Wow! Great analysis
I never realized it but I may be "payback period" gifted :)
W/O reading anything about analysis of payback period, I
picked #1 followed closely by #3, with #2 a distant third.
Reasoning:
-Replacing/building with existing parts and within one's
ability to succeed (#s 1 & 3) vs (#2) hauling a
refrigerator 45 minutes each way on two round trips to
have the refrigerant removed before spending an
additional 16 hours of time removing, installing,
modifying.
#1: A morning or afternoon or evening project w. little/no
cash outlay to repair something you know works.
#3: A good day project; $100 for materials on a proven
technology
vs
#2: 2 mornings/afternoons travelling
2 good days' work
$180 additional in materials, fuel and services.
My thinking generally goes:
- will it work?
- can I do it?
- will it decrease my demand for fossil fuels?
- can I afford it?
Thinking my way, and if I had the ability, I would do
all three projects you mentioned, doing #2 then #3 (as
this is summer) and complete #1 as cool weather
approached.
I know there is value in analysis -----> payback period,
and I know that I am stubborn, but if everyone who could
afford solar or wind "capture" systems did so, the prices
would come down so that more could afford, etc.
Thanks for all you do,
Tom
> Thanks Tom for the opportunity to focus some thoughts in
> need of some
> mental herding.
>
> Suppose I have 3 not-so-hypothetical projects available to
> me, and I
> need to decide which to tackle first. (Invalid
> assumptions used for
> simplicity of the exercise: I have the time; additional
> manpower is
> available for free from other household members; no parts
> are made of
> unobtainium.) All should reduce carbon emissions
> slightly, but I'm not
> taking the relative GHG values into account.
>
> 1) Solar heating system repair.
>
> The blower motor on my existing system caught fire last
> fall. Due to
> good luck and some good design, no damage to anything
> other than the
> electric motor. I now have a surplus furnace fan motor
> on-hand which
> looks like a reasonable substitute.
>
> Estimated cost of project: 4 hours of my time (let's call
> it $25/hour
> due to no taxes on work I do for myself).
>
> Estimated return: about $200 annually of heating fuel.
>
> Risk: motor may not fit, solution may not work - assign
> 50% probability.
>
> Payback period: 1 year [($100 deemed labour cost /
> ($200/year fuel
> saving x 50% success probability)]
>
> 2) Solar water heater rebuild
>
> The insulating box for my batch solar water heater rotted
> out a few
> years ago. It saved me about 6 months of water heating
> fuel a year. We
> are about to replace our refrigerator, and I think the old
> one (which
> has multiple issues) could make a good candidate
> replacement box. I
> have the donor fridge on hand, and a piece of thermo-pane
> tempered glass
> that looks about the right size as the collector glazing
> (measurements
> are required, but I'm feeling optimistic this morning).
>
> Estimated cost of project:
> a) take fridge to appliance service depot, have
> refrigerant removed by
> authorized personnel (estimate $60), return to pickup the
> emptied unit
> ($20 vehicle fuel for 2 round trips, 3 hours travel time @
> $25/hour) > $155
> b) labour to remove unwanted parts, add insulation, modify
> door to
> accept thermo-pane glass, fit new hardware, install tank
> (16 hours @
> $25) > $400
> c) additional hardware, insulation, reflective material,
> paint > $100
> Total: $655
>
> Estimated return: $120/year
>
> Risk: glass may not fit - assume 95% chance of success
>
> Payback period: 5.2 years [($655 x .95) / $120/year]
>
> 3) Temporary PV panel install
>
> My son is storing a number of PV panels in my back yard
> which he won at
> auction, plus I have 2 surplus golf-car batteries (about 1
> kWh storage)
> and a 1000-watt true-sine inverter (for use in power
> outages). If I
> build a frame to carry the panels in my sun-facing back
> yard, I can
> create some summer shading and take my freezers off-grid.
> (Additional
> assumption - son won't need at least 6 of the panels for
> at least 4
> years based on current life plan.)
>
> Estimated cost: 8 hours design, construction and wiring
> ($200), plus
> $100 in framing materials, cabling, connectors, etc. >
> $300
>
> Estimated return: $91.25/ year (0.6 kWh/day x 365 days/yr
> x $0.15/kWh)
>
> Payback period: 3.3 years [$300 / $91.25/year]
>
> Sadly, the project that most excites me (#2) has the worst
> payback of
> the 3. Payback period says project #1 should be my
> priority, with #3
> getting second place on the 'todo' list. In fact, the
> payback on #2 is
> so bad, I'm now considering putting the seasonal water
> pre-heater at a
> seasonal residence, where it will be a better match
> (supply/demand), and
> could put off another upgrade (antique small electric
> water heater) at
> that location currently estimated at $500 initial outlay,
> and about $15
> a month (4 months/ year).
>
> [Project 4: rebuild solar water heater for seasonal
> property)
>
> Estimate cost: $700 ($655 from #2 above, additional fuel
> and install costs)
>
> Estimate return: $500 deferred other expenditure +
> $60/year
>
> Payback: 3.2 years [($700 - $500) x .95 / $60/year]
>
> Project 4 - invented in the course of this exercise, is
> now the 2nd
> priority based on payback period (but eliminates Project 2
> due to
> resource constraint - only parts for one solar water
> heater on hand).
>
> 2 of the projects reduce heating fuel consumption, and 2
> reduce
> electricity consumption, but I can compare them based on
> dollars as a
> common unit. Try to be fair and honest in building your
> assumptions to
> get a useful result. Payback period likely won't be your
> only tool in
> prioritizing projects, but I find it useful.
>
> I hope this helps.
>
> Darryl
>
> On 25/06/2014 8:29 AM, Thomas Kelly wrote:
>> Hello Darryl,
>>
>> You wrote: Personally, I love 'payback period' as a
>> means
>> of ranking different alternative projects open to me,
>> .....
>>
>> Out of curiosity, could you give an example?
>> Maybe I should rethink how I do things.
>> Tom
>>
>>> Hi Thomas,
>>>
>>> sadly, such examples are still sufficiently rare that
>>> they
>>> still
>>> constitute news, and small enough they only warrant
>>> local
>>> coverage if
>>> any at all. When I find these nuggets, I like to
>>> share,
>>> in hopes they
>>> will inspire other 'small' victories.
>>>
>>> Regarding the math, I think the reporter jumbled 2
>>> things
>>> together which
>>> create confusion. My reading is that Mr. Sperling
>>> figures
>>> a $50,000
>>> investment will allow him to produce most of his
>>> electricity and recoup
>>> his investment in about 2 years from avoided utility
>>> costs. The
>>> reporter doesn't spell that out before shifting
>>> conversation to the U.S.
>>> Vegawatt example, which only proposes to provide 10-25%
>>> of
>>> the power
>>> used by their example customer restaurant (not Mr.
>>> Sperling's operation).
>>>
>>> Personally, I love 'payback period' as a means of
>>> ranking
>>> different
>>> alternative projects open to me, but it isn't the only
>>> factor that bears
>>> on my decisions (personal interest, satisfaction,
>>> learning
>>> potential,
>>> ease of implementation, risk factors, impacts on
>>> existing
>>> situation and
>>> others are at least as important). There has to be
>>> some
>>> way to put a
>>> value on beauty (not necessarily in dollars), or we
>>> would
>>> not build art
>>> galleries or put up pictures on our walls.
>>>
>>> Darryl
>>>
>>> On 17/06/2014 9:25 AM, Thomas Kelly wrote:
>>>> Darryl,
>>>> Thanks for articles such as these. It's nice to
>>>> hear
>>>> about people who do things. They talk, they listen,
>>>> but
>>>> ultimately they act. Whether it's putting something to
>>>> work that they would otherwise discard, or
>>>> about someone who scratches in the dirt to grow food
>>>> they will eat, without first poisoning it.
>>>>
>>>> I have a problem with the term "payback period".
>>>>
>>>> We don't ask about "payback period" when we go on
>>>> vacation, or buy a car with all the options. Does
>>>> the gardener really calculate the payback period for
>>>> the time and cost of planting and tending the garden?
>>>> Why would anyone plant flower beds?
>>>> My experience is that "payback period" is often
>>>> used
>>>> an
>>>> excuse for inaction. Blessings to those who read,
>>>> listen and learn, calculate feasibility and then act
>>>> with
>>>> the understanding that sustainability is the goal and
>>>> joy
>>>> is part of the payoff.
>>>>
>>>> Actually another problem:
>>>> Article states that:
>>>> -cost will be about $50,000
>>>> -savings will be about $10,000/year ($900/mo)
>>>> -payback will be within 2 years
>>>>
>>>> Are there tax incentives or is this a simple
>>>> miscalculation as it would seem that payback would be
>>>> about 5 years at their savings.
>>>> (Nothing wrong with a 5 year payback as a diesel
>>>> generator will live long past that)
>>>>
>>>> Thanks again,
>>>> Tom
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> http://www.leaderpost.com/life/Restaurateur+energized+veggie/9935141/story.html
>>>>>
>>>>> Regina restaurateur energized by old veggie oil
>>>>>
>>>>> By Natascia Lypny, The Leader-Post June 13, 2014
>>>>>
>>>>> A Regina restaurateur thinks the leftover grease from
>>>>> french fries, fish
>>>>> and chips, and other greasy goodies could be the
>>>> solution
>>>>> to
>>>>> Saskatchewan's power grid strain.
>>>>>
>>>>> Adam Sperling, owner of La Bodega and Slow Pub,
>>>> envisions
>>>>> a Regina
>>>>> powered by restaurants' waste vegetable oil.
>>>>>
>>>>> "Right now all that is, is a drain on power," he said
>>>>> of
>>>>> the city's
>>>>> expanding restaurant scene. "It's draining our grid.
>>>>> We
>>>>> can turn that
>>>>> into a power resource."
>>>>>
>>>>> The Environment Advisory Committee member plans to
>>>>> bring
>>>>> forward a
>>>>> motion that the city conduct a feasibility study
>>>> involving
>>>>> a pilot
>>>>> project of vegetable oil electricity generation at
>>>>> three
>>>>> locations of
>>>>> varying size. Thursday's committee meeting was
>>>> cancelled,
>>>>> but Sperling
>>>>> plans to bring the motion up the next time the
>>>>> committee
>>>>> sits.
>>>>>
>>>>> It's an idea the restaurateur has been picking away
>>>>> at
>>>> for
>>>>> a decade.
>>>>> According to his research, a generator would cost
>>>> $50,000
>>>>> installed. In
>>>>> a restaurant with one deep fryer, such as La Bodega,
>>>>> the
>>>>> generator would
>>>>> pay for itself within two years, then practically nix
>>>> the
>>>>> restaurant's
>>>>> power bill, said Sperling.
>>>>>
>>>>> His vision for the generator is ambitious. Vegawatt,
>>>>> a
>>>>> similar machine
>>>>> developed by a Massachusetts company, advertises
>>>>> itself
>>>> as
>>>>> providing
>>>>> 10-25 per cent of a restaurant's power and cutting
>>>>> its
>>>>> monthly power
>>>>> bill by $890. No examples of such a product exist in
>>>>> Canada.
>>>>>
>>>>> Currently, waste vegetable oil is picked up from
>>>>> restaurants, then
>>>>> reused for cosmetics, biodiesel and on roads to
>>>>> control
>>>>> dust.
>>>>>
>>>>> Sperling hopes the pilot leads to the eventual
>>>>> installation of
>>>>> generators at all Regina restaurants and food vendors
>>>> with
>>>>> two or more
>>>>> deep fryers.
>>>>>
>>>>> "This is an opportunity for Regina and for SaskPower
>>>>> to
>>>> be
>>>>> leaders and
>>>>> innovators in recycling and being sustainable, and
>>>>> relieving the power
>>>>> grid of so much stress," he said.
>>>>>
>>>>> SaskPower's grid is currently strained under the
>>>> pressures
>>>>> of increased
>>>>> demand due to a growing population and the age of the
>>>>> infrastructure.
>>>>> Its sections average 30 to 50 years old, said
>>>>> spokesman
>>>>> Tyler Hopson.
>>>>> "At the current time, expanding our generation fleet
>>>>> is
>>>>> something
>>>>> SaskPower is interested in doing, something we have
>>>>> to
>>>> do
>>>>> as the
>>>>> province grows in terms of population and demand for
>>>> power
>>>>> increases,"
>>>>> he said, adding the situation's not critical.
>>>>>
>>>>> Sperling's idea is far from fruition. He hasn't
>>>> developed
>>>>> the machine,
>>>>> nor discussed it with SaskPower. The corporation,
>>>> though,
>>>>> is open to
>>>>> innovation, said Hopson. While he couldn't comment on
>>>> this
>>>>> particular
>>>>> idea, Hopson said SaskPower accepts unsolicited
>>>> proposals.
>>>>> It also has a
>>>>> Small Power Producers Program by which people can
>>>> generate
>>>>> electricity
>>>>> either to offset their own bill or to sell to
>>>>> SaskPower.
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
>>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
>>>>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
>>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
>>>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
>>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Darryl McMahon
>>> Project Manager,
>>> Common Assessment and Referral for Enhanced Support
>>> Services (CARESS)
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
>>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
>>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
>>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
>> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
>> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
>>
>
> --
> Darryl McMahon
> Project Manager,
> Common Assessment and Referral for Enhanced Support
> Services (CARESS)
> _______________________________________________
> Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
> Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
> http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
>
_______________________________________________
Sustainablelorgbiofuel mailing list
Sustainablelorgbiofuel@lists.sustainablelists.org
http://lists.eruditium.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/sustainablelorgbiofuel
