I haven't been reading all your Smoking posts lately, so forgive me if you've gone over this already. But anyone who spends their free time thinking about Cigs Sigma should be taxed heavily. You may recall the statistical analogy of "Ice cream sales drop during ice fishing season" as a way of pointing out that its not the fishing that is the cause but the weather. (And, yes, the fishing season is also a result of the weather but it's not the direct cause of the sales drop.) I bring this up because my suburbanite, "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" friend says that the ban in Duluth has definitely resulted in bar closings. Now, based on what he has said and what I have read here and there, it seems as though bars have closed up there (how many, 5?) and that bars have opened up there (19?). To say that a bar closed after a ban because of the ban is meaningless unless one looks at the historical data. it may well be that EVERY year 19 bars open and 5 close; after all, everyone always says that the bar and restaurant business is tricksy, and that only 1 in 5 or 10 survive at all (without regard to laws, bans, acts of God, etc.). That's where Cigs Sigma comes in. Essentially it is a statistical way to make decisions based on data. Your "null hypothesis" is "Smoking bans do NOT affect bar and restaurant closure rate." You collect some data from Duluth and Rochester, use your statistical tools, and voila - either you accept your null hypothesis or you reject it. Any Black Belt could do this in a day, probably. If Randy Kelly can spend 10 grand of our money on trying to get a stadium we don't want (downtown, at least) then he could pay someone a couple hundred to crunch the numbers. So what are the bar/restaurant openings and closings for the five years preceding bans in Duluth, Rochester, Ireland, and Norway, and what are the post-ban numbers? Also, what are the total sales numbers? Take into account things like the economy, 9/11, etc. and it should be clear what the effects have been. By the way, in Ireland the ban is largely ignored except in "high-profile," tourist areas. Surprise, surprise... AMH Green Belt Andrew M. Hine Corporate Research Materials Laboratory 3M Center 201-1W-28 St. Paul MN 55144-1000 USA [EMAIL PROTECTED] Tel: (651) 733-1070 Fax: (651) 737-5335 Lab 201-W110 _____________________________________________ NEW ADDRESS FOR LIST: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, modify subscription, or get your password - visit: http://www.mnforum.org/mailman/listinfo/stpaul Archive Address: http://www.mnforum.org/mailman/private/stpaul/
