Published on Monday, July 5, 2004 by The Daily Star Don't blame the Arabs: Oil faces new threats beyond the Gulf by Ed Blanche http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=906
Ed Blanche, a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, is a Beirut-based journalist who has covered Middle Eastern affairs for three decades. He is a regular contributor to THE DAILY STAR. BEIRUT: The United States' drive for energy security, one of the dominant elements in its tough-guy foreign policy, is running into trouble around the globe, making US control of Iraq's oil wealth ever more necessary. And that is sure to stir up more trouble, unsettling a market that has become volatile and unpredictable. In an effort to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the Americans have been encouraging the quest for new sources of oil and gas for some time, but this has often led oilmen into regions that were unstable, or are made so by their presence and the greed their product instills among the political elites. These days, the New York Times commented recently, "the discovery of oil is itself almost a guarantee of conflict." In short, the world's main oil-producing regions are becoming political quagmires that threaten global supply, and this is likely to keep oil prices high for some considerable time no matter what happens in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Major convulsions in those countries, which seem unavoidable, will only worsen an already bad situation. The violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia has kept the concerns of oil-importing countries like the US focused on the Middle East. But in recent months there have been internal problems in key oil producers like Venezuela, Nigeria and Norway that have either reduced oil production or threaten to do so. None of this will bring any comfort to the Middle East. With production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries stretched and global oil demand expected to keep rising due to strong economic growth in industrialized countries and population giants China and India, a major disruption by a top producer such as Venezuela, the world's fifth largest exporter with the western hemisphere's largest reserves, could trigger a global crisis. (SNIP) The ruling elites in several of the Central Asian states sitting on these vast deposits of oil and gas are as totalitarian as the Soviets who were their masters until the collapse of communism nearly 15 years ago. Political upheaval could erupt in the not-too-distant future as these elites, enriched by the oil profits and courted by the US for their energy resources and their strategic military value, establish dynasties through which they will maintain their grip on power. Islamic extremists fighting the Russians in nearby Chechnya could find the pipeline a tempting target. As it is, the Caspian region lacks investment and suffers serious export bottlenecks, so it cannot be counted on to compensate for any loss in production in Iraq, Saudi Arabia or anywhere else. Georgia could also be a collision point between Russia and the US, which backed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as a way to cut into Moscow's traditional monopoly of Caspian energy resources. The Russians, alarmed at US encroachment into Central Asia, especially since Sept. 11, 2001, are now making determined efforts to recover their influence - along with access to Caspian oil and to military bases - in the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan. The Americans cannot afford to have Georgia plunged into turmoil again. In recent weeks there have been coup attempts in Sao Tome, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Mauritania in West Africa, a region which is expected within five years to be producing 15 percent of the United States' oil imports. The oilfields, mainly offshore in the Atlantic Ocean, can supply oil to the US East Coast far faster than the Gulf - 10 days against up to two months - which gives them added strategic value. But the oil wealth that US and European oil companies are racing to develop in the region seems to be the cause of a chain reaction of unrest as political rivals squabble over the riches that are suddenly descending on these countries, some of the poorest in the world, and in several cases ruled by dictators just as brutal in their way as Saddam Hussein. These, too, are now supported by the US. (SNIP) The union problems remain unresolved and more trouble probably lies ahead for Norway, the world's third biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia. It pumps 200 million cubic meters of gas per day to continental Europe and Britain. Russia, which now rivals Saudi Arabia as the world's top producer, can no longer pick up any slack in global output. Its crude oil exports have hit a ceiling after several years of growth and Moscow cannot raise shipments unless new pipelines are built. US relations with Saudi Arabia and other key producers, such as Russia and Venezuela, have deteriorated and this growing antagonism will keep the issue of oil supplies on a knife-edge for months to come, possibly longer. With the Gulf facing growing turmoil and Asia's demand for oil increasing, prices are likely to be pushed back above $40 a barrel, despite recent dips. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Yahoo! Domains - Claim yours for only $14.70 http://us.click.yahoo.com/Z1wmxD/DREIAA/yQLSAA/FGYolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Biofuel at Journey to Forever: http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html Biofuels list archives: http://infoarchive.net/sgroup/biofuel/ Please do NOT send Unsubscribe messages to the list address. To unsubscribe, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/biofuel/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
