We are reading quite a bit about the endorsement/nomination process on the list 
recently.  Just to be clear, parties endorse and primary voters nominate.  In our odd 
year elections (horribly misnomered "nonpartisan"), there are no party slots to fill - 
just the top two vote getters, regardless of affiliation.  Contrast this to our even 
year elections, when the primary pits candidates within parties to winning that 
party's nomination.  So long as you have a party to back you, a nominee from that 
party will be on the November ballot in even years.

But confusion arising from these two very different systems has crept in other places 
beyond this list.  As I read my Strib, I found the following:

"The idea that St. Paul is one big DFL monolith is wrong," said Erich Mische, a key 
adviser to both Kelly and Coleman. "At the end of the day, the people in St. Paul care 
about whether you kept their taxes down, shoveled their streets and did what you said 
you'd do."
http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4907839.html

And what does he base this on?  The last three mayoral races - two of which were won 
by candidates running as Democrats!  The one Republican win was after the great 
flip-flopperoo of the incumbent, Norm Coleman, who was running for reelection during 
the Clinton Prosperity - not a real test of strength.

So, to test out party strength lets just check out the partisan results in Saint Paul 
for the House in 2002 (generally considered a good Republican year).  The percentages 
of the votes cast are as follows: 

DFL  R
76 - 23 (64A)
68 - 31 (64B)
79 - 20 (65A)
72 - 26 (65B)
71 - 28 (66A)
71 - 27 (66B)
69 - 30 (67A)
67 - 32 (67B) (That last number was P.K.'s btw - good effort)

Looks pretty damn monolithic to me.  So how come the mayor's race is different?  
Billiards.  Successful mayoral candidates (with the one exception noted above) run as 
Democrats.  The DFL-endorsed candidate wins the primary (with the NC exception in 
1997) and the more conservative Democrat comes in second with other candidates 
splitting the remaining votes.  In the general election, the more conservative 
Democrat gets the Republican vote and then must shave off enough votes from the 
Democrat side to reach 50%+1.

I can hear you saying, "Great theory, but can you test it?"  Why, yes I can, using the 
School Board races in the same odd year elections as mayor and city council members.  
Since there are two candidate slots for each seat, but either three or four seats up 
each year, the "bank shot" approach doesn't work (we can discuss a variation - the 
bullet ballot - another time).  Looking back over the School Board races in Saint Paul 
for as far back as you care to go, the only Republican that wins is the incumbent, Tom 
Conlon.  And he didn't even describe himself as a Republican on his campaign website 
in the last election.  Not a resounding show of strength.  The winners are the DFL 
endorsees and TC  every time. 

Those that crow about the difficulties facing the endorsed DFL candidate for Mayor 
need to remember that the DFL-endorsed candidate is always in the general election in 
November.  The Republican endorsed candidate for mayor in 2001 - and yes, there was an 
endorsed Republican candidate - finished fourth.

Michael Lewis
Ward 3 DFL Chair
Mac-Groveland





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