Before the invasion of Iraq, I pointed out in different ways and times the 
following,

Iraq consist of 80% women and children under 16 years old. This as a result 
of the Iraq and Iran war, supported by US. The first Gulf war and the 
blockade of food and medical supply. It is true that there are nearly no 
family or circle of friends who did not have a member killed in the Iran 
war or by the oppressive regime. It is also true that the same can be said 
about the Americans and their policies. I claimed that US would not be 
hailed as a liberator and that the "winning of hearts and minds" was a very 
naive proposition. Today we can see this and the Americans have killed a 
larger number of Fathers, Brothers, Friends and even some collateral 
damages on the female side of the population. The started with a childish 
proudness of the terror tactics "shock and awe" and continued with "trigger 
happiness". It is non who claims any large successes in "winning hearts and 
minds", instead we have seen some extremely stupid events in the prison 
system.

Now I only like to point out some severe logical failures in the reporting 
and propaganda from Iraq. A US combat soldier on the ground in Iraq, is 
depending of 5 to 10 other military support personal to "fight, eat, shit 
and move". This means that of the US force of around 130,000, it is only 
around 30,000 that really comes in contact with Iraqi people and combat 
situations. That is one thousands of a percent, compared with the Iraqi 
population. It is almost impossible to maintain any kind security and to 
live up to their obligations according to the Geneva convention, as an 
occupying force. This is also why the current "hand over of sovereignty" is 
rushed through, as if US after that would no longer have any legal 
responsibilities and a moral victory.

According to the "coalition" the resistance in Iraq, are foreign 
terrorists, local terrorists, insurgents and plain criminals. If we look at 
the numbers, the US heroes are killing them with their technical 
superiority (night scopes etc.) in relations higher than 1 American to 15 
insurgents. Most combats are therefor night combats, where US search and 
kill insurgents. It is also a very high number of innocent collateral 
damage (bystanders). The propaganda want us to belive that these insurgents 
pops up during night, like targets on a shooting range and they come almost 
from nowhere and seems to exists in unlimited numbers. The fact is that 
those insurgents also "fight, eat, shit and move". They must have support 
of 5 to 10 members of the population to do so. Making some numbers out of 
it, there must be insurgents and supporters in the range of 1,500,000 
people, or a very large part of the Iraqi able population, that probably 
are around 5,000,000 men.

I might be off both up and down, but not totally wrong in the principle. 
The question is how US will win this, without putting maybe 10 times more 
troops on the ground and with much ruthless behavior. Selected "sovereign 
government", have little chance to survive without massive US support and 
if the Iraqis do not get the opportunity to really free elections, it will 
continue to go on. Really free elections will probably lead to a Iran style 
Muslim scenario and that is not acceptable for the US, because this means 
that "Bin Laden" won. There are also large risks for collapse and civil war 
and a large scale escalation in the region. The situation is very dangerous 
and in no way out of the woods yet.

It does not look good for US energy supplies and price levels, because it 
could be severe impacts on the US economy. My "survival kit" advice in this 
situation is, sell your SUV when you can and get a small energy efficient 
diesel car, prepared for biodiesel.

Hakan 




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