Thank you Greg. It's good to have some knowledge, just in case. Homeland Security has a website - ready.gov - with practical suggestions about storing water and food, and how to shelter for a while. But no science.
A co n spiracy-theorist friends believes the whole thing is a ploy to create a "crisis" providing an excuse for military rule. We're a relatively young country, and we each takes what stands we can to protect what's left of democracy. I spend time daily with my gratitude list. On Aug 9, 2017 12:18 PM, "Greg Nelson" <terraman...@gmail.com> wrote: > I'm actually in the radiation measurement business, so I suppose I ought > to reply. However, this is my perspective as an individual and not > representative of my employer. Also, this is kind of dire so if that is > not what you want to read today, consider yourself forewarned. > > First and foremost let's hope it doesn't go there. But based on your "if > something dire actually happens" premise, I think the following > considerations are relevant. > > 1. All indications are that the North Koreans do not (yet) have weapons > that can survive re-entry or reach the continental US. This reduces the > likelihood that a nuclear device will be detonated within the US. (It does > nothing to alleviate the pain and suffering of any who live where a device > is detonated, and I'm not trying to minimize that, but health and safety > tips for that population are outside my expertise. It also does not > eliminate the possibility of a high-atmospheric detonation - see 5 below.) > 2. Assuming devices (theirs or ours) are detonated in Asia, there will > definitely be atmospheric fallout. Depending on the scale of the bombing, > this might be significantly worse that what was seen during WWII, or it > might be similar. However, the levels of radiation reaching the US would > in any realistic scenario I can think of be not an immediate threat to life > and health. > 3. There are two families isotopes of significant impact: iodine and > cesium. > A. For iodine, the largest risk to health will be in the first ~30 days > due to the very short half life. Iodine accumulates in the thyroid, and > one of the common forms of protection is the consumption of potassium > iodide (KI) tablets (nutritionally similar to salt substitute and possibly > better for you) to ensure that non-radioactive iodine dominates in the > bloodstream and the bulk of any radioactive iodine consumed is excreted > again. Since KI tablets have a nearly infinite shelf life (as long as > they're kept dry) there isn't any good reason not to stock up on these. > (Although as of today, you might very well find the sellers are suddenly > hiking their prices.) > B. For cesium (Cs137) the issue is that it has an extremely long > half-life, and will be bioaccumulated (it is chemically interchangeable > with sodium) and do damage over a long period. In this case, the best > recommendation I know of is eating as low as you can on the food chain, and > local. (Hah, see how this relates to Sustainable Tompkins!?) The former > means that you're not eating things that ate things that ate things with > more and more Cs137 being concentrated all the way up the food chain. The > latter means you're getting food from a part of the world that is > relatively far away from where we've assumed the detonation has occurred. > I'm not certain whether consuming additional salt (NaCl) or potassium > iodide may be protective in this situation, but I might speculate that if > the body has a surplus of sodium and potassium, it might excrete more > cesium. > 4. The recommendations above are mostly related to the fission products, > which are largely similar to what was seen out of Chernobyl and Fukashima. > Our weapons are (most likely) combined fission/fusion devices, while it's > less clear that this complex mechanism has been effectively developed by > North Korea. I don't have nearly as much information about what is > typically produced by the fusion portion, other than neutrons. Neutrons > are a strictly local phenomenon - once they slow down enough, they will > generally be absorbed into water, air, etc. and if they don't, they're not > able to do any damage either (because that absorption is how they'd do > damage to the body). I wouldn't say that we can completely ignore this, > but it's not likely to create the same kind of medium-term byproducts that > fission will. > 5. We can't completely discount the atmospheric or stratospheric > detonation of a nuclear device. This would also produce fallout which > would be much more uniform and widespread - both of which mean less > concentration in any one area. But there's another immediate impact to > consider here, and that is the EMP pulse that could disable (temporarily or > permanently) any sufficiently nearby and unshielded electrical/electronic > equipment within line-of-sight. (If you saw the movie "The Day After" > you'll recognize this concept.) That could mean massive disruption to > satellites - presumably the military ones are shielded, but likely most > public communications, weather, etc. satellites are not explicitly > protected because of the huge cost of sending any extra weight into space. > There could also be a significant impact on infrastructure in nearby Asian > countries, so for example factories in South Korea or Japan might be shut > down due to power grid outages, rather than due to nuclear radiation. > 6. Outside of my area of expertise: I would expect massive disruptions to > the financial markets if a nuclear device were actually detonated in > warfare. Also I would be almost surprised if this wasn't used as an excuse > to declare a state of emergency and a power grab by the federal > government/executive branch. How you think makes sense to prepare for > these I would leave to your own discretion, but I wouldn't ignore these > risks - food is hard to buy without money or transportation. > > Greg > > On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:28 AM, Patricia Haines <levelgreen2...@gmail.com> > wrote: > >> Beyond saving seeds, if something dire actually happens, how do we >> manage? Health and safety tips? Not to be alarmist, just thinking ahead to >> what might be possible. >> > > > > -- > To dither or deliver/Decent deeds don't deceive > Decide to override/Poor programming > Gracious gratitude/Sprinkled and spread > Leading lives of love/And conscience instead > -- My Love > For more information about sustainability in the Tompkins County area, please visit: http://www.sustainabletompkins.org/ If you have questions about this list please contact the list manager, Tom Shelley, at t...@cornell.edu.
