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NATO's Entry into Macedonia Will Mean Victory for Militants
1700 GMT, 010627
Summary

NATO is pressing Macedonia's government to give in to the demands of
Albanian militants while preparing to move alliance troops into the
region. NATO's entry into Macedonia will be a victory for the militants.
By luring NATO in as an unwitting ally, Albanian guerrillas will achieve
by peaceful means what they were unable to do through military action.
Dissent within Macedonia's army, opposition groups and the general
population will likely topple the current pro-Western government.

Analysis

 
On June 25, NATO and U.S. troops escorted 500 Albanian rebels, with all
their weapons, from a village under attack by the Macedonian army to a
rebel-held village to the north, Agence France-Presse reported. The
event sparked a massive violent protest in Skopje, where 6,000
Macedonian Slavs, including army and police reservists, stormed the
Parliament and chased away President Boris Trajkovski. 
 
6,000 Macedonian Slavs stormed the Parliament in Skopje and chased away
President Boris Trajkovski on 
June 25, 2001.
 
NATO is continuing efforts to reach an accord between the government and
the rebels under which the country would be transformed into a
two-nation state, with NATO troops presiding over disarmament of the
guerrillas.

To avoid taking casualties, NATO is pressing the Macedonian government
to give in to the demands of the rebels to avoid a confrontation. NATO's
entry into Macedonia will be a victory for the militants, allowing them
to achieve more of their demands. The resulting protests over
concessions given to the rebels will lead to the toppling of the current
pro-Western government.

NATO plans to go into Macedonia and transform it into a two-nation
state, creating a new Kosovo with Albanian militants effectively
controlling all Albanian-populated parts of the country. NATO forces,
however, will be unable to stop the guerrillas' terror campaign against
non-Albanians. Albanian-populated parts of Macedonia will be effectively
severed from Macedonia and run by Albanian militants and organized crime
syndicates.

As in Bosnia and Kosovo, NATO troops will have to stay in the country
indefinitely, or major fighting will resume immediately after their
departure. Macedonia's government will be torn apart between the
necessity to preserve the country's integrity and NATO demands for peace
with the Albanian rebels instead of war. 

By seeking to avoid conflict, NATO is unwittingly siding with the
rebels, and the situation in Macedonia and the Balkans will further
deteriorate. Since most Macedonians want the government to wipe out the
rebels and preserve the country's current status, massive protests or
even an uprising are likely to topple Trajkovski's government, paving
the way to a confrontation between the new Macedonian government and
NATO. 

NATO troops on the ground would be exposed to attacks in a hostile
environment, where the population will see them as collaborators with
Albanian militants. If a new Macedonian government does not confront
NATO, the Albanians will achieve a victory. 

The Albanians, emboldened by NATO protection, will strengthen their hold
on Kosovo and one-third of Macedonia while expanding their Greater
Albania campaign over other parts of the Balkans, such as southern
Serbia, Montenegro and northern Greece. 

Rebels are resuming their attacks on Serbian police in the buffer zone
between Kosovo and Serbia, despite the fact that their withdrawal from
the area was recently negotiated under NATO supervision. Serbia's Srna
agency reports that the latest attack occurred on June 25, when
guerrillas ambushed a Serbian police patrol.

The Albanians will benefit from an increased NATO presence, as the
alliance has been pursuing a conciliatory policy toward the rebels. NATO
does not want a military engagement with the rebels and is actively
pushing the Macedonian government to accept their demands, saying there
will be no aid to Macedonia until a peace agreement is reached. 

EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten told Macedonian Foreign
Minister Ilinka Mitreva June 25, "There is little we can do in terms of
financial support until there is a political settlement," UPI reported. 

But Macedonia's government would be crippled if it accepted the
Albanians' demands. Though formally the country's Albanians call for
creating a federation, the central government in Skopje would have no
control over one-third of the country.

The Albanians are also demanding the appointment of an Albanian vice
president in the government with the right to veto any presidential
decision, a move that would lead to complete paralysis of central
government activities and create a situation where only
Albanian-supported initiatives are adopted.

While NATO is continuing to pressure Macedonia for concessions, the
Albanians will stick to their demands until Macedonia's government caves
in under alliance pressure or falls due to public protests by the Slav
majority. 

By pushing Macedonia into accepting Albanian demands, NATO seems to not
understand that this will serve the purposes of Albanian militants in
the region, who will gradually take political, economic and military
control over a considerable part of the Balkans while using NATO forces
as protection. 

Though they have different names, the Albanian rebel forces in Kosovo,
southern Serbia and Macedonia in fact represent a united force, with the
militant structures of the Kosovo Liberation Army at the core. Albanian
insurgency would be impossible in Macedonia if there was no major
support from Kosovo. 

Experienced Kosovo fighters can penetrate through the porous border to
Macedonia almost at will. A KFOR spokesman told the Tanjug news agency
that in the past few days seven NLA insurgents were detained while
crossing the border from Kosovo. KFOR members also seized a sizeable
quantity of arms and ammunition intended for Albanian forces in
Macedonia. Giving in to the rebels' demands would likely embolden these
forces and prolong the conflict further


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