If the area is higher risk than an adjacent area then encouraging people
to go from the high risk area to the low risk are will simply increase
the risk for those who were in what was a lower risk area.
For an individual this is great idea.
For the community as a whole this is an extremely bad idea.
Best to encourage self isolation, this would encourage travel outside
the normal area... wrong idea.
On 20/3/20 4:42 pm, Pietro Michelucci wrote
Hi All,
*
*
We have an unconventional, but well-vetted idea for tackling this
pandemic that needs your help!
*
*
Imagine if people could compare the virus exposure risks associated
with different daily travel destinations? Would you drive an extra
mile for beer if it meant going to a store with a lower coronavirus
infection risk?
*
*
The single greatest determinant of a pandemic’s toll is human
behavior, not how contagious or deadly a virus is. We think there's a
way to reduce global risks while increasing individual autonomy,
avoiding compulsory lockdowns and other extreme measures with
questionable effectiveness.
*
*
For example, if a person intends to shop for groceries and is provided
with alternative destinations that have lower exposure risks, they
might be sufficiently motivated to drive further so they can shop at a
location where they are less likely to become infected. So one
implementation of this approach involves extending a navigation app to
display the estimated transmission risks associated with a set of
similar destinations.
*
*
This is where we need your help. We (including an epidemiologist,
virologist, and population flow scientist) are developing an open
source destination risk estimator that relies on a virus model, venue
model (grocery store, movie theater, etc), and real-time population
flow data. We’d like to embed that in navigation apps so people can
make informed decisions about where (and when) to go places to reduce
their virus exposure risks.
Here's an example of what this might look like:
If there is anyone interested in this idea, perhaps you could help us
identify an OSM-based platform that could be used to pilot this? And,
of course, we'd welcome any other feedback.
Ultimately, we would like this capability to be deployed in as many
navigation apps as possible. Microsoft is supporting the development
of our risk model without any strings attached, and through that
relationship, we may be able to provide access to realtime population
data via a traffic flow API.
I realize some may view corporate involvement as antithetical to the
open source movement, but we envision an inclusive future for data
science that derives successes from synergies between the cathedral
*and* the bazaar. Read more about our approach at civium.io
<http://civium.io>.
If you are on board, we'd love to have you involved to help pioneer
this pandemic intervention. As they say, "it takes a village".
Best wishes,
Pietro
Human Computation Institute <http://hcinst.org/>
Pietro Michelucci, PhD / Director
[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> / 571.235.3288
Human Computation Institute
http://humancomputation.org <http://humancomputation.org/>
Facebook <https://about.me/pmichelu>Twitter
<https://twitter.com/pmichelu>Linkedin
<https://www.linkedin.com/in/michelucci>
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