The analysis by Cringely is a fascinating one but I see several weaknesses in his argument.
First, bandwidth is not unlimited and cannot increase by 50% per year for very long. Physics tells us that either you make the pipe bigger or eventually you will run out of room. Making bigger pipes is very expensive. One look at Verizon's balance sheet and the amount of investment they have made in fiber optics should make that clear. Can you improve the compression, efficiency, etc.? Yep, and the cable providers (for example) will shed their analog service and other things to do it, but a day of reckoning is coming. (Aside: If Verizon was making the same decision today (in this economy) about investing in their "FiOS" network, they wouldn't do it.) Secondly, even if we assume he's right about the long term direction of Apple, Microsoft, and the TV networks today I wouldn't assume the disadvantaged players will not make some adjustment to changing reality. They may or may not, but assuming they won't is not a safe bet. Likewise, I wouldn't assume Apple has this quite so neatly figured out. (If he's right, I assume Cringely is buying up Apple stock right and left and you should, too!) Lastly, if Steve Jobs sits on the Disney board and is the largest shareholder, do we really think that Disney/ABC will be allowed to wither while Apple eats up the market? That would be strange to say the least so when Disney/ABC changes its direction the other networks won't notice? Don't bet on it. -- -Rob de Santos -----Original Message----- From: Richard Cuff [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 5:11 PM To: Shortwave programming discussion Subject: Re: [Swprograms] OT: Future of Digital Radio I suspect that first-run, "must-see TV (and movies)" will support this model, but I believe that subscription models (Netflix, Rhapsody) will retain a significant niche for a "value" consumer that doesn't care about last night's "American Idle" episode. I suspect TiVo - which would make use of today's cable delivery platform - will remain important. This will help give cable TV a reason to exist, even if only a small percent of people watch a TV show "live". I believe digital OTA TV will largely be a bust. The number of people who will want to limit their access to OTA channels will continue to drop as those who were brought up on three or four networks die off...much like young people listen less to radio nowadays than young people did in years past, and less than their older kinfolk (like us). When it comes to cable and Internet access, you are now seeing a tiering of broadband Internet access - with DSL starting as low as $15 / month and FIOS at the high end. Watch out for mobile broadband...I suspect that will become reasonably ubiquitous within 5-7 years' time. You read it here first...good luck with that! Richard Cuff / Allentown, PA ------------------------------ http://www.cringely.com/2009/05/the-future-of-internet-tv-in-america/ http://www.cringely.com/2009/05/the-future-of-television-part-ii/ _______________________________________________ Swprograms mailing list [email protected] http://montreal.kotalampi.com/mailman/listinfo/swprograms To unsubscribe: Send an E-mail to [email protected]?subject=unsubscribe, or visit the URL shown above.
