attracted intense media and policy focus for a decade. However, one
crucial aspect of the Africa-China relationship – one with multiple
direct and significant impacts – has attracted much less attention:
the people.
Large numbers of Chinese migrants have accompanied the increasingly
intensive flows of Chinese goods and capital to Africa, settling all
across the continent. But what do we know about them? In fact, let’s
back up and ask an even more basic question: how many people are we
talking about?
The truth is, we have no idea. Estimates range from 250,000 to two
million, but experts agree that these approximations are anything from
“speculative” to “very problematic.” While it is clear that the number
of Chinese migrants in Africa has increased, especially over the last
decade, all estimates are at best informed guesses.
Accurate migration data in general can be elusive. The UN notes that,
“in many countries, even the most general statistics on migration are
incomplete, out-of-date or do not exist”. These challenges are
exacerbated when it comes to finding reliable information on Chinese
migrants in Africa. Many African countries lack the infrastructure to
produce any high quality statistics, and Chinese consular data is no
better.
With this in mind, I spent a year in Zambia conducting the first study
of its kind – compiling a database of unpublished immigration permit
data, manually transcribing and painstakingly analysing details from
more than 25,000 permits – to better understand the make-up and number
of Chinese nationals in the country.
Lessons from the data
This unprecedented primary data-set revealed several interesting insights.
First, it was clear that the vast majority of Chinese nationals
entering Zambia were there to work, largely for Chinese companies. In
2012, for instance, 95% of the 3,722 Chinese moving to Zambia were
labour migrants. Of these, 1,611 were sponsored by Chinese state-owned
enterprises and a further 315 worked for private Chinese companies.
678 were directly hired by Zambian government ministries, while the
remaining 1,118 were employed by other companies including joint
ventures and international firms.
The employment data on Chinese nationals also illuminated the economic
and social role they play in Zambia. Zambia’s immigration policy is
aimed at admitting highly-educated, investment-seeking foreigners to
combat local skills gaps, and Chinese migrants seem to match this
aspiration as demonstrated by the fact less than 1% of Chinese work
permit applicants were rejected in 2012. The Chinese straddle a
visible divide in the foreign populations in Zambia, occupying a
middle space between longer-term, lower-income “migrants” (often from
other African countries) and Western short-term “expats” in management
roles.
The data further illustrated the diversity of the Chinese migrant
population. For instance, migrants’ regions of origins within China
varied significantly, with central and northern areas particularly
well-represented. This can largely be explained by the
employment-driven nature of Chinese migration and the fact that most
large companies hire workers from their home regions. The evidence
also showed that Chinese migrants in Zambia work for a multitude of
both public and private actors.
While China’s presence in Africa is often simplistically characterised
as a monolith with a coherent Beijing-driven strategy, the data makes
clear that “the Chinese” in Zambia are far from homogenous. In fact,
the Chinese migrant community has only splintered as it has grown and
diversified.
One of the most contentious aspects of the Chinese presence in Africa
has been Chinese labour imports. Chinese companies have been accused
of hiring almost entirely from China to the exclusion of local
workers. Though a substantive body of research challenges this labour
import claim, showing that Chinese companies do hire a majority local
workforce, the Zambian data show that almost every large Chinese
company hired at least one “Chinese chef,” while 628 permits (17% of
the total) in 2012 were granted to people with vague titles like
“constructor” and “skilled worker”.
How many migrants?
But what about the most fundamental finding? How many Chinese migrants
are there in Zambia?
Before this study, the number of Chinese in Zambia had been commonly
accepted as 80,000 – based on an assertion made by the late Zambian
president Michael Sata during his first presidential bid in 2006. But
my data reveal that the Chinese population does not even approach this
size.
In fact, the evidence suggests that there were likely only 13,000
Chinese nationals in Zambia at the end of 2014 (with an upper bound of
23,000). My empirical approximation is strengthened by Zambia Deputy
Minister of Home Affairs’ March 2015 estimate that there were
approximately 20,000 Chinese nationals resident in Zambia.
The huge discrepancy between the prevailing 80,000 figure and the more
likely 13,000, along with the other findings from this research, is
important. Statistics are political; inaccurate claims about the
Chinese migrant population in Zambia have contributed to xenophobic
election rhetoric and occasional outbreaks of violence.
Similar studies in other African countries should be done to assess
whether the total Chinese population across the continent is similarly
overstated. It is worth noting that perceptions of migrant population
sizes tend to overstate the reality across the globe. It is also true
on a continental level that unverified and possibly hugely inflated
population estimates have fuelled significant fears – for example,
that Chinese migrants are “building a new empire in Africa.”
Good policy is based on facts, not hearsay. Better understanding the
Chinese communities on the continent is necessary for African
countries to make this growing trend is as productive and sustainable
as possible.
Hannah Postel is a migration researcher at the Center for Global
Development in Washington, DC. A Fulbright research grantee, she spent
a year in Zambia studying Chinese migration trends.
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One thought on “We may have been massively overestimating the number
of Chinese migrants in Africa”
lawrence says:
December 20, 2016 at 5:16 pm
From how many Zambian cities was the data collected?
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