On Fri, 31 Dec 2004 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Wal-Mart will die not from protesters, but from consumers who will slowly return to wanting quality and service over low prices. You get what you pay for.
Not to get all Criswell about it, but I predict that within 3 years the Wal*Mart store we're all worried about will be empty again.
I think Chuck is right, but also I think that there are a LOT of signs this Xmas that people on the lower end of the stick are doing very, very badly -- and that the only people with real disposable income are quite wealthy. If you don't believe me, wait for the quarterly reports to come out in late January/early February. Wal*Mart had a terrible Xmas.
These things DO move in cycles, based on economic cycles (the lower middle class had disposable income in the 90s, they don't now) and fads. The problem is that, as we have seen, cities are forced to respond to these things and build infrastructure. Facing these "competitive threats" cities like Saint Paul often build infrastructure on 30 year bonds, TIF or not, that is useless in just 10 years or less.
So far, the size of these kinds of things is the real problem. Small changes constantly might be absorbable, but we have big changes constantly. It's not good. In the case of the Midway Plaza, we already have a vacant Mervyn's to worry about, and that does not look to be filled any time soon.
Wal*Mart is already struggling, believe it or not, because they have clearly saturated their market while that market stopped existing. They financed a lot of this with sales of stock, which relied on constant expansion. Clearly, that era is over for them after an impressive run. How they respond to the changes they are facing determines whether they can hold on or start withering away -- just like Monkey Ward's.
Erik Hare [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://home.comcast.net/~wabbitoid/ Irvine Park, West End, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA, North America, Earth
Fine Amish furniture, cedar chests, and crafts http://www.harmonycedar.com
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