hi hakan.
i don't know the figures, but the oil production in iraq since desert storm has been a very small piece of the pie, much diminished from what it had been. i can't argue, though, with the impact of both increased demand from emerging economies and the decline in the value of the $u.s.
but in my view, this only underscores my point. because adding a major military conflict (it doesn't matter how brief or easy they thought it would be: an invasion of a country by a force in excess of 150000 personnel is a major conflict, no matter how you care to dissect it) smack in the midst of the world's primary oil production area, to this already volatile economic situation should only have had a much greater impact on oil prices than a single storm. a storm which *might* afffect one of the lesser oil-producing areas by disrupting some of its production.
the point i'm trying to make is that they--those who control the oil/energy industry--will stubbornly refuse to view the iraq situation as putting a large part of world supply at risk. if you were to apply this rationale, the price of oil would spike in a manner that would provoke public outrage and a dramatic change of the american public's attitude regarding the iraq war.
chris b.
-----Original Message-----
From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 06:43:31 +0200
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] ASPO on the Economic near-Future
From: Hakan Falk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
Sent: Wed, 06 Jul 2005 06:43:31 +0200
Subject: Re: [Biofuel] ASPO on the Economic near-Future
Chris b,
The fact is that the oil price has gone up very much thanks to the Iraq venture. The oil production in Iraq, before the occupation, was almost as large as what they call the "swing production", or with other words the cushion that evened out production and demand. The biggest problem and
reason, has also been the US filling up their strategic storage, which was going down due to the war. Bush has been filling up, independent of the price of the day.
With the "swing production" gone and higher demand from China and India, the price have moved up in a steady way and will continue to do so. It is also interesting to note that the high oil price is mainly a US problem and countries that pegged their currencies to the greenback. In many other currencies, the oil price has not gone up that much. This because the dollar lost significantly in value, 0.89 dollar for one Euro, before the war, has changed to 1.25 to 1.35. This mean that EU is less effected by the higher oil price in dollar.
One reason for the low response at the time of the war, was the general opinion that US would gain and be able to stabilize the oil supplies rapidly. This has not happened and in combination with that, it was discovered that a large part of the "general oil reserves" was paperwork. It is much worse times to come and maybe a serious US lead depression will be necessary to establish lower oil demand levels. On the other hand, it might nor help, since the growth in China and India, will outstrip the effects of a depression. A depression will probably hit US, but it has more to do with adjustments to a new world economic balance.
The forgiveness of the African debts, is necessary and sound adjustments of the books, not our leaders sudden rebirth and alter egoistic mood.
Hakan
At 03:29 AM 7/6/2005, you wrote:
>i've never heard this term of 'the bilderbergers' before, but i don't find >teh notion too farfetched. more likely to me that their idea of >safeguarding supply is simply to make it more expensive, regardless of >whether it provokes economic downturn or depression. take the fact that >oil prices spiked again simply because of this tropical storm in the gulf >right now; the rationale being that it could disrupt supply.
>
>how do people swallow this bunk? by the same reasoning, oil should have >surpassed $75/bbl the very day we invaded iraq.
>
>as far as your last comment is concerned, isn't it interesting that left >wing parties and labor movements were far more widespread and mainstream >*prior to (and during)* the great depression than *after* (this is >especially true of the situation in the u.s.a.).?
>
>-chris b.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Ken Provost <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>Sent: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 17:52:06 -0700
>Subject: [Biofuel] ASPO on the Economic near-Future
>
>
> >From the latest ASPO Newsletter:
>
><http://www.peakoil.net/>http://www.peakoil.net/
>
>
> > Expect a severe downturn in the world's economy over
> > the next two years as Bilderbergers try to safeguard
> > the remaining oil supply by taking money out of people's
> > hands. In a recession or, at worst, a depression, the
> > population will be forced to dramatically cut down their
> > spending habits, thus ensuring a longer supply of oil to
> > the world's rich as they try to figure out what to do.
>
>
>
>I know, your eyes glaze over when you hear anything about
>the Bilderbergers :-) Interesting idea, tho. My Dad was
>poor enough in the Great Depression that hey traded with
>their Polish neighbors for sauerkraut and potatoes. OTOH,
>my Mom was sort of aristocracy, and the same event hardly
>even broke their stride! Funny how economic downturn may
>even be in the best interest of the world's richest....
>
>-K
>
>
>_______________________________________________
>Biofuel mailing list
><mailto:Biofuel%40sustainablelists.org>Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org
>
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><http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html>http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html
>
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><http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/>http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
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>
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The fact is that the oil price has gone up very much thanks to the Iraq venture. The oil production in Iraq, before the occupation, was almost as large as what they call the "swing production", or with other words the cushion that evened out production and demand. The biggest problem and
reason, has also been the US filling up their strategic storage, which was going down due to the war. Bush has been filling up, independent of the price of the day.
With the "swing production" gone and higher demand from China and India, the price have moved up in a steady way and will continue to do so. It is also interesting to note that the high oil price is mainly a US problem and countries that pegged their currencies to the greenback. In many other currencies, the oil price has not gone up that much. This because the dollar lost significantly in value, 0.89 dollar for one Euro, before the war, has changed to 1.25 to 1.35. This mean that EU is less effected by the higher oil price in dollar.
One reason for the low response at the time of the war, was the general opinion that US would gain and be able to stabilize the oil supplies rapidly. This has not happened and in combination with that, it was discovered that a large part of the "general oil reserves" was paperwork. It is much worse times to come and maybe a serious US lead depression will be necessary to establish lower oil demand levels. On the other hand, it might nor help, since the growth in China and India, will outstrip the effects of a depression. A depression will probably hit US, but it has more to do with adjustments to a new world economic balance.
The forgiveness of the African debts, is necessary and sound adjustments of the books, not our leaders sudden rebirth and alter egoistic mood.
Hakan
At 03:29 AM 7/6/2005, you wrote:
>i've never heard this term of 'the bilderbergers' before, but i don't find >teh notion too farfetched. more likely to me that their idea of >safeguarding supply is simply to make it more expensive, regardless of >whether it provokes economic downturn or depression. take the fact that >oil prices spiked again simply because of this tropical storm in the gulf >right now; the rationale being that it could disrupt supply.
>
>how do people swallow this bunk? by the same reasoning, oil should have >surpassed $75/bbl the very day we invaded iraq.
>
>as far as your last comment is concerned, isn't it interesting that left >wing parties and labor movements were far more widespread and mainstream >*prior to (and during)* the great depression than *after* (this is >especially true of the situation in the u.s.a.).?
>
>-chris b.
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Ken Provost <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>Sent: Mon, 04 Jul 2005 17:52:06 -0700
>Subject: [Biofuel] ASPO on the Economic near-Future
>
>
> >From the latest ASPO Newsletter:
>
><http://www.peakoil.net/>http://www.peakoil.net/
>
>
> > Expect a severe downturn in the world's economy over
> > the next two years as Bilderbergers try to safeguard
> > the remaining oil supply by taking money out of people's
> > hands. In a recession or, at worst, a depression, the
> > population will be forced to dramatically cut down their
> > spending habits, thus ensuring a longer supply of oil to
> > the world's rich as they try to figure out what to do.
>
>
>
>I know, your eyes glaze over when you hear anything about
>the Bilderbergers :-) Interesting idea, tho. My Dad was
>poor enough in the Great Depression that hey traded with
>their Polish neighbors for sauerkraut and potatoes. OTOH,
>my Mom was sort of aristocracy, and the same event hardly
>even broke their stride! Funny how economic downturn may
>even be in the best interest of the world's richest....
>
>-K
>
>
>_______________________________________________
>Biofuel mailing list
><mailto:Biofuel%40sustainablelists.org>Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org
>
>Biofuel at Journey to Forever:
><http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html>http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html
>
>Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages):
><http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/>http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
>
>
>_______________________________________________
>Biofuel mailing list
>Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
>http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org
>
>Biofuel at Journey to Forever:
>http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html
>
>Search the combined Biofuel and Biofuels-biz list archives (50,000 messages):
>http://www.mail-archive.com/biofuel@sustainablelists.org/
_______________________________________________
Biofuel mailing list
Biofuel@sustainablelists.org
http://sustainablelists.org/mailman/listinfo/biofuel_sustainablelists.org
Biofuel at Journey to Forever:
http://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html
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