Hi Bob, As I wrote in response to Gustav, I did 100 trials with no switching and won 76 times.
--- In [email protected], "Bob Burton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > I did 100 trials, swithing my choice for 50 and keeping my choice for > the other 50. > > The results: > > When keeping choice: 16/50 wins => 32% > When changing choice: 32/50 wins => 64% > Overall total: 48/100 wins => 48% > Conclusion: You are twice as likely to win if you change your choice. > > There was obviously a clear distinction between keeping my choice and > changing it. > > I used this to play: > http://people.hofstra.edu/staff/steven_r_costenoble/MontyHall/MontyHallSim.html I used my own program on an Atari 800, because I didn't have the time to decompile and check for myself the veracity of another's program. > Think of it this way: > > When you are shown one of the empty doors, your chances of winning by > keeping your original choice is still 1/3, not 1/2. The door shown to > you was not chosen at random. This isn't exactly true. According to the definitions in play it was chose "at random" whenever you chose the winning door because "Monty Hall" had to choose between two losing doors, and eliminate one, and he had "noreason to favor one over the other." David J > > ~ Bob > > --- In [email protected], "d_j_salvia" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Hi Duncan and Stefan and Pedro and Evan, > > > > Sorry, you guys, but you aren't correct. > > > > In probability there's a thing called the law of large numbers. If you > > generate a long enough string of numbers "randomly" that eventually > > you would have every digit the same number of times. N oparticular > > number is favored. Your answer relies upon this law of randomness. > > > > What is actually wrong with the standard answere you gave is that one > > is not dealing with a large number of choices, and, as such, odds *do > > not apply.* > > > > I went to a site with the software and made my choice and did not > > switch and I won. Doing it more than once is outside the boundaries of > > the game. > > > > Cheers, > > > > David J > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "Duncan Dicks" > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > I Had a freind who wouldnt believe this no matter how often I > > explained the > > > maths to him so he set up spreadsheet to test it out. Very easy to > > do and > > > confirmed what the maths tells you - you should switch! > > > > > > Duncan > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "aznseashell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > Sent: Sunday, December 25, 2005 7:04 AM > > > Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... > > > > > > > > > Haven't we had this dicussion before? Or was it in another cubing > group? > > > > > > The game is set up so that if you switch, a winning choice would > > > become a losing choice and vice versa. In the beginning you had a 1/3 > > > chance of winning and 2/3 chance of losing. Staying with your choice > > > doesn't change your odds of winning (the host will always be able to > > > show you a door with nothing behind it no matter which door you > > > picked), but switching will turn your probabability of winning to 2/3. > > > > > > If my explanation makes no sense, consider the situation with 100 > > > doors and one door with a prize. You pick a door, and the host shows > > > you 98 doors with nothing behind them. Now it's much more obvious that > > > you should switch, right? > > > > > > Shelley > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "richy_jr_2000" > > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > It is counter intuitive, but if you are in this situation, your > > > > chances would be better to switch to the other door. It's actually > > > > quite interesting. > > > > > > > > -Richard > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], Pedro > > > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Ok, this is off topic, but is interesting... > > > > > > > > > > (please forgive if I make some mistake on the english...) > > > > > Suppose you are at a TV show, where you have 3 doors. 1 of the > > > > doors has a car, and the other 2 don't have anything. So, the show > > > > presenter asks you to choose a door. So, you choose, but he doesn't > > > > open your choosen door. He opens an empty door. Then, he makes a > > > > question: do you want to continue with your first choice or > change to > > > > the other door? > > > > > > > > > > What do you do? > > > > > What situation gives you more chances of winning? > > > > > > > > > > Think about it... > > > > > > > > > > Pedro > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --------------------------------- > > > > > Yahoo! doce lar. Faça do Yahoo! sua homepage. > > > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
