~$65 per barrel US by EOY 2005
IF this prediction holds, then ~$77 per barrel US by sometime in the
range of Dec06 to March07.
...and it is never going back down to the ~$30-$40 range unless
something very surprising happens.
These predictions are based on models I've made which include the
effects of the economic growth of China and the US-Iraq war. They do
not include what the effect would be if a substantial percentage of
the world's dino-diesel and gasoline use was replaced by biodiesel
use, nor do I claim to have any understanding as to how high that
percentage would have to be to significantly impact crude oil prices.
The Biodiesel community should be galvanized by current oil price
trends since, even without these predictions, biodiesel should be an
economically viable competitor to gas and dino-diesel (Unless Dr
Pimentel et. al. at Cornell are correct.).
Yet I'm not seeing nearly the traffic on this list as I'd expect on
serious efforts to gear up mass biodiesel production:
A- Better crop choices, including breeding or genetically engineering for such
B- Better production processes, both in terms of efficiency and safety
C- Better _mass_ production processes, ditto
D- Better engines, including ideas like biodiesel / electric hybrids.
E- Better vehicles in general
Not to mention conservation topics:
F- Getting what's on the road to be cleaner and more efficient no
matter what they use as fuel.
G- Figuring out ways to reduce our use of oil, particularly foreign
oil (using non local sources of energy is not as sustainable as using
local ones.)
and
H- where are the biodiesel mass production start up companies? Why
aren'y we hearing about more of them or more about the ones that do exist?
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