Oil Expert: Output Downhill From Here

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By Ted Sickinger, The Oregonian, Portland, Ore. 

 
Feb. 27--Few petroleum geologists qualify as celebrities.
 But Ken Deffeyes, a former Shell Oil geologist who is
 now a professor emeritus of geosciences at Princeton 
University, recently sold out Portland's First Congregational
 Church, where he came to lecture on his latest book, "Beyond Oil." 

Before Princeton, Deffeyes worked as a researcher in the 
labs of Shell Oil and taught at the University of Minnesota 
and Oregon State University. At Shell, he worked with the
now-famous petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert. Hubbert
 coined what is fast becoming a fixture in the modern 
lexicon -- "peak oil" -- when he predicted that U.S. oil
 production would peak in the early 1970s and decline
thereafter. Widely criticized at the time, Hubbert has
 since been vindicated. 

Building on Hubbert's hypotheses, Deffeyes recently 
theorized that world oil production peaked Dec. 16, 2005,
 and has begun its permanent decline, with economic 
disruptions to follow. 

Deffeyes sat down with The Oregonian last week to 
discuss his book and the peak oil phenomenon. His
comments have been edited for length and clarity. 

What's the basic math behind your forecast that world
 oil production peaked Dec. 16? 



full article

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