Movements Without Leaders: What to Make of Change on an Overheating Planet
Monday, 19 August 2013 10:32
By Bill McKibben, TomDispatch | Op-Ed
<http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/18271-movements-without-leaders-what-to-make-of-change-on-an-overheating-planet>
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<http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/18301-climate-change-is-happening-faster-than-you-think>
Climate Change Is Happening Faster Than You Think
Tuesday, 20 August 2013 14:44
By The Daily Take, The Thom Hartmann Program | Op-Ed
The scientists are wrong, but not the way you think.
As global warming picks up, scientists and researchers are finally
coming to grips with just how serious that problem is, and how
quickly we're running out of time to solve it.
For example, when it comes to sea level increases, scientists have
notoriously underestimated how fast the waters are rising.
As this chart shows, sea levels are rising much faster than IPCC
projections over the last two decades.
Scientists also underestimated the extent of ice melting in the
Arctic. It's disappearing at a much faster clip than even the direst
of projections.
In just a few years, we'll have our first ice-free Arctic summer in
roughly 700,000 years, well before the onset of humanity.
On top of all of that, scientists have also consistently
underestimated just how much CO2 we humans are dumping into the
atmosphere, again with actual measurements outpacing projections over
the last few decades.
So what's with the history of underestimation?
A team of researchers at the University of Alberta recently published
a paper in the journal Global Environmental Change characterizing
this dangerous trend of low-balling estimates of global warming.
They note that, "[T]he available evidence suggests that scientists
have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impact of
climate changeparticularly in IPCC assessments of the physical
science[S]cientists are not biased toward alarmism but rather the
reverse: toward cautious estimatesWe call this tendency 'erring on
the side of least drama.'"
Why is this happening?
It's simple: When going up against a well-funded, ruthlessly powerful
special interest like the fossil fuel industry, scientists know that
if they rock the boat too much, they might be targeted and
discredited.
Just ask Michael Mann, whose infamous "Hockey Stick" chart shows the
recent extreme uptick in global temperatures since the Industrial
Revolution.
After releasing the "hockey stick" graph, he instantly became the
target of smears and was mercilessly attacked by Conservatives and
fossil-fuel industry shills.
For far too long, our climate change debate has been focused on not
ruffling feathers, on finding economically viable solutions, on
depending on the oil companies to lead the energy transition.
That hasn't worked, and the planet is getting hotter even quicker.
The latest IPCC projection shows at least a 5-degree Celsius
temperature increase by 2100, and even if countries around the world
reduce carbon emissions, the planet will still warm over 2-degrees,
which will have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth.
But, given the history of low projections, the planet could be headed
for even warmer temperatures.
Fortunately, over the past year, some scientists have said, "To hell
with the right wingers. I'm going to tell the truth even if it does
mean they will attack me!"
Now it's time for the rest of us, and our politicians, to also speak
back to the big-money interests who don't seem to give a damn about
planet Earth.
Global warming and global climate change, whatever you call it, is
real. It's caused by us, in large part. And we can stop it, if we act
quickly enough. The time for dithering is over. It's time to act.
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