All right, like, last year in the Caltech groups, there was a long and tedious discussion with David Saliva. Go online and look up the "Monty Hall Problem". The answer is 2/3, 1/3. If you don't believe me, try playing the game.
Tyson Mao MSC #631 California Institute of Technology On Dec 24, 2005, at 9:06 PM, pjgat09 wrote: > I would think this: > You have a 1/3 chance of being right > Host opens empty door > Now lets assume that door has gone away. There are only 2 doors, and > you chose one. You still have a 1/2 chnace no matter what the host > does. Opening a door didnt change your chances. > > Peter Greenwood > > --- In [email protected], Chris Hunt > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> Ah, sounds like my explanation might be wrong, but at least I pick > the right >> door :) >> >> -Chris >> >> On 12/24/05, Evan Gates <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> >>> After you choose a door, the host has to open one. Two out of the > three >>> times, he has no choice which one to open. When you pick the door at >>> first, >>> you have a 1/3 chance of being right. After he opens a door, if > you stay >>> with the door you first chose, you still have a 1/3 chance, if you > switch, >>> you have a 2/3 chance. There are three possibilities, considering >>> you >>> switch doors. >>> 1) you were right at first, and you lose >>> 2) you were wrong at first, and you win >>> 3) you were wrong at first(other door), and you win >>> Two out of the three possible outcomes, you win >>> >>> It also might help if you think of 100 doors instead of 3. >>> You choose one door, you have a 1/100 or 1% chance of being right. > You >>> stay >>> with that door while the host opens 98 doors, so you are down to > 2, the >>> one >>> you originally chose, and the last one that he hasn't open. > Staying with >>> your first choice, you still have a 1% chance. But if you switch, >>> you >>> have >>> a 99% chance. There is a reason that he hasn't yet opened that > door. By >>> opening the other ones, he's giving you a clue about where the car >>> is. >>> >>> and boy do I hope I'm right, because rereading that i sound really >>> arrogant lol (really, I'm not and I don't mean to be) ;-) >>> -Evan >>> >>> Until next time, Happy Cubing >>> http://www.deepcube.net >>> >>> >>> On 12/24/05, pjgat09 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>> >>>> Hmm, lets see. You start with 3 doors, one with a car. The host >>>> cancels out a door giving you 2 doors. That means your guess has > a 1/2 >>>> chance of being correct. There is no point in changing, its 50-50 no >>>> matter what. (unless the game is rigged where the car moves from one >>>> door to the next :P ) >>>> >>>> I would stay with my first choice, though it doesnt matter. Its all >>>> personal preferance. >>>> >>>> Peter Greenwood >>>> >>>> --- In [email protected], Pedro > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Ok, this is off topic, but is interesting... >>>>> >>>>> (please forgive if I make some mistake on the english...) >>>>> Suppose you are at a TV show, where you have 3 doors. 1 of the >>>> doors has a car, and the other 2 don't have anything. So, the show >>>> presenter asks you to choose a door. So, you choose, but he doesn't >>>> open your choosen door. He opens an empty door. Then, he makes a >>>> question: do you want to continue with your first choice or > change to >>>> the other door? >>>>> >>>>> What do you do? >>>>> What situation gives you more chances of winning? >>>>> >>>>> Think about it... >>>>> >>>>> Pedro >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> --------------------------------- >>>>> Yahoo! doce lar. Faça do Yahoo! sua homepage. >>>>> >>>>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS >>>> >>>> >>>> - Visit your group "speedsolvingrubikscube< >>> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube>" >>>> on the web. >>>> >>>> - To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: >>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]< >>> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>> >>>> - Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >>>> Service <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>. >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> >>> >>> >>> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Yahoo! Groups Links >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] >> > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
