Hi Duncan and Stefan and Pedro and Evan,

Sorry, you guys, but you aren't correct.

In probability there's a thing called the law of large numbers. If you
generate a long enough string of numbers "randomly" that eventually
you would have every digit the same number of times. N oparticular
number is favored. Your answer relies upon this law of randomness.

What is actually wrong with the standard answere you gave is that one
is not dealing with a large number of choices, and, as such, odds *do
not apply.*

I went to a site with the software and made my choice and did not
switch and I won. Doing it more than once is outside the boundaries of
the game. 

Cheers,

David J


--- In [email protected], "Duncan Dicks"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> I Had a freind who wouldnt believe this no matter how often I
explained the 
> maths to him so he set up spreadsheet to test it out.  Very easy to
do and 
> confirmed what the maths tells you - you should switch!
> 
> Duncan
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "aznseashell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: <[email protected]>
> Sent: Sunday, December 25, 2005 7:04 AM
> Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors...
> 
> 
> Haven't we had this dicussion before? Or was it in another cubing group?
> 
> The game is set up so that if you switch, a winning choice would
> become a losing choice and vice versa. In the beginning you had a 1/3
> chance of winning and 2/3 chance of losing. Staying with your choice
> doesn't change your odds of winning (the host will always be able to
> show you a door with nothing behind it no matter which door you
> picked), but switching will turn your probabability of winning to 2/3.
> 
> If my explanation makes no sense, consider the situation with 100
> doors and one door with a prize. You pick a door, and the host shows
> you 98 doors with nothing behind them. Now it's much more obvious that
> you should switch, right?
> 
> Shelley
> 
> 
> --- In [email protected], "richy_jr_2000"
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> > It is counter intuitive, but if you are in this situation, your
> > chances would be better to switch to the other door.  It's actually
> > quite interesting.
> >
> > -Richard
> >
> > --- In [email protected], Pedro
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > >
> > > Ok, this is off topic, but is interesting...
> > >
> > >   (please forgive if I make some mistake on the english...)
> > >   Suppose you are at a TV show, where you have 3 doors. 1 of the
> > doors has a car, and the other 2 don't have anything. So, the show
> > presenter asks you to choose a door. So, you choose, but he doesn't
> > open your choosen door. He opens an empty door. Then, he makes a
> > question: do you want to continue with your first choice or change to
> > the other door?
> > >
> > >   What do you do?
> > >   What situation gives you more chances of winning?
> > >
> > >   Think about it...
> > >
> > >   Pedro
> > >
> > >
> > > ---------------------------------
> > >  Yahoo! doce lar. Faça do Yahoo! sua homepage.
> > >
> > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
> > >
> >
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>







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